The Note: Seasons in the Sun

— -- WASHINGTON, Feb. 10 --

NEWS SUMMARY
Dearest one,

I am the above named person from Netherlands. I am married to Dr.Franklyn Whitley who worked with Canada Embassy in Nigeria for nine years before he died in the year 2000.We were married for eleven years without a child. He died after a brief illness that lasted for only four days.

When my late husband was alive he deposited the sum of Ten Million Five Hundred Thousand U.S.Dollars (US$10.5m) with OVERSEA SECURITY FINANCY COMPANY IN LONDON Presently, this money is still with the above mentioned finance company and the management just wrote me as the beneficiary to come forward to receive the money or rather issue a letter of authorisation to somebody to receive it on my behalf if I can not come over.Again, I'm with my laptop in a hospital where I have been undergoing treatment for cancer of the lungs. I have since lost my ability to talk and my doctors have told me that I have only a few months to live.

Oops. Sorry. Sometimes our cutting and pasting skills aren't that good.

And sometimes, when we give an ambitious Googling monkey a shot at writing The Note lead, he makes a mockery of the process.

In any event, our real lead is simple: within each pair, which matters more?

And we aren't being rhetorical; there ARE rights answers for each one:

Yesterday's Karl Rove's Time-Warner appearance before a covey of Chatterers or his Hannity appearance?

Howard Dean's eight (!) Friday speeches and his one Saturday speech, or his Saturday press conference?

The North Korea nuke saber rattling or the new royal wedding?

Today's Terry McAuliffe's staff photo ops or the royal photo op?

The Medicare contretemps or the inner workings of Bill Thomas' mind?

For more on all these choices (OK: on most of them . . . ) see below.

As of this writing, today's news will likely be dominated by North Korea's public statement that it has nuclear weapons LINK and that it won't rejoin the six-party talks; and on the cable nets, by the announcement from Britain that Prince Charles and Camilla Parker Bowles are to sanctify their long relationship with marriage.

As to the first, ABC News' Jonathan Karl, who is traveling with Secretary of State Rice in Luxembourg, reports that Rice said the North Korea statement is unfortunate, especially for the people of North Korea because it will further lead to their isolation. And she urged them to get back to the six party talks and take the option of de-nuclearizing.

As to the second, you can follow it all day on cable and Drudge.

President Bush is on the road again, traveling to Raleigh-Durham for a town hall meeting on Social Security at 11:10 am ET, then to Blue Bell, PA (hometown of ABC News's Karen Travers!) for a conversation on Social Security at 4:35 pm ET, then back to the White House. First Lady Laura Bush speaks in Detroit, MI at 11:00 am ET.

Today, the Democratic National Committee kicks off its annual winter meeting, culminating with Dean's taking over the party on Saturday.

Tonight, John Kerry and Bill Clinton will fete Terry McAuliffe at the National Building Museum at 8:00 pm ET. We expect both principles -- all three of them, actually -- to speak. Joe Klein and other keen observers will remember what happened last time both Kerry and Clinton spoke at a Democratic event in this very building.

Look for an effusive testimonial on video from Sen. Clinton (D-Chappaqua) -- per one wowed onlooker -- and some additional only-on-video toasts-not-roasts from a mixture of Democratic politicos, medios, and Republicos.

Somewhat overlooked by some members of the political class are the expected passage in the House of two important initiatives for conservatives.

The Senate appears close to passing the first major tort reform bill in recent years. It would, of course, make it much harder to try class action lawsuits in state courts.

And ABC News' Linda Douglass reported yesterday that the White House had signed on to much of the language in Rep. James Sensenbrenner's immigration bill that would keep immigrants from using state driver's licenses as their official government IDs. The White House has some quibbles, and we're certain the Senate will not accept the legislation as is, although the House has promised to attach its version to the emergency war funding legislation. LINK

Big Casino budget politics: Medicare:
Second day coverage prescription drug benefit cost adjustment is mostly the same; "angry" Democrats; angry conservative Republicans; wary moderate/liberal Republicans; an on-message White House; confusion about what comes next; calls for legislation to keep the cost at $400 billion.

The New York Times' Robert Pear: LINK

The Washington Post's Chuck Babington and Ceci Connolly: LINK

The Boston Globe's Rick Klein LINK

More from the Los Angeles Times. LINK

Enough with the outrage, the Washington Post's editorial board contends -- the real issue is the consistency of Bush Administration cost estimates for all sorts of programs. LINK

Big Casino budget politics: budget politics:
The Los Angeles Times' Warren Vieth and Joel Havemann take a hard look at the President's budget, and write that his "lean" proposal will expand rapidly because of the big-ticket initiatives he has approved. LINK

The Wall Street Journal's editorial board says kill, kill, kill, to Amtrak. If the reduced funding means "Julie" dies, we are all for that.

Social Security:
Another day of less-than-stellar free media for the President's push to personalize the program.

The Washington Post's Rich Morin and Dale Russakoff, writing up the results of two interesting surveys by the Washington Post, the Kaiser Family Foundation, and Harvard University, report that 70 percent of Americans believe that Social Security will go bankrupt, but not for at least 20 years, and many say they're not willing to either pay more payroll taxes or cut benefits to fix the problem. LINK

"While 56 percent said they support a plan for individual investment accounts, more than half of those said they would be less likely to do so after hearing the [cost] estimate. More than four in 10 supporters wavered when they heard that personal accounts would not, by themselves, reduce the financial problems facing Social Security."

Bill Welch of USA Today informally focused grouped seniors in Central Florida, and the White House will want to read the story closely. Many/most are skeptical of the President's plan, even though it wouldn't affect their benefit levels. LINK

Separately Welch writes that the AARP is directing its attention to young people, and trying to get them on board with its opposition to the Administration's Social Security plan. LINK

Writes Bob Novak today must-readerishly: "Bill Thomas of California, chairman of the House Ways and Means Committee, is the ultimate legislative poker player who keeps his hand shielded even from partners. But he showed a few cards during the recent Republican retreat at the Greenbrier resort in White Sulphur Springs, W.Va. His fellow Republican congressmen were astounded. The chairman's deal bore little resemblance to President Bush's plan for Social Security and tax reform. Thomas indicated he would marry Social Security with total repeal of the corporate income tax, which would be replaced by a value-added tax. As for simplification of individual taxes, he indicated that is off the board, contradicting desires of many GOP congressmen. As he enters his fifth year as chairman, has Thomas overstepped himself?" LINK

Rep. Clay Shaw (R-Fla) will introduce his own plan today that's by some lights tamer than what President Bush appears to want to propose. LINK

USA Today's Mark Memmott looks at how the RNC is firing back at ads attacking the President's plan on Social Security. LINK

Bush agenda:
The Washington Post's John Harris and Jim VandeHei report a victory for the Bush Administration yesterday with Senate votes on the Class Action Fairness Act that "virtually guarantee" that the new rules, which would put class action lawsuits in federal rather than state courts, will come to pass. LINK

The Times beats us over the head with the news that lobbyist/intellectual Walter Dellinger helped to write the class action bill. LINK

And President Bush is laying on the pressure, report the Los Angeles Times' Maura Reynolds and Sara Clarke. LINK

The Washington Post's Mike Allen outlines the details of the "Real I.D. Act" -- an immigration bill that would give the federal government power to build roads and barriers along the border with Mexico, as well as give states tougher standards for giving driver's licenses, give judges a wider berth to deport suspected terrorists and make political asylum more difficult to obtain. LINK

The Los Angeles Times' Mary Curtius looks at the opposition to the measure and explains how it would affect California. LINK

The Washington Post's editorial board is no fan of the bill. LINK

The Washington Post's Glenn Kessler reports that the Bush Administration has nearly tripled the amount of money requested for tsunami relief, asking for $950 million. LINK

Dean:
We arrived at the Capitol City Brewery last night expecting enthusiastic young men and women of a Democratic/Dean persuasion, and we were not disappointed. 2000 of them turn out and, in fact, they spilled out on the sidewalk to greet the former Vermont governor.

A 10-minute campaign-style speech was laced with Dean's trademark epanalepsis: "I believe . . . I believe . . . I believe . . . . . . What you need to do . . . What you need to do . . . "

He added an obligatory sentence promising to work with Sen. Reid and Rep. Pelosi, and he mentioned Enron about a half dozen times. He promised to help Democrats defeat Maryland Gov. Bob Ehrlich in 2006 (big cheers) and promised to "terminate the Terminator" in California (groans, then cheers). The crowd loved it. It reminded several of them of a year and a half ago, and it left a few folks in tears.

Dean himself was surrounded by a cadre of aides, current and former. They included his new close counsel, Tom Ochs, Maura Keefe, a senior adviser to Gov. Dean's presidential campaign, Chris Canning, one of Dean's original presidential staffers who now works in Washington, Sarah Buxton, Dean's long-time personal aide, and a dozen others.

AP's Will Lester was there too: LINK

The roster of those who will help the party to transition to Dean keeps growing. Tina Flournoy, currently with the American Federation of Teachers and a top advisor to Al Gore and Bill Clinton, will play a key role, according to two Democrats.

Writes self-reflective Democrat Ted Van Dyk in the Wall Street Journal: "With the advent of the Dean chairmanship, the Body Snatchers' takeover will be complete and the party of ideas will have been fully transformed to one of reflexive and strident opposition."

As TVD WSJ op-eds go, this one isn't so negative about the party!!!

On the Washington Post's op-ed page, former Rep./DNC chair candidate Tim Roemer argues for a bigger tent on issues -- particularly abortion -- within the Democratic Party. LINK

"During the past four years Karl Rove and the Republicans have effectively manipulated the political dialogue and votes in Congress to label Democrats as supporters of 'partial birth' abortion and 'abortion on demand.' They have painted all Democrats with the same broad brush as being 'pro-abortion,' rather than 'pro-choice.' This is hurting us with churchgoing African American, Latino, Catholic, rural and suburban voters."

". . . We need to be inclusive and respect different views on abortion -- and other issues -- within our party. Democrats will not make up the difference of seven seats in the Senate or 17 in the House if we apply litmus tests to Democrats on individual issues."

Last night, in his mandatory exit interview with NY1's Dominic Carter, McAuliffe played pundit and said that Bill Clinton doesn't want to head the United Nations and Rudy Giuliani's pro-choice views would be a problem. (See below.)

2005:
Queens Republicans will support Thomas V. Ognibene, not Mayor Bloomberg, in the mayoral primary. LINK

2006
The first major development of the 2006 Senate cycle was broken by the ABC News affiliate in the Twin Cities, so go team!

Democrats who have spoken to members of Sen. Mark Dayton's senior staff say that the rigors of a campaign, his hatred of fundraising, the perception that he was vulnerable, and his desire to go back to Minnesota all factored in on his decision to not run again. He apparently saw some very bad polling recently . . . and his family has had just about enough of Washington, according to these Democrats.

Democrats AND Republicans who watch the Senate races say this gives Dems a better chance to hold the seat because Dayton was considered the weakest/most vulnerable Democrat out there. The Dems say they have a deep bench. Including:

Alan Page, Mike Ciresi, Mike Hatch, Bud Philbrook, Betty McCollum, Judy Dutcher, Garrison Keillor, Al Franken, Bill Luther.

We think Hatch will run against Gov. Pawlenty instead; some national Democrats don't want Luther to run because they think he's easily beatable. Franken will announce his plans to his Air America radio audience today during his show, airing from the Center for American Progress while he's (coincidentally) in Washington, DC this week.

On the Republican side, Rep. Mark Kennedy is seen as the strongest candidate, followed by Former Sen. Rod Grams and Rep. Gil Gutretcht.

Dane Smith, Eric Black, and Patricia Lopez of the Minneapolis Star Tribune do the definitive roundup of the ripples Dayton's decision has sent through Minnesota politics, complete with a very good list of possible candidates, and Noting that "Republicans have been salivating about taking on Dayton." LINK

Roll Call's Nicole Duran takes a very good look at what Dayton's exit means to the 2006 field, and calls Rep. Betty McCollum the only House member who observers think could get into the game, while running down the potential lists on both sides.

State Rep. Tom Rukavina said he's mulling a run partly because of his close friendship with Sen. Paul Wellstone, the Duluth News Tribune reports. LINK

The Hill's Geoff Earle adds outgoing DFL chairman Mike Erlandson to the list of possibles. LINK

Hulse: LINK

Roll Call's Lauren Whittington scopes out the NRCC fundraiser in Los Angeles later this month, suggesting that Republicans are happy to enjoy Hollywood largess -- they just don't share their values.

O'Malley/Ehrlich day two: LINK and LINK and LINK and LINK

2008:
The confetti had barely settled after the inauguration of George W. Bush for the hundreds of the nation's top conservative activists gathered in Orlando during the last week in January for a meeting of the Council on National Policy (CNP).

Members of the CNP, an influential and private group that works behind the scenes to influence Republican politics, were already pondering the election in 2008.

Several noted that for the first time in many presidential cycles, prominent social conservatives have yet to identify a potential favorite.

In informal conversations, as described by two of the participants, more than a dozen names were thrown around -- most notably that of popular conservative Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty. Other potential candidates such as Sen. Bill Frist and Florida Gov. Jeb Bush were discussed as well, though Bush has said he will not run in 2008.

The participants, including respected commentator Paul Weyrich and the Eagle Forum's Phyllis Schlafly, agreed that prominent conservatives should coordinate efforts to cultivate the candidate who best represents "values voters," and Pawlenty fits that description.

"He seems to be in line with the views of what we now call the 'values voters,' which are very important to the future of the Republicans," said Weyrich, who says he remains undecided about who he'll support in 2008.

"There aren't a whole lot of candidates in that position. [Former New York Mayor Rudolph] Giuliani, he's not satisfactory. {New York Gov. George] Pataki is not satisfactory, you go down the list."

Read on, tonto: LINK

"Setting up a political battle over stem cell research, Gov. Mitt Romney of Massachusetts said this week that he would propose legislation to outlaw a type of embryonic stem cell research that is being planned by laboratories at Harvard University and other institutions in the state," the New York Times' Pam Belluck reports. LINK

As one very smart commentator put it to us recently, when will the Boston media figure out that Romney really might not run for re-election? LINK

Cindy Adams marvels that Gov. Schwarzenegger revels in his Austrian heritage. LINK

George Will on Gov. S's resolution. LINK

Rudy in SC; Sez Prez Bid Talk "Too Early": LINK

Lee Bandy gets Katon Dawson to say that Giuliani's pro-choice creds would, uhm, not help him in the state. LINK

Sen. Joe Biden tells readers of the Wall Street Journal what foreign leaders have told him about Iraq and calls on President Bush to establish a contact group of all the major players.

Good Quinnipiac news for Sen. Clinton, but 48 percent of New Yorkers do not want her to run for President. LINK

Also: New Yorkers favor legal abortion -- with restrictions. LINK

David Yepsen talked to Sen. Tom Harkin and Gov. Tom Vilsack about what they think Democrats need to do to win again. First up: reality check on values and ideas. LINK

The Boston Globe's Rick Klein reports that Sen. Kerry gave $1 million in campaign money to the DNC's grassroots organizing campaign, and is encouraging his supporters to give to the party. LINK

Klein outs Jenny Backus as a Kerry political consultant.

Roll Call's Chris Cillizza looks at Sen. Kerry's new Keeping America's Promise PAC -- along with John Giesser's new staff, which includes deputy executive director Tracey Lewis, national finance director Jackson "Jay" Dunn, political director Amy Dacey, Backus, and press secretary Katharine Lister.

If the bill passed by the state Senate on Wednesday goes through, Arkansas will hold its presidential primary on the first Tuesday in February, the Arkansas News Bureau reports. LINK

Glenn Reynolds in the Wall Street Journal has a great op-ed on Tennessee Gov. Phil Bredesen.

The Granite State:
In addition to welcoming Gov. Lynch to the jungle with his new education funding plan and all of the complications and fights that it will involve, the Union Leader's John DiStaso writes that '08 hopefuls are laying down roots in the Granite State. For one, Concord consultant Mike Dennehy has spent time with Sen. John McCain as recently as yesterday -- but at this point on a "just in case" basis. On the Democratic side, state Democratic Party vice chair Raymond Buckley was in Washington talking to Sen. Bayh and Steve Bouchard, the new executive director of the Senator's PAC. LINK

Correction: Yesterday, in talking about the governor of New Hampshire's school funding plan, we mistakenly referred to him as James, when we really meant Gov. John Lynch. We regret the error.

Media: The Gang of 500 pulse:
Kind of like those kids throughout America searching for that beloved and bespectacled character with the red and white striped hat, we here at The Note are today playing, "Where's Walter?"

Former USA Today columnist (and current Fellow at the Shorenstein Center on the Press, Politics and Public Policy at Harvard University) Walter Shapiro rears his proverbial head in the current issue of The Atlantic (avec a nod to Thomas Frank), wittily skewering the "well-heeled" residents of the Democratic bastion that is Central Park West and wondering why they aren't more apt to be Bush supporters. LINK

" . . . the Bush tax cuts should have eased the burdens on these hard-pressed New Yorkers as they valiantly juggle co-op board assessments, Dalton tuitions, Telluride ski vacations, and East Hampton property taxes. Surely the well-heeled voters in these prestigious climes understand that they will benefit from the president's plan to transform Social Security into an income transfer program for Wall Street. (And Iraq? Parents along CPW have more reason to worry about wangling a table at Per Se, or getting on the right benefit committee, than about whether their son's National Guard unit will be dispatched overseas.)"

We agree that wangling a table at Per Se ain't easy, but Dalton is SO '90s, Walter -- it is all about St. Ann's now. LINK

Hard pass, soft pass:
We've certainly read our share of GannonGate coverage; Kossacks here LINK can fill you in.

We will not traffic in the details of Mr. Gannon's personal life, other than to say that some of activities allegedly associated with him do not comport with values expressed by President Bush.

Then again, as a very smart observer points out: since when -- in this era when Republicans allegedly are the party favoring more personal intrusion -- do Democrats begin to investigate the private lives of people expressing their right to speak? Some of those liberal bloggers are slowly tipping into demonization… whither classical liberalism?

A closer look at how the White House issues daily passes is probably something the U.S. Secret Service will engage in, and that's probably warranted in this case. And it certainly doesn't make the White House look good. And it does strike us odd that young Mr. Gannon, barely into his first White House coverage assignment for Talon, somehow obtained the sources to learn about Valerie Plame; it has been reported that Mr. Gannon was called before the federal grand jury investigating the White House leak.

Do expect Democrats to flood their allies with entreaties to talk about this story and peruse it further. LINK

The Washington Post's Howard Kurtz looks at the whole thing. LINK

Politics:
Weekly Standard reporters have been following the ongoing controversy over the presidential vote in Wisconsin: "For now, at least, the official tabulations still show John Kerry having edged out President Bush in Wisconsin last November -- by a squeaker-small 11,384-vote statewide margin. But local, state, and federal law enforcement officials last week made two significant announcements indicating that Republican complaints about the fairness of that count are being taken seriously."

"The total number of suspicious Milwaukee votes has been growing larger with every passing week, and seems likely, sooner rather than later, to exceed John Kerry's statewide margin of victory. Will that margin survive a federal grand jury investigation?"

Send us your thoughts on this: politicalunit@abcnews.com

Read the whole thing online when it's posted. And see this article for the latest: LINK

What's become of the Clinton library? LINK

Sen. Daschle, headed to a lobby firm? LINK

Secretaries Hood (from Florida) and Blackwell (from Ohio) did not attend yesterday's hearing on election reform, as requested by House Administration Committee chairman Bob Ney. LINK

The Washington Post's never-grumpy Tom Edsall reports that the leadership of the Federal Election Commission proposed boosting the spending limit during the presidential nominating process to $250 million in an attempt to bring back public financing of campaigns. They also suggested raising the amount of a contribution eligible for a full match, raising the bar for candidates to qualify for matching funds, giving money to candidates earlier, and giving general election money to both party nominees on the same day. LINK