The Note: The Best Little Political Briefing on Television or the Web

— -- 13 days to the Inauguration

Every day for the rest of January, we will be simultaneously covering politics AND courting a daily lawsuit from a major media entity or personality.

Sure, the Disney lawyers hate when we do this, but we have extraordinarily dreams for The Note's expansion in 2005 and the only way to achieve our goals is via publicity.

And the BEST way to get promotional attention is through free media.

And the best way to get free media is to be sued.

So, today, we will bring you the news cycle's winners and losers, through our Conventional Wisdom Watch. (Call your attorney, Jon Alter.)

Monday, we will have a column about the extraordinary policy innovations taking place in Maine, Georgia, and Kansas, demonstrating that the governors of those states have more wisdom in their pinkies than all 535 members of Congress have in their whole bodies. (See you in court, David Broder.)

Tuesday, you can look forward to 800 piquant words on how George W. Bush is always trying to live up to Daddy's expectations, leading him into foolish international misadventures and a propensity to kowtow to Cheney and Rumsfeld. (Bring it on, MoDo.)

Wednesday, we'll write up some leaked memos we have from Jack Kemp and Jude Wanniski which describe their real doubts about the direction the President is headed on Social Security and tax reform. (And Fitzgerald can't help you on this one, Bob Novak.)

Thursday, of course, we'll have our Political Play of the Week. (Those AOL lawyers are super busy, Bill Schneider.)

And Friday, we'll have our ("quickly, quickly!!!!") predictions and Outrages of the Week. (John McLaughlin and Mark Shields – may we suggest some sort of class action gang up? Or, would it be "group up"?)

So, for today, our Conventional Wisdom Watch:

UP ARROW: Barbara Walters and ABC News, who have announced that President George W. Bush and Laura Bush will speak exclusively next week to Walters in their first joint interview since the November election. This will also be President Bush's first in-depth television interview since winning a second term as president. The far-reaching interview will air on "20/20" on FRIDAY, JANUARY 14 (10:00 - 11:00 p.m. ET) on the ABC Television Network. It doesn't get any more boffo than that at this critical time in the Bush presidency -- during a month of the inauguration, the Iraq elections, the State of the Union, the budget, and so much more.

AP took the public's temperature on the President as he heads into that second term, and found his job approval rating at 49 percent -- and his disapproval rating at 49 percent as well, Will Lester reports. LINK

DOWN ARROW: Commentator Armstrong Williams, whose tale is told in a front-page USA Today exclusive, in which Williams strong support for No Child Left Behind (and the Bush Administration cash he was paid to evince that strong support) are detailed. (See below for more.)

SIDEWAYS ARROW: Likely Deputy Secretary of State nominee Bob Zoellick -- sure he's in line for a big job, and the Los Angeles Times quotes someone calling him "among the most talented foreign policy, national security, economic security practitioners that the U.S. has produced in the last generation," but imagine the indignity of this paragraph, in the same Times story: "During Cabinet meetings, Bush often goes around the table calling on one secretary after another by the snappy nicknames he coins for them. 'When he gets to Zoellick, he just says, '"Hello, Zoellick,"' one source said. 'It was very clear he didn't have the Texas touch.'" LINK

DOWN ARROW: George Pataki -- yesterday, Fred Dicker savaged him and the whole Albany politico-media superstructure slammed his State of the State as lackluster; today, the Wall Street Journal ed board (his constituents!!!) compare him unfavorably to Gov. Schwarzenegger.

DOWN ARROW: Bush's Social Security reform -- with the CW suggesting a tough fight, the Washington Post nabs exclusive details suggesting Hill GOPers think there has been too much talk of benefit cuts this week. And there is disagreement on leg strategy between the House and the Senate. (And/but, even though Max Baucus tells the New York Times to count him out, the Wall Street Journal's Jackie Calmes reports on a bipartisan meeting of Senators in which Social Security compromise was in the air!!!). (More on all this below.)

SIDEWAYS ARROW: Brent Scowcroft pops off again about Iraq (being all gloomy and doomy about civil war and the American commitment), and yet 41's umbrella protects him again and again.

Today . . .

The Labor Department reported this morning that the economy added 157,000 jobs in December, and the unemployment rate remains at 5.4 percent. All told, reports ABC News' Daniel Arnall the economy added nearly 2.1 million jobs last year -- the best for growth since 1999. But President Bush's first term still shows a net job loss of 210,000.

Today, President Bush travels to Clinton Township, MI, to talk about the Administration's plans to limit liability in asbestos cases.

Today at 9:20 am ET, President Bush holds a photo op with former Sens. Connie Mack (R-FL) and John Breaux (D-LA), the chairman and vice chairman of his new task force on overhauling the tax code.

The Washington Post's Jonathan Weisman has details on the panel. LINK

At 12:15 pm ET, the President delivers remarks in Clinton Township, MI, outside Detroit, on limiting liability in asbestos litigation at Macomb Community College -- the latest event on his tort reform tour.

At 3:00 pm ET, Education Secretary Rod Paige holds a news conference to announce a National Education Technology Plan. We're eager to see if the Armstrong Williams story will rear its head there.

Rep. Robert Matsui lies in state at the California State Capitol Building in Sacramento, and he will be buried on Saturday after memorial and funeral services.

The House is not in session.

Tomorrow begins the regional meetings during which the candidates for DNC chair make their case to party members around the country. The Southern Regional Caucus of the Democratic National Committee will host a candidate forum for the DNC chair would-bes at the Sheraton Gateway in Atlanta, starting at noon and ending at around 2:00 pm ET.

All the major candidates will be there: Roemer, Dean, Frost, Fowler, Rosenberg, Malcolm, etc. The formats is an audience-led questions and answer session.

Speaking of, what the heck is David Leland, the former chair of the Ohio Democratic Party, doing on the speaker's list?

And what possible reason would you have not to watch "This Week with George Stephanopoulos" this weekend as he puts the tough questions to former Rep. Tim Roemer in an exclusive interview?

Social Security:
After yesterday's meeting between the President and congressional leaders on Social Security, some things became clear: there's a House/Senate split emerging on the idea of benefit cuts, and President Bush has his work cut out for him.

John Harwood in the Wall Street Journal writes that President Bush is "expected to assure retirees at a White House event [next week] that they won't lose benefits, and promote sums young workers could amass from private accounts. Mr. Bush also plans a major speech on the issue this month, probably before the State of the Union, then travel to pressure reluctant lawmakers."

But the executive branch seems to be taking no chances with the President's signature domestic policy priority.

As we Noted above, the Wall Street Journal's Jackie Calmes writes that "[w]ith White House encouragement, a small group of senators have begun meeting to seek agreement on a bipartisan blueprint for shoring up Social Security, preferably before President Bush outlines his plan and partisan lines harden in Congress."

It's a "long shot," he writes, but "Congressional Republican leaders have told Mr. Bush that his initiative will fail without support from both parties. But with the president insisting he won't raise payroll taxes or support a plan that doesn't create private retirement accounts, many Democrats are poised to oppose him.

If the Senators agree to cooperate, Bush might delay introducing his own plan, she reports.

"Yet hours after Mr. Graham's meeting, Republican congressional leaders again told Mr. Bush, in a White House meeting he had called on Social Security, that he must take the lead in proposing an overhaul plan -- and then publicly selling it -- given the huge political risks for Republicans facing re-election next year."

All the talk over benefit cuts cost the President at least one potential Democratic ally. Max Baucus will not be the "linchpin," he said, to a plan the President proposes. LINK

But will be and others (like Democrats Blanche Lincoln and Joe Lieberman) be willing to support a plan written by the Senate? Alternatively, would the White House support a bipartisan plan that doesn't end wage indexing or proposes very small, phased-in private accounts?

In the same article, Dick Stevenson has details of the Republican Bush push for bipartisan legislation but also of the difference between Republicans who want a detailed proposal (mostly in the House) and Republicans who want a flexible proposal (mostly in the Senate.)

The Washington Post's VandeHei and Weisman flesh out those details and report that "Republicans say the fledgling debate has not started on the GOP's strongest ground. Instead of arguing whether younger workers should be allowed to invest their taxes in stocks and bonds, Washington is focusing on the size of the benefit cuts the White House is contemplating, congressional Republicans say." LINK

Several "we ain't on the best track" quotes follow.

And the Wehner memo is seen here as a gift to Democrats and critics of privatization.

John Harwood's Washington Wire reports that "In a strategy huddle this week, Democratic senators resolve to slam emerging White House plans without offering an alternative for Republicans to target."

The Washington Post's E.J. Dionne looks at how Dems are trying to figure out how to position themselves and whether or not to work with President Bush on his plan. The key for them, Dionne Notes, is expanding the conversation to talk health care and find a way to talk privatization that they can live with. LINK

Dionne gives huge play to a plan by new DCCC chairman Rep. Rahm Emanuel and Gene Sperling to finance private retirement accounts for workers without pensions separately from Social Security by stopping the total repeal of inheritance tax and using that money for the accounts.

"Such proposals have potential appeal across philosophical lines. Centrist Democrats are keen to increase the personal savings rate, particularly of lower-income workers. Liberal Democrats are angry at the skew of Bush's tax policies toward the very wealthy, represented most dramatically by the obliteration of estate taxation."

"The Bush administration insists that it enters the Social Security battle with an electoral 'mandate.' But putting aside the relative narrowness of Bush's victory, Democrats insist that he has no mandate for cuts in Social Security benefits because he hid that bad news behind gauzy promises of 'an ownership society.' And Bush squandered much of the support he might have won among moderate Democrats by engaging in what many of them saw as unrelenting partisanship, beginning with the 2002 election campaign."

USA Today's Judy Keen and William Welch paint a picture of a tricky row to hoe for the President in selling not only congressional Republicans on his Social Security plan, but also getting some Democratic support on board, not to mention outside groups. LINK

No Child Left Behind:
USA Today's Greg Toppo turns in an utterly astonishing story about commentator Armstrong Williams pocketing $240,000 from the Administration to promote the No Child Left Behind law on his TV show, and to try to recruit other black journalists to do so as well. LINK

"The campaign, part of an effort to promote No Child Left Behind (NCLB), required commentator Armstrong Williams 'to regularly comment on NCLB during the course of his broadcasts,' and to interview Education Secretary Rod Paige for TV and radio spots that aired during the show in 2004."

"Williams said Thursday he understands that critics could find the arrangement unethical, but 'I wanted to do it because it's something I believe in.'"

"The contract, detailed in documents obtained by USA Today through a Freedom of Information Act request, also shows that the Education Department, through the Ketchum public relations firm, arranged with Williams to use contacts with America's Black Forum, a group of black broadcast journalists, 'to encourage the producers to periodically address' NCLB. He persuaded radio and TV personality Steve Harvey to invite Paige onto his show twice. Harvey's manager, Rushion McDonald, confirmed the appearances."

"Williams said he does not recall disclosing the contract to audiences on the air but told colleagues about it when urging them to promote NCLB."

We'd say more, but we're having a hard time picking our jaws up off of the floor.

You can call him "Al":
The Washington Post's Dan Eggen and R. Jeffrey Smith look at Judge Gonzales on the hot seat yesterday. If anyone was looking for a breakthrough on the August 2002 memo narrowly defining torture, however, they didn't get it. LINK

The Los Angeles Times' Peter Wallsten Notes that Gonzales is the first Administration official to admit the White House wanted to rewrite international treaties. LINK

The New York Times wrap: LINK

The Los Angeles Times: LINK

The Boston Globe: LINK

The New York Times' Sheryl Gay Stolberg Noted the huge smile on Arlen Specter's face as he wielded his gavel with relish. LINK

The Washington Post's editorial board says Gonzales "appeared willfully obtuse about the consequences of his most important judgments as White House counsel." LINK

Electoral votes:
Just asking . . . is George W. Bush the Empress Dowager in this year's Boxer's Rebellion?

Clips on yesterday's pageantry: LINK; LINK; LINK; LINK

The New York Post gets the state's two Senators to publicly disagree! LINK

The New York Times' editorial board calls for election reform: LINK

Bush Cabinet:
The Washington Post's Michael Dobbs reports that Margaret Spellings "appeared headed for swift and painless Senate confirmation" for Secretary of Education, and pledged changes to help fix the No Child Left Behind law. LINK

The Washington Post's Robin Wright follows up yesterday's Wall Street Journal report about U.S. Trade Rep Robert Zoellick becoming would-be Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice's deputy. LINK

Congress:
The verdict is still out on a new House ethics chairman, the Washington Post's Mike Allen and Dan Morgan report. And Rep. Steve Buyer (R-IN) is replacing Rep. Chris Smith (R-NJ) as Veterans Affairs chairman. LINK

The Washington Post's Mark Leibovich offers up a profile of Rep. Joel Hefley (R-CO), whose position as the current chair may end in the next few days. Be sure to read all the way to the end for the fun insight on the Hefley-DeLay dynamics. LINK

Roll Call's Ben Pershing looks at the committee shuffle.

Iraq:
"Brent Scowcroft, national security adviser for President George H.W. Bush and a leading figure in the U.S. foreign policy establishment, said yesterday that he has grown pessimistic about prospects for stability and democracy in Iraq, a view increasingly expressed by other foreign policy figures in both parties," report the Washington Post's Dana Priest and Robin Wright. LINK

The military:
The New York Times on what is sure to be known as the "Luck Report" and the indications that the assignment of Gen. Luck reveals a Pentagon with significant questions about the state of its forces. LINK

Intel:
More CIA fallout, but can the White House stomach more blame for Tenet and Pavitt? LINK

Leon Fuerth makes a guest appearance on the New York Times op-ed page, urging the revival of a global information network to research national disasters and warn about their imminence. LINK

Washington governor's race:
We think we can predict Washington state Republicans' storyline today.

The Seattle Post-Intelligencer's Phuong Cat Le and Michelle Nicolosi report that a review by their paper shows at least eight people who died before the election are credited with voting in King County. County elections supervisor Bill Huennekens said the cases are being investigated, but are not an indication of fraud. LINK

Washington Secretary of State Sam Reed proposed a set of election reforms on Thursday aimed at avoiding election chaos, including moving the September primary to the third Tuesday in June, requiring election workers to send written notices to voters whose ballot signatures are missing or questionable, and requiring absentee ballots to be postmarked by the Friday before the election or received before polls close on election day. Reed also said he wants to replicate the Oregon law that requires people soliciting signatures for ballot initiatives to be paid by the hour, not by the signature. Meanwhile, King County elections director Dean Logan estimated that around 300 provisional ballots were wrongly counted at polling places. LINK

The AP's Rebecca Cook reports that two people have filed challenges to the gubernatorial election with the Washington State Supreme Court. "Both seem to be the work of private citizens and neither bear obvious fingerprints of the state Republican Party," Cook writes. Could a challenge from the party proper be far off? LINK

2006:
Says John Harwood in Washington Wire: "Democrats' Senate campaign committee for 2006 focuses on seats of Pennsylvania's Santorum, a conservative member of the Republican leadership, and Rhode Island's Chafee, a liberal who has resisted party-switch entreaties. But analyst Charlie Cook's early rating shows only three-Republican held seats at high risk, compared with six Democratic seats."

Roll Call's Chris Cillizza reported yesterday afternoon that the DSCC is entering 2005 debt-free, having erased nearly $4 million in debt accumulated during the 2004 election cycle.

2006/2008:
Here's the final paragraph of the Wall Street Journal's editorial comparing the governors of California and New York:

"Come to think of it, Mr. Schwarzenegger sounded a lot like George Pataki circa 1994, the year he first won the Governorship. Back then Mr. Pataki was the one pushing for fiscal constraint and vowing to fight the special interests. That Governor Pataki has been pretty much AWOL since the end of his first term. Listening to him this week you wouldn't know that the state's fiscal problems today are on balance worse than when he took over 10 years ago. If Mr. Pataki wants to rediscover his political convictions, or at least an agenda, he might give Arnold a call."

Politics:
Ed Reilly, the founder of Westhill Partners, today will announce that two Democratic strategist superstars, Jim Jordan and Erik Smith, will join the firm to head up its Washington-based office and set up a full service political and corporate practice. Reilly, known as one of the best pollsters in the business (and one day, his semi-secret role in John Kerry's presidential campaign will come to light), know has two of the smartest Democrats alive working for him. Talk about corporate consolidation. LINK

Bush Administration strategy/personality:
The Washington Post's Ann Gerhart offers a brilliant straight-faced welcome to the utterly adorable Miss Beazley. LINK