Leader of the Pack (?)

WASHINGTON, Dec. 10, 2004 — -- 41 Days Until Inauguration Day

The President might be spending today in Washington naming Sam Bodman as his new Energy Secretary-designate and the weekend in town with wounded soldiers and attending holiday events (and getting his belated annual physical); John Kerry might be off to Iowa for his goodwill (!) tour -- but the center of political gravity for the next 48 hours is indicated by the following mythical colloquy:

"Democratic Party state chairs -- you just lost your third national election in a row and are riven by internal hand-wringing over the direction y'all should go -- what are you going to do now?!!??"

Answer: "We're going to Disney World!!!"

Top Democrats convene in Orlando this weekend for their first major post-mortem after the election and the first cattle call of candidates who want to be the next chair of the Democratic National Committee.

Or, depending on your point of view, they will conspire to exorcise Howard Dean from a position of significant influence in the party. (In some darker quarters, Dean's promise not to run for president in 2008 if he becomes chair would be seen as a bassackwards double-deserve threat -- and actually be a reason to anoint him chair!)

(And speaking of anointing, we're eager to see if the suggestion that some would-be candidates will only become actual candidates if anointed to the post actually comes to pass.)

Or they will marvel at the magnitude of Leo Hindery's political operation? (If he ends up as finance chair, maybe it'll start a trend for that race.)

Two things we really want to know:

1. Who are the horses in the race backed by (the) Clinton(s), Kerry, Pelosi, Reid, Gore, Big Labor, and the governors?

2. How the big-feet national political reporters who will be there (and there will be plenty!) will react to these candidates, some of whom they'll be hearing speak for the first time?

Not to mention: who is the first Democrat of repute to be spotted browsing at Orlando Premium Outlets, which is just perhaps the best outlet mall in the entire South, and which is a five-minute ride from the Wyndham? LINK

Based on Simon Rosenberg's breathless, Hawaiian shirt-clad arrival on the plane, we know where we're putting our money.

In this, the first wide open race in three cycles, will the confirmed entrance of a heavyweight -- a Frost or an Ickes or a Kirk -- clear the field?

At the heart of the gathering, the campaigning, and what-went-wrong theorizing is a Notion that is the keyest of the key for a party in transition (which is a separate question from whether there is ever a Democratic Party NOT in transition): who will be able to wrangle a vision (and articulate it), set an agenda, put together a game plan, inspire the troops, put the plans in place, keep all the factions disciplined enough to stick to a handful of key political and policy goals, and far from least, raise the money to put it all together to do one crucial thing: win.

And "win" means '05, '06, '07, and '08. Not just '08.

Today, retiring chair Terry McAuliffe will present a report highlighting Democratic gains and failures; that's followed by a raft of consultants and specialists who will suggest solutions to all that ails.

Highlights, per a senior Democratic official who has seen McAuliffe's presentation: he'll start with the good news: high turnout; surge of first time voters; small presidential margin; the DNC out raised the GOP for the first time in history; a seven-fold increase in donors over 2000; 2.7 million active donors today; and $250 million of the DNC's gross came from small grassroots donors.

He'll then talk about the strategic elements of the 2004 campaign. On message delivery, he'll talk about the DNC spent, what it did on the ground -- and he'll say that Republicans did a much better job of micro-messaging -- sending messages about say, terrorism and guns, to male union members. (But Dan Gurley could have told you that for free!)

McAuliffe will also announce the membership of that committee to study the nomination calendar. The potential here is for Iowa and New Hampshire to be kicked out of their calendar spots . . . or see their influence diluted somehow . . . though we are certain the heavy hitters representing Iowa and New Hampshire on the committee will be fully heard. And no proposal we've heard about commands the support of a majority of the DNC, so don't book those tickets to Phoenix just yet.

On Saturday, a gaggle of candidates will address the Association of State Democratic Party chairs, who with their vice chairs collectively represent about one fourth of the DNC.

The candidates will speak OPEN PRESS, but their Q&A with the members remains CLOSED PRESS. And no leaking allowed -- at least not officially.

Confirmed speakers include Dean, fundraiser/NASCAR driver/entrepreneur Hindery, Rep. Martin Frost, former mayors Ron Kirk and Wellington Webb, former Michigan governor James Blanchard, New Democrat Network president Simon Rosenberg, strategist Donnie Fowler, and former deputy White House Chief of Staff Harold Ickes.

Sen. Byron Dorgan will not be in Orlando. And Harry Reid is in a wait-and-see mode too. He'll have nothing to say for a while on all this, we are told.

We asked each of the candidates to prepare 200 words for us on why they're running -- or are considering a run. The responses we received are at the bottom of The Note in alphabetical order.

Still TBD is whether Fowler or Hindery has the bigger whip operation (or whether Ickes's establishment backers will quietly constitute a force that exceeds what Hindery and Fowler can amass together.).

Be on the lookout for bright red "LEO" buttons . . .

Several factions are vying for a place at the table, including the party's elected governors, who say they are the center of gravity for policy and new ideas; the state party chairs, who say their advice and organizations have long been ignored; the Internet activists who helped Howard Dean and John Kerry pioneer a new way of raising money and support; and the party's establishment, including consultants, old-time party hands, and potential 2008 presidential candidates.

Initially, Kerry convinced virtually all of these interests to support his preferred horse, Iowa Gov. Tom Vilsack. But Vilsack decided he had better things to do then become the most prominent partisan in his party, so he begged off.

Remember: the audience in Orlando represents just a fraction of the actual voters (the full DNC), but by Saturday night, the contours of this just might be more visible than the muddle that exists now.

Back in Washington, today President and First Lady Laura Bush visit Fort Belvoir, VA, stopping in at a USO care package facility before returning to the White House.

Tomorrow the President has his annual physical and meets with wounded soldiers. He attends a Christmas in Washington event Sunday evening at the National Building Museum.

Vice President Cheney has no public events scheduled.

At the National Press Club this morning at 10:00 am ET, a little more talk about the future of the Democratic Party from Al From of the Democratic Leadership Council, Robert Borosage of the Campaign for America's Future, and analyst Stuart Rothenberg.

On Saturday, Sen. John Kerry celebrates his 61st birthday. Mazel tov, Senator!

More on the Bodman nomination: LINK

Bodman served as Deputy Secretary of Commerce and Deputy Secretary of the Treasury in the President's first term.

The Washington Post's VandeHei and Allen write in a spiffy must-read analysis piece, "President Bush is moving quickly to create a new, tighter and more disciplined domestic policy team to pursue transforming the way Americans save for retirement, pay taxes and seek legal damages." LINK

"Convinced his leadership style and policy vision were vindicated by the election results, Bush is aggressively targeting these domestic programs for the second term by essentially replicating the formula he used to reshape foreign policy in the first. This includes creating a small, loyal and trustworthy team to press for broad changes largely dictated by the White House."

The Los Angeles Times' Ed Chen makes some of the same points. LINK

In the grand and glorious world of Big Casino, the President's comments yesterday regarding the payroll tax are (almost) uniformly seen in the papers as absolute, except for his podium-bound spokesguy's refusal to say for sure that that includes raising the level of income subject to the payroll tax.

The Wall Street Journal's Jackie Calmes looks at what the President said. LINK

As does the New York Times' Edmund Andrews. LINK

On Social Security, USA Today's Welch and Nichols write that the President "sidestepped questions about whether he would favor benefit cuts or more government debt. Bush spokesman Scott McClellan also did not rule out raising the amount of personal income subject to payroll taxes." LINK

The Los Angeles Times' Warren Vieth Notes, "Independent analysts said it was unfortunate that the president appeared to be foreclosing one of the few basic choices for ensuring that future revenues were adequate to cover promised benefits to retirees." LINK

The Wall Street Journal's ed board poo-poohs transition costs, calling taxes as a way to cover them foolhardy. LINK

The New York Times' Paul Krugman rips the idea of privatizing Social Security, saying it'll only increase the national debt, and throws a little venom at Treasury Secretary Snow while he's at it. LINK

Like it or not, Krugman is going to be part of this national debate.

And, at some point, personal account supporters are going to have to come to public terms with the goal of lowering the guaranteed minimum benefit for future retirees who opt into the new system -- with the intended/related goal of taking pressure off of the trust fund. And the further related coming to terms with the Notion that someone who invested badly might end up with a lower total benefit (guaranteed and income from investments) than someone who stays in the current system.

But that point is, apparently, not yet.

Jackie Calmes' Washington Wire Notes the Republican worry lines and the lobbying for support for President Bush's Social Security plan. And Note to Mr. Bolton: vroom vroom. LINK

The New York Times' Elisabeth Bumiller looks at the price of access during the Inaugural festivities as fundraising campaigns are going out to donors. LINK

We particularly enjoyed this paragraph: "Even at a time of war when more than 138,000 American troops are serving in Iraq, the organizers say that the inaugural celebration at the end of the January will not be marked by any noticeable restraint and will cost more than any other in history."

And this one: "But as they did last time, Bush fund-raisers have placed their own $250,000 cap on donations to avoid seeming greedy and to prevent any bad publicity over a $1 million corporate contribution."

Note how smooth (like butta!!) Steve Schmidt is, with no rust apparent!!!

On the off chance you were sleeping when this story broke yesterday, the Wall Street Journal's James Bandler takes a look at the question to Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld by the soldier in Kuwait about armored vehicles -- which was prompted by reporter Edward Lee Pitts of the Chattanooga Times Free Press. We expect ongoing reaction today.LINK

More on The Question:LINK; LINK; LINK

And E.J. Dionne thinks in depth about the whole Rumsfeld armor question thing, regardless of how it happened. LINK

The New York Times' Thom Shanker and Eric Schmitt examine the armored vehicle situation in Iraq, based on a report by the House Armed Services Committee Noting that transport vehicles often do not have protection. "The uproar has exposed some of the most crucial challenges facing the Pentagon: how to equip and train troops for a war whose very nature has changed." LINK

The Journal's ed board says it's the military's acquisition process that's the problem, not military planning. LINK

The AP's Will Lester reports that a new AP/Ipsos poll shows confidence in the President up and confidence in Iraq's democratic future is down. LINK

The New York Times' Doug Jehl reports on the fight over a secret and extremely expensive technical intelligence program "believed to be a system of new spy satellites" that prompted a fight gone public with comments Thursday by Sens. Jay Rockefeller and Ron Wyden of the Senate Intelligence Committee, who obliquely referred to a program they said lawmakers on the panel had been trying to block but continues to receive the support of the House, the Bush Administration, and appropriators in Congress. LINK

David Rogers of the Wall Street Journal offers up a must-read profile of House Speaker Dennis Hastert, looking at his handling of the intel bill as a way to understand the fine line Hastert walks between his party, the White House, and accomplishing a legislative agenda on Capitol Hill. LINK

"As speaker, Mr. Hastert appears buffeted between a supremely self-assured White House and an insecure, conservative wing of his Republican caucus which feels it doesn't enjoy the sway it deserves. In this case, Mr. Hastert not only mediated but also asserted himself, forcing the White House to get more involved and also drawing the line on how far he would take the House to appease his right flank on immigration issues."

The Washington Post's Dan Eggen thoroughly reads the intel reform bill in a way that would make Sen. Byrd happy. LINK

The Wall Street Journal's Deborah Solomon takes a look at the potentially tough questions Bernard Kerik may face from Democrats during the Senate confirmation hearings to be secretary of Homeland Security. His business dealings with a stun gun manufacturer (and we can guess who's pushing that angle) could end up among the issues at center stage. LINK

The New York Times' Eric Lipton goes further into Kerik's varied financial success, drawing a map of the questions Kerik's critics will likely ask and the eyebrows they will likely raise over the appearance of conflicts. LINK

The New York Times' David Sanger tallies up the Cabinet changes, with Thursday's nomination of Jim Nicholson to be Secretary of Veterans Affairs. LINKMeet VA nominee Nicholson. LINK and LINK

(. . . and the Des Moines Register's Jane Norman reminds us he's an Iowan LINK)Susan Page writes about diversity in the President's Cabinet. LINK

The New York Times' Randal Archibold profiles Gerald A. Reynolds, the new chairman of the United States Commission on Civil Rights. LINK

Same-sex marriage, eh? LINK and LINK

The Boston Globe's Christopher Rowland reports that Consumer Reports plans to evaluate prescription drugs. LINK

The Washington Post's Robin Givhan writes about the new Annie Leibovitz photos of the Bushes in Vogue. LINK

The Seattle Post-Intelligencer reports that Rossi has a net gain of one vote with just over a quarter of the counties completing their hand recount so far. LINK

Finally, back to Florida . . .

DNC CHAIRS: THE (POTENTIAL) CANDIDATE STATEMENTS

Howard Dean

Our challenge today is not to re-hash what has happened, but to look forward, to make the Democratic Party a 50-state party again, and, most importantly, to win. To win the White House and a majority in Congress, yes. But also to do the real work that will make these victories possible -- to put Democratic ideas and Democratic candidates in every office -- whether it be Secretary of State, supervisor of elections, county commissioner or school board member.

The destination of the Democratic Party means making it a party that can communicate with its supporters and with all Americans. Politics is at its best when we create and inspire a sense of community. The tools that were pioneered in my campaign -- like blogs, and meetups, and most importantly, community building -- are just a start. We must use all of the power and potential of technology as part of an aggressive outreach to meet and include voters, to work with the state parties, and to influence media coverage.

Reform is the hallmark of a strong Democratic Party. Those who stand in the way of reform cannot be the focus of our attention for only four months out of every four years.

Donnie Fowler

In 1992, Bill Clinton offered the country a choice -- change versus more of the same. Today, the Democratic Party faces a similar choice: we can change, or keep losing ground.

Our party must embrace the new politics while perfecting the old. I want to help build a stronger, smarter, and more successful Democratic Party using the best strategies and ideas that have been developed in every corner of our nation. Stay tuned for http://www.ChangeTheParty.com to see specifics on how we will return to a progressive majority.

The day after Election Day, the Democratic Party should have started, no matter the result, a conversation with activists, state and local leaders, and state parties about where we head next. What have they learned? What worked? And what can we do better?

Democrats must remind Americans of our soul. Issues alone are not enough when voters want to know the values in which our issue positions are rooted. We have lost the will to stand up and fight back against a Republican Party willing to say or do anything to gain power.

We have much to build on and much that can change, but most fundamentally, Democrats must remember that voters don't live in Washington. The Party must talk to voters year round where they live, using trusted local opinion leaders.

The DNC must become a 365-day-a-year hub for the Party -- not just a short-term presidential committee -- working with leaders outside of Washington's web of conventional wisdom.

Martin Frost

The Democratic Party is at a crossroads. Our party should not forfeit its basic responsibilities and force those who share our basic party ideals to abandon the party structure altogether and rely on outside special interest groups to fill the Party's responsibility.

For 10 years, the DNC has focused primarily on Presidential contests. As a result, the DNC has not played a comprehensive role in the party building needed by state and local party organizations.

I will focus on difficult but fundamental tasks, rebuilding at the state and local levels everywhere in the country rather than a narrow scope of battleground states that may or may not determine the outcome of a Presidential election.

By focusing on statewide, legislative, local and Congressional races in 2005 and 2006 we will lay the groundwork that will allow us to approach the Presidential race from a position of strength.

As DCCC Chair I picked up 14 seats. As DNC Chair I will take the same focused approach. We will be inclusive, we will target broadly, we will use the newest political technologies and I will be personably accountable to the members of the DNC.

Leo Hindery

As a young man in Washington State, I started doorknocking for Democrats -- and I've continued, in Colorado, California, New Mexico and New York. I've supported and campaigned with Democrats at all levels, all over the country. While running some of the nation's most prominent and successful media companies, I helped Martin Luther King, Jr.'s Birthday become a national holiday -- and stood up strongly and publicly against discrimination and for employee diversity, fair compensation, partner benefits, women's issues, and AIDS prevention. I'm a builder, and an inclusive and effective leader.

The DNC needs to focus on state and local races with the same intensity we bring to presidential races. We need to invest in research, grassroots, and turnout . . . and forge stronger bonds with state chairs, governors, the DSCC and DCCC. Washington should listen to what the states tell us—and stop talking about red or blue. When good Democrats are running for Mayor, state legislatures, Congress, Senate and the White House, the DNC should be there, providing support and leadership. I'm independent of any faction or candidate, and will run the DNC inclusively and decisively. We'll continue our fundraising prowess; our operations capacity will be unparalleled; and our message will be clear to all Americans: the values of the Democratic party are the values -- faith, optimism, fairness -- that benefit us all.

Simon Rosenberg

What inspires me to consider the national chair race are the very same values and beliefs that have inspired our growing and dynamic NDN community for eight years -- our collective desire to see a better America, and a modern 21st century Democratic Party, confident in its beliefs, with a strong understanding of how to meet the rising challenge of today's conservative movement and take the Republican Party.

My love of politics has taken me to political campaigns in more than ten states, including Florida, New Hampshire, Michigan, Ohio, Wisconsin, Iowa, among others.

Since 1996, I have been the Founder and President of the New Democrat Network (NDN). NDN has helped elect hundreds of candidates across the country and raised tens of millions for candidates in critical campaigns. In 2004, NDN launched our Hispanic Project, a $10 million effort to reach out to Hispanic voters in an unprecedented fashion. I know how to run a successful political organization. I know how to reach new voters. I know how to build a modern message machine. And I know how to create a strategy for victory.

If I decide to run and win the Chair of the DNC, I will ensure our party never goes into another election without a strong, modern message and without telling Americans what we believe in. I will reach out to new voters and make the Democratic Party competitive in every region in the country. I will harness the amazing energy and passion of millions of activists, give them a voice in their party, and reinvigorate the progressive cause. I will continue to modernize and rejuvenate the infrastructure of the Democratic Party, at every level, so that we can meet the conservative challenge head on.

Wellington Webb

I believe our party has to be rebuilt from the state level up, with the DNC working with state chairs and not just operating from the top down. I also believe that our next chairperson should come from a "red state" and should not be from inside the Washington, D.C. Beltway.

There needs to be a thoroughly thoughtful coordinated and consistent message developed by the DNC, the Senate Democrats and the House Democrats. The Democratic Party should target Southern and Western states rather than writing off these important voting parts of the country before the election even starts.

In addition, the chair should not now be directly tied to any Democrat who is considering running or who is running for President in 2008. Our present concentration should be on success for Democrats in the 2005 and 2006 elections, as we simultaneously prepare for election of a Democratic President in year 2008.

I would also want to bring the Colorado model, which achieved success for Democrats. Even though our state voted for Bush, the Democrats captured a U.S. Senate seat, a Congressional House seat, and took control of both Houses of the Colorado State.