The Note: Bush Politics Versus Clinton Politics

— -- WASHINGTON, Oct. 18

Why do conservatives think the Old Media is biased against them? Let's see: Could it be the New York Times' poll suggesting GOP doom in Ohio? LINK

Or the Washington Post measuring new drapes for Nancy Pelosi? LINK

Or the Los Angeles Times casually outing senior Republican aides as gay? LINK

Or the obsession with Obama for President? LINK

Or the man Speaker Hastert terms an adviser to Bill Clinton, "Richard" Morris, declaring the House and Senate are going Democratic? LINK

But it is more likely because of the press' steady drumbeat on the Democrats-are-going-to-win-and-the-Iraq-war-is-going-badly-and-North-Korea-is-a-big-problem-and-House-leaders-knew-more-about-Foley-than-they-claim that is defining the meta-narrative for the midterms in the Old Media.

Or maybe it is because of the chips that Democratic-friendly media types have planted into the brains of all the Republican strategists who are spouting downbeat background quotes as fast as any of us can type them up?

Befitting the generation-long cycle of Bush-Clinton-Bush-Clinton politics that has defined American life, ED-Minus 20 brings us another marquee 43-42 matchup:

The big event in the President's day is, of course, his sit-down interview with ABC News' George Stephanopoulos. Iraq, North Korea, Iran, the midterm election are all on the table. Be sure to tune into "World News with Charles Gibson" tonight and "Good Morning America" tomorrow. And then you will not want to miss additional excerpts on "This Week with George Stephanopoulos" on Sunday.

And the other big event occurs when former President Bill Clinton speaks at a Center for American Progress conference at Georgetown University in Washington, DC. The chatfest -- which also features Queen Noor of Jordan and Rep. Kendrick Meek (D-FL) -- was scheduled to begin this morning at 8:15 am ET, with the former President taking to the podium a few minutes before 10:30 am ET.

Per a Clinton intimate: "Marking the 15th anniversary of his New Covenant speech, President Clinton will deliver a major address that will define the progressive governing philosophy that he employed with great success as president and during which America enjoyed unprecedented peace and prosperity in contrast to the extremist policies of the right-wing Republicans who have controlled Washington with such disastrous results. And he will talk about how we as a country get back to a time where our leaders govern based on reason and evidence -- not ideology and attack."

Note predictions: Clinton might not start on time, and he might not take Bush to the woodshed. But the latter is more likely than the former.

(President Bush also discusses No Child Left Behind at Waldo Falkener Elementary School at 2:00 pm ET and attends a private RNC dinner at 5:30 pm ET in Greensboro, NC. The RNC expects 620 attendees and roughly $900,000 will be added to its coffers.)

Rep. Rodney Alexander (R-LA) testifies before the House Ethics Committee in Washington, DC. Tomorrow, House Clerk Jeff Trandahl and House Majority Leader John Boehner are expected to testify.

Be sure to check out the rest of the day's political events below.

2006: landscape:
In his latest must-read column for The Hill, Dick Morris takes to a recent Gallup poll to describe significant disaffection among the Republican base and paints a Republican apocalypse where they lose virtually every competitive race. LINK

"Karl Rove's heroic efforts to preserve its fealty have failed to move Republican base voters. Karl cannot compensate for Bush's failure to project his issues as the midterm disaster for the Republican Party nears," writes Morris.

In yet another must-read, the Washington Post's Jim VandeHei reports that James Carville, Stan Greenberg, the DCCC's Emanuel and others "are now arguing in private deliberations that Democrats have a historic chance to not only win the House but also capture enough seats to build an effective governing majority. They are telling donors that it is worth the risk to shoot for a 40-plus seat gain, which would give Democrats a large enough majority to guarantee that they could move legislation and carry out investigations of the Bush administration." LINK

Note Harold Ickes' somewhat less than enthusiastic outlook and his inability to raise the money he had hoped he would thus far for his 527.

The Washington Times' Joseph Curl contrasts Karl Rove's confident prediction Tuesday that GOPers will hold the House and Senate with Vice President Cheney's more tepid comment on Rush Limbaugh's radio program that Republicans have a "good shot" at holding the House. LINK

In his lunch with reporters and editors of the Washington Times, Rove spoke about skewed press coverage of the election as well as alleged Democratic weakness on "terrorist-surveillance" and "terrorist-interrogation." He also Noted that "Between now and the election, we will spend $100 million in target House and Senate races in the next 21 days."

Rove, who receives 68 polls a week for Senate, governor and House races, said, "My head is about ready to explode."

Note, too, that Rove sees little Foley effect on the outcome of the midterms.

And Note too John Boehner's seemingly wilting poker face on Fox and Friends this morning.

A recent Gallup poll finds 23% approving of the job Congress is doing, with 71% disapproving, per the New York Daily News. The poll says the public's approval of Congress remains at lows not seen since Republicans kicked Democrats out of power in 1994,write Kenneth Bazinet and Michael McAuliff. LINK

The Hill's Kaplan and Blake write that fundraising could easily be the deciding factor in many of the country's closest House and Senate races, but warns that "history shows that money has its limits." LINK

The Way to Win:
In a column headlined "Which Way to Win," the Washington Post's David Ignatius writes about the new book The Way to Win: Taking the White House in 2008 by "two of the media's best political observers," both of whom are familiar to Note readers. LINK

Ignatius looks the concepts of "Clinton Politics" and "Bush Politics" and tries to divine how 2006 will play out.

One of the book's authors, John F. Harris of the Washington Post, is available to you around the world today, in a Live Talk chat sponsored by Newsweek at 1 pm ET.

You can submit your questions to Mr. Harris here. LINK

("What is Jim VandeHei really like?" has been asked and answered.) If you are now ready to buy your own copy of The Way to Win, you can do that here. LINK

Bush Administration agenda:
Under a splashy "Elections May Leave Bush An Early Lame Duck" headline, the Washington Post's Peter Baker and Michael Fletcher report that President Bush "has been meeting privately with Cabinet secretaries in recent weeks to map out an agenda for his final two years in office. The White House says it is not making contingency plans for a Democratic win, but Bush advisers are bracing for what they privately recognize is the increasing likelihood."LINK

"A Democratic victory, analysts in both parties said, could mean that some of Bush's tax cuts would not be renewed, attempts to revive his Social Security investment plan would be doomed and efforts to further broaden national security powers in the face of civil liberties concerns would be thwarted."

"Most worrisome to the White House is the subpoena power that Democrats would gain . . ."

The Washington Times' Stephen Dinan looks at the wrangling between the White House and Congress over the signing of a bill authorizing 700 miles of fence on the U.S.-Mexico border. President Bush has already signed a spending bill with money for some fencing, but has yet to sign the bill actually authorizing the double-wall fence along nearly 700 miles of the border.The questions being worked out are: when will he sign it? And: will it be signed in public or private? LINK

Politics of Iraq:
Columnist Tom Friedman of the New York Times calls the violence in Iraq the biggest "October surprise" of the 2006 election cycle, penning that if violence continues to escalate, then Bush may be left with only his dog Barney's support. LINK

Sen. Hutchison (R-TX), the President's Senator, has described the situation in Iraq as "chaos" and now believes its time to consider splitting the country into semiautonomous regions, Notes the Dallas Morning News. LINK