The Note: The Future Usually Goes Up and Down

— -- WASHINGTON, Apr. 13

Say you are White House press secretary Scott McClellan and you come back from your office after one of those why-are-they-now-so-much-longer-than-they-used-to-be-? meetings and on the top of your stack of pink telephone message slips is one that catches your eye.

It says, "Nedra Pickler, Associated Press, she says it is *super* urgent."So you say to yourself, "Huh. Nedra doesn't call up here much any more (what with our having broken her spirit, like everyone else's), and when she does, she never says it is 'urgent.' So something must be up."

So then you go on kinkyfriedman.com for a while, just to browse around and laugh at the latest campaign video.

Then, after watching a Robert Pear speech replay on C-SPAN for a bit, you call Pickler back.

Now, with that set-up, our regular Thursday Note quiz.

If you are McClellan, what do you guess, as you dial, is the topic of Ms. Pickler's call?

A. "Do you have any reaction to this latest retired general calling for Secretary Rumsfeld to resign?"
B. "Do you have any reaction to the latest indictment in the Abramoff case?"
C. "Do you have any reaction to the latest report about various top officials, including the President, citing claims about Iraq's pre-war weapons of mass destruction capability that the intelligence reports at the time said were overblown or false?"
D. "Do you have any reaction to the latest rise in gas prices?"
E. "Do you have any reaction to the latest indictment in the Plame case?"
F. "Do you have any reaction to Tom Tancredo's very existence?"
G. "Do you have any reaction to the Gang of 500's widespread belief that you yourself are moving on to greener pastures?"
H. "Do you have any reaction to Senator Clinton's vision for a new American economy?"
I. "Do you have any reaction to David Sanger's story on Iran?"
J. "Do you have any reaction to David Sanger's story on North Korea?"
K. "Do you have any reaction to what Senator Hagel said?"

Luckily for you, it is none of those. Instead, it is a question to which your response is clear and sweet.

Pickler: Do you have any reaction to the latest poll showing the President's approval ratings in the toilet?
McClellan: The polls will go up, the polls will go down. The President is going about his hard work on behalf of the American people. The only poll the President cares about is the one on Election Day.

If that last point is true, then the President should be awfully glad that Election Day was not conducted last Saturday through Tuesday, which are the precise dates of the new Bloomberg/Los Angeles Times poll, which shows that if the election were held those days, things might not have turned out so well for Mr. Bush.

According to the poll, Massachusetts Senator John Forbes Kerry (distinguished war hero, former prosecutor, loving husband and father, owner of homes in many nice places, the man who caught Noriega with his bare hands and on his own passed several vital fishery and hatchery laws -- that John F. Kerry) would beat George Walker Bush in a rematch by ten points. LINK

"One final question offered perhaps the most dramatic expression of the nation's discontent with Bush's second term," writes the Los Angeles Times' Ron Brownstein.

"Asked whom they would support today in a rerun of the 2004 presidential election, 39% of registered voters picked Bush, whereas 49% said they preferred the man the president defeated only 17 months ago," writes Brownstein, failing to include any Electoral College analysis that might show the President still winning 270 electoral votes under this scenario.

The new poll features more hideous, and-now-routine numbers for the President and his party, as well as interesting data on Iran and immigration (see below for that other stuff).

But it is just a snapshot of a nation and the man who leads it -- President Bush, who makes 10:45 am ET remarks to the Small Business Administration's National Small Business Week conference at the Ronald Reagan Building in Washington, DC. The President and First Lady depart at 1:55 pm ET for Camp David where they will spend the Easter holiday. The President will discuss low taxes, reduced spending, more affordable health care, and expanded business opportunities at home and abroad.

Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger (R-CA) is scheduled to visit a levee in Firebaugh, CA in the (local time) afternoon. Earlier in the day, he discusses the benefits of solar energy with environmental leaders in Sacramento, CA at 1:30 pm ET.

Sen. John McCain (R-AZ) will be in Iowa today -- a state whose presidential contest he skipped in 2000 to focus on New Hampshire.

Sen. McCain held an 8:30 am ET open press breakfast fundraiser in Dyersville, IA for state Rep. Steven Luskan (R-IA).

Sen. McCain attends a 1:00 pm ET luncheon fundraiser for gubernatorial candidate Rep. Jim Nussle (R-IA) at the Crowne Plaza Hotel in Cedar Rapids, IA. According to Nussle's campaign, they are expecting somewhere between 200-250 people.

Sen. McCain holds a closed press roundtable discussion with Iowa Republican Party donors in Muscatine, IA in the mid-afternoon.

He holds a 6:00 pm ET fundraiser for state Sen. Jeff Lamberti (R-IA), a candidate for Congress, at the Wakonda Club in Des Moines, IA. There will be a press availability following the fundraiser.

Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich speaks to Victory New Hampshire's inaugural leadership forum in New Castle, NH.

Gov. Mitt Romney (R-MA) signs legislation naming a bridge on Route 18 in East Bridgewater in memory of Army Corporal Gordon M. Craig, who gave his life to save four fellow soldiers in Korea in 1950, at 11:00 am ET.

Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice holds a closed meeting at the State Department with the governors of Florida, Iowa, West Virginia, and Indiana -- all of whom are traveling to the Middle East, South Asia, and Belgium.

Sen. Dick Durbin (D-IL) and Rep. George Miller (D-CA) join the Campaign for America's Future on a 2:30 pm ET conference call with reporters to discuss college affordability.

The Senate is in recess until April 24; the House is in recess until April 25.

"Commander in Chief" returns Thursday night at 10 pm ET on the ABC television network, as President Mackenzie Allen (Geena Davis) breaks with history and delivers her first State of the Union from an unlikely location. Perhaps overshadowing the President's vision for the country is the mention of The Note by a young DNC intern in the first five minutes of the episode.

(And, no, we aren't kidding. True Note fans, Googling monkeys, and Nielsen families, please tune in.)

Bloomberg/LAT Poll:
Ron Brownstein's write up of the latest Los Angeles Times/Bloomberg numbers is indeed a must-read so we urge you to read it all. LINK

Brownstein ledes with immigration: "By a solid 2-1 margin, those surveyed said they would prefer such a comprehensive approach, which a bipartisan group of senators has proposed, to an enforcement-only strategy, which the House of Representatives approved in December. Support for a comprehensive approach was about the same among Democrats, independents and Republicans, the poll found."

Brownstein on the midterms: "Although President Bush's job approval rating was essentially unchanged from his 38% showing last month, the new poll found Democrats opening double-digit leads on the key measures of voters' early preferences for the November balloting."

"Democrats lead Republicans 49% to 35% among registered voters who were asked which party they intended to support in their congressional districts this fall. When registered voters were asked which party they hoped would control the House and Senate after the midterm election, 51% picked the Democrats and 38% the GOP."

(And be sure to Note the caveats and assertions related to 1994!)But it is Doyle McManus' write up of the question about trusting President Bush to make the "right decision" on Iran that may prove most startling: LINK

"Americans are divided over the prospect of U.S. military action against Iran if the government in Tehran continues to pursue nuclear technology -- and a majority do not trust President Bush to make the "right decision" on that issue, a Los Angeles Times/Bloomberg poll has found."

Bloomberg's Przybyla and Keil write up the poll and Note that while 62% of Americans aren't happy with President Bush's policies, 61% still like him as a person. LINK

Bloomberg's Johnston and Simon report that while Republican politicians are split on the immigration issue, the Bloomberg/Los Angeles poll shows that 64% of Republican voters favor, "legislation that combines tougher enforcement of immigration laws with new temporary-worker programs." LINK

Janine Zacharia of Bloomberg looks at polling numbers and sees that, "37 percent (of Americans) said they believe Bush when he says a lot of progress is being made" with Iran while "54 percent said they 'don't trust' Bush to make the right decision about whether the U.S. should go to war with Iran, compared with 42 percent who said they do trust him." LINK

Bush Administration agenda:
The Chicago Tribune's Jeff Zeleny looks at the Laura Bush factor in 2006, in a must-read and ready-for-tv-to-steal way. LINK

"While Bush and Cheney remain popular in most Republican circles and many candidates or office holders would be delighted to host them, there also are districts in some parts of the country where GOP political strategists are fashioning a backup plan to build upon a successful strategy from the 2004 campaign: Send Laura Bush."

Carl P. Leubsdorf of the Dallas Morning News warns against expecting tax reform any time soon.LINK

Rumsfeld rumblings:
"A recent surge in public criticism of Defense Secretary Donald H. Rumsfeld by retired military leaders is the culmination of months of intense but largely private debate among active duty officers about how best to voice dissent over Bush administration policies, according to officers involved in the discussions," write the Los Angeles Times' Spiegel and Richter. LINK

Former Army Maj. Gen. John Batiste became the latest in a series of retired generals to pile on Defense Secretary Rumsfeld. The Washington Post looks at whether the criticism is helpful or damaging. LINK

Helen Kennedy of the New York Daily News calls it "the extraordinary 'Revolt of the Generals'" LINK

Mollohan:
Rep. Alan Mollohan (D-WV) is under the magnifying glass of a government watchdog group for allegedly, "millions of dollars in federal earmarks toward foundations he established and has close links to," per Beth Gorczyca of the State Journal. LINK

The Washington Post's Chris Cillizza has Democrats labeling the anti-Mollohan National Legal & Policy Center as a "right-wing extremist group" and NRCC Chairman Tom Reynolds (R-NY) calling on Mollohan to step down from the House Committee on Standards of Official Conduct. LINK

2006: House:
Keying off of the failure of a massive anti-incumbent mood to wash ashore in Tuesday's special election to replace convicted Rep. Duke Cunningham (R-CA), the Washington Post's Jonathan Weisman reports that Democrats have produced "nearly a dozen strong candidates with the potential for unseating House Republicans, but probably not enough to take back control of the House absent a massive anti-incumbent wave." LINK

Be sure to Note the Washington Post's super handy clip 'n save insert on Democratic House contenders.

In tier one, "races in which Democrats are fielding a candidate universally considered a strong threat to an incumbent," the Washington Post places: State Attorney General Patricia Madrid (New Mexico 1st), Vanderburgh County Sheriff Brad Ellsworth (Indiana 8th), state Sen. Ron Klein (Florida 22nd), law Prof. Lois Murphy (Pennslvania 6th), and former Westport first selectwoman Diane Farrell (Connecticut 4th).

In the second tier, "races in Republican-leaning districts in play on the strength of the Democratic candidate and the national political environment," the Washington Post places: labor lawyer Kirsten Gillibrand (New York 20th), former Tempe Mayor Harry Mitchell (Arizona 5th), state Sen. Christopher Murphy (Connecticut 5th), Franklin County Commissioner Mary Jo Kilroy (Ohio 15th), Cincinnati City Council member John Cranley (Ohio 1st).

In the third tier, "races in swnig districts where Democrats should have recruited stronger candidates," the Washington Post places: lawyer and Iraq veteran Patrick Murphy (Pennsylvania 8th), Iraq war veteran Andrew Horne (Kentucky 3rd), former Senate aide Tessa Hafen (Nevada 3rd), former Microsoft executive Darcy Burner (Washington 8th), and prosecutor Paul Hodes (New Hampshire 2nd).

In the "clear recruiting failures" category, the Washington Post places Pennsylvania 15th, Iowa 4th, and Arizona 1st.

Whatever happened to those "Contract with America" term limits, asks Andrea Stone of USA Today. She Notices that Rep. Jeff Flake (R-AZ) is "one of at least seven House Republicans who had vowed to leave Congress next year but will be on the ballot in November." LINK

Politics of Iraq:
The Washington Post wraps the response to its splashy WMD storyyesterday: LINK

In a Washington Post op-ed, Wade Zirkle, the executive director of Vets for Freedom who served two tours in Iraq with the Marines before being wounded in action, has this to say about Rep. John Murtha (D-PA): "While we don't question his motives, we do question his assumptions. When he called for an immediate withdrawal from Iraq, there was a sense of respectful disagreement among most military personnel. But when he subsequently stated that he would not join today's military, he made clear to the majority of us that he is out of touch with the troops. Quite frankly, it was received as a slap in the face." LINK

The Fitzgerald investigation:
The Washington Post on the latest filing, in which Scooter Libby's lawyers argue that, per Libby's grand jury testimony two years ago, he was not asked by President Bush or Vice President Cheney to leak Valerie Plame's name. LINK

The New York Times catches up to the New York Sun and Washington Post on Fitzgerald's corrected filing. LINK

And be sure to Note the paper's correction of its own. LINK

David Johnston of the New York Times reports on yesterday's defense filing which points to Fitzgerald's mentioning the President and Vice President Cheney's involvement as a reason to allow Libby and his team access to a much broader range of evidence in preparing for his defense. LINK

Bloomberg's Dick Keil on the documents: LINK

Politics of domestic surveillance:
The New York Times reports on the emergence of an AT&T technician's documents detailing how the NSA "works with the private sector in intercepting communications for intelligence purposes." LINK

Politics of immigration:
The Wall Street Journal reports on how the immigration issue is hitting some heartland races: "Immigration is going to be a big issue in some nontraditional states because of the 'culture clash' that residents experience when confronted with Hispanic immigrants. The issue roiled the Virginia governor's campaign last year, with candidates sparring over a day-laborer center in northern Virginia. This year, immigration is expected to be a factor in the governor's race in Ohio." LINK

The Republican Party of New Mexico has launched a radio ad entitled, "Si, Se Puede," which picks up on the Hastert/Frist talking points attempting to blame the Democrats (and their 191 votes in the House) for the felony provision in the House border security bill passed in December.

USA Today's Kathy Kiely on the wrangling to remove the "felony" language in the House's immigration bill (and who wants to keep it). LINK

Leslie Fulbright of the San Francisco Chronicle takes a look at how the immigration issue is playing out among African-American voters and writes that "although polls show frustration in black communities over a perceived loss of low-wage jobs to illegal immigrants, they also indicate the issue is not dampening African Americans' sympathy with the struggles of Latinos." LINK