The Note: News Headlines Every 30 Seconds

— -- WASHINGTON, March 15 --

NEWS SUMMARY
Social Security update:

Upbeat for President Bush -- the Wall Street Journal ed board dips its toe into the compromise pool, and Sen. Sununu is possessed of infectious optimism.

Downbeat for President Bush -- Members of Congress reading the Washington Post's front page (that ABC/WP poll) and business section (a COMPASS withdrawal).

Karen Hughes update:

Upbeat for Bush -- a boffo launch event.

Downbeat for Bush -- this is one hard job, and it's a long walk from Foggy Bottom to the White House mess.

Budget update:

Upbeat for Bush -- Republicans are acting (serious) about spending restraint.

Downbeat for Bush -- Republicans are acting serious about deficit reduction. (As President's Clinton and Bush 43 would say: think about it.)

Leader DeLay update:

Upbeat for DeLay -- House Republicans love you, man, and they see this as a witchhunt -- the wagons are fully circled.

Downbeat for DeLay -- (stand back/stand by for the mixed metaphor) you need a page turn to stop the drip-drip-drip -- and figure out whose blind quotes those are.

More on all that below.

President Bush did a regional reporters roundtable at the White House this morning -- quotes and stuff to come.

The POTUS meets with King Abdullah of Jordan in the Oval Office at 11:25 am ET. He delivers a speech to the National Republican Campaign Committee dinner at the Washington Hilton at 7:05 pm ET.

See Peter Jennings' interview with the King (neither particularly little nor consistently plucky) on "World News Tonight with Peter Jennings" tonight.

And see the Democrats House campaign committee (known among the cognoscenti as "the D-trip") raise its own money in DC tonight -- less money than the NRCC and in closer quarters at Charlie Palmer's.

Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice is traveling in Asia.

At 9:00 am ET, Treasury Secretary John Snow delivers a speech at the America's Community Bankers' Conference in Washington, DC. At 10:45 am ET, he talks at the Treasury Department's Debt and Development Forum.

Labor Secretary Elaine Chao and Veterans Affairs Secretary Jim Nicholson are both on Capitol Hill today, talking about their FY2006 budgets.

At 8:30 am ET, the U.S. Chamber of Commerce and Roll Call hosted a discussion on overhauling Social Security. Speakers include: Social Security Administration commissioner Jo Anne Barnhart; Congressional Budget Office director Douglas Holtz-Eakin; and Reps. Sander Levin (D-MI) and Jim McCrery (R-LA).

Speaking of, at 10:00 am ET, Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan testifies before the Senate Special Committee on Aging.

Yes, we linked to the Washington Post's analysis of the latest ABC News/Washington Post poll yesterday, but today we've got ABC News Polling Director Gary Langer's analysis of just how tough a sell the President is facing with his push to overhaul Social Security -- "no movement in Bush's direction. Americans oppose his plans by 55 percent to 37 percent, and the intensity of sentiment is against him: Those who are 'strongly' opposed outnumber strong supporters by a 2-1 margin," Langer Notes. LINK

Elsewise, the Hill is positively buzzing today.

At 10:00 am ET, the Senate Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs Committee holds a hearing on identity theft; ChoicePoint vice president Don McGuffey is among those testifying.

Also at 10:00 am ET, the Senate Judiciary Committee's Terrorism, Technology, and Homeland Security Subcommittee assesses the OPEN Government Act of 2005, aimed at overhauling the Freedom of Information Act. Former AP Washington bureau chief (and legend) Walter Mears is among those testifying.

House Majority Leader Tom DeLay holds a pen-and-pad briefing at 10:55 am ET.

Sens. Maria Cantwell (D-WA) and John Kerry (D-MA) hold a news conference at 11:00 am ET to talk about opposing drilling in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge.

At 2:30 pm ET, the House International Relations Committee looks at UN reform, with a star-studded witness list including former Secretary of State Madeleine Albright; former U.S. ambassador to the United Nations Richard Holbrooke; and former U.S. ambassador to the United Nations Jeane Kirkpatrick.

At 3:30 pm ET, Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist (R-TN), Sen. Mitch McConnell (R-KY) and Sen. Rick Santorum (R-PA) hold a news conference to discuss changes to medical liability.

Rep. Carolyn Maloney (D-NY) holds a press conference at 2:00 pm ET to re-introduce the Equal Rights Amendment.

At 9:00 am ET, missile defense is on the agenda for the House Armed Services Committee.

At 11:00 am ET, Sens. Thomas Carper (D-DE), Lincoln Chafee (R-RI), Jon Corzine (D-NJ) and Max Baucus (D-MT) hold a news conference to discuss Amtrak's budget at Union Station.

Elsewhere in town . . .

At 9:30 am ET, the National Press Club holds a panel discussion about the protection of confidential sources and reporters who face imprisonment for refusing to reveal their identities. Participants include Judith Miller and Matthew Cooper, Michael Kinsley, and Lucy Dalglish, executive director of the Reporters Committee for Freedom of the Press.

It's the second and final day of the American Medical Association's National Advocacy Conference in Washington, DC. Among those speaking: Medicare and Medicaid administrator Mark McClellan (8:00 am ET); Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist (8:50 am ET); HHS Secretary Mike Leavitt (9:30 am ET); Rep. Bart Gordon (D-TN) (10:15 am ET); Rep. Harold Rogers (R-KY) (10:45 am ET); Rep. Michael Burgess (R-TX) (11:15 am ET).

It's also the third and final day of the conference of the Religious Action Center of Reform Judaism holds its 2005 Consultation on Conscience conference in Washington, DC. Speakers include: Sen. Ken Salazar (D-CO) and Rep. Allyson Schwartz (D-PA) (8:15 am ET); Sen. Mike DeWine (R-OH) (10:30 am ET); Sen. Sam Brownback (R-KS) (noon ET); Sen. Joseph Lieberman (D-CT) (1:45 pm ET); Ben Cohen, founder of Ben and Jerry's Ice Cream, and Sen. Patrick Leahy (D-VT) (2:15 pm ET); Sen. Joseph Biden (D-DE) (3:00 pm ET).

And this afternoon, at a time To Be Determined (as of this writing), former DNC chairman Terry McAuliffe heads to Fox, where he'll fill in for Alan Colmes on an episode of Hannity and Colmes. Set your TiVo (LINK) for 9:00 pm ET -- and then watch anyway!!!

At 6:30 pm ET, Virginia Gov. Mark Warner keynotes the Georgia Democratic Party's Jefferson-Jackson dinner.

Social Security: the politics:
The Washington Post's Jonathan Weisman turns in another look at the new Post-ABC/ABC-Post poll, leading with the mere 35 percent who approve of President Bush's handling of the issue -- and offers a great explanation of the conundrum middle-aged workers face in having to wait before being able to contribute the maximum amount to their personal accounts. LINK

But Bloomberg's Jeff Bliss and Peter Cook report that Sen. John Sununu (R-NH) is optimistic that congressional Republicans can overcome the skepticism and pass a Social Security overhaul this year.

But the Washington Post's Jeffrey Birnbaum reports that it's not just the public who's skeptical about the President's Social Security plan -- some in the business community are jittery too. The Financial Services Forum, an association of 19 heads of large financial services companies, is withdrawing from Compass, the financial industry's group to gain support for the plan. LINK

"The forum is the third defection in a month from business-led Social Security coalitions. Waddell & Reed Financial Inc., a Kansas-based money management company, and Edward D. Jones & Co., a Missouri-based brokerage, withdrew from the Alliance for Worker Retirement Security. The alliance, a sister organization to Compass, focuses on direct lobbying of Congress on behalf of Bush's proposal, which includes private accounts as part of Social Security."

"The moves are a blow to Bush's effort. The White House is relying on coalitions such as Compass and the alliance to help persuade lawmakers and the public to rally behind the president's plan. Wall Street groups have been leaders in the fundraising for those drives."

"Organized labor and the AARP, the senior citizens lobby, have been raising and spending amounts that rival the business coalitions and their allies, but neither have had to contend with similar discontent in their ranks."

The Los Angeles Times' Peter Wallsten portrays the development as the latest wobble in the house of cards. LINK

Bloomberg's Heidi Przybyla reports that financial companies like Charles Schwab & Co. and Wachovia Corp., who support the President's Social Security plan, will soon find themselves targets -- of the AFL-CIO. The country's largest labor union is planning at least 50 events, including rallies outside Schwab and Wachovia headquarters.

This is on top of AFSCME's letter writing campaign to executives including Schwab chairman Charles Schwab and Morgan Stanley chairman Philip Purcell, intimating that supporting the plan will cost them business when unions pull their pension plans. The AFL says they're also going after Schwab because of its ties to California Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger, who's pushing a ballot initiative to force state and local government workers into 401(k) plans instead of pensions.

David Brooks is pessimistic: "At this point there's no better than a one-in-four chance that some form of Social Security reform will be passed this year. There's no sign that Republicans will bend on their insistence on private accounts or Democrats on their opposition. There's no sign that enough Republicans will tolerate tax increases or that enough Democrats will tolerate benefit cuts." LINK

He blames it on Republican blunders (too little Congressional strategizing, too much think-tank worldview, no GOP skills at cross-party negotiation) and Democratic blunders (too afraid to compromise.)

Compared to his "provisional obituary," however, this morning finds an optimistic Wall Street Journal editorial board.

They give a hearty nod to Sen. Robert Bennett's progressive-indexing-based-on-income proposal, calling it the "best idea we've seen for engaging Democrats who might be inclined to approach Social Security constructively while letting Republicans stay true to their principles (i.e., no tax increases)."

"This is far more appealing politically, and less damaging economically, than Senator Lindsey Graham's alternative of socking middle-income Americans with a tax increase. Some conservatives with a glancing familiarity with economics are now saying it's no big deal to raise the $90,000 cap on wages subject to the 12.4% payroll tax."

One of Bennett's intellectual inspirations, Robert Pozen, explains progressive indexing in a separate, well-timed Journal op-ed.

On the same page, pollster John Zogby warns Democrats to ignore the potential of an ownership society -- at their peril.

Over in the New York Times, Paul Krugman warns folks -- and Democrats like Joe Lieberman -- not to be taken in by the President contention that the cost of waiting carries a price tag of $600 billion per annum. LINK

We sense of late that Krugman does not (HEART) Lieberman.

Time magazine's John Dickerson was out on the road with the President, and Notes Bush's apparent pleasure in being Salesman-in-Chief. LINK

"The President gets so folksy, he occasionally admits some truths his spinners have spent months trying to paper over. When one widow says she has invested in bonds as the safest investment, he cracks: 'Well, not so safe, unless we fix the deficit.' The audience laughs and Bush quickly rushes to cover his slip. 'We're fixing the deficit,' he promises."

Leader DeLay:
As a group of ethics watchdogs today call for an end to the ethics committee logjam and further scrutiny of Majority Leader Tom DeLay, the New York Times' Carl Hulse reports that members are still solidly behind their Leader but aren't unaware of the swarm of media attention to his potential problems.

"Senior Republican officials and other allies of Mr. DeLay say they believe he will be able to maintain his leadership authority as long as Republicans do not have to spend too much time explaining his conduct to voters back home." LINK

"Privately, some Republican lawmakers were much less supportive of Mr. DeLay, with one saying that if the steady drone of accusations persists, Mr. DeLay will be in trouble and could be forced to surrender his post. 'I don't know if it is tomorrow or next year, but it is inevitable,' said one lawmaker who would not be named for fear of antagonizing the leadership."

Reports the Chicago Tribune's Jill Zuckman: "DeLay plans to start talking to fellow Republicans in his own defense this week, a senior aide said, as Democrats intensify their attacks on him in an effort to neutralize their longtime foe." LINK

The Washington Post's E.J. Dionne sees House Majority Leader Tom DeLay's ethical issues, while a source of partisan fireworks, as part of a larger issue -- lobbying on Indian gaming and "a collision between the business interests of Republican lobbyists and the moral commitments of the party's large wing of social conservatives who strongly oppose the spread of gambling." LINK

Bush agenda:
Writes Zen Master David Sanger: "Behind President Bush's recent shift in dealing with Iran's nuclear program lies a less visible goal: to rewrite, in effect, the main treaty governing the spread of nuclear technology, without actually renegotiating it." LINK

"In what amounts to a reinterpretation of the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty, Mr. Bush now argues that there is a new class of nations that simply cannot be trusted with the technology to produce nuclear material even if the treaty itself makes no such distinction."

The Washington Post's Christopher Lee reports that the Bush Administration has given the Heisman to the GAO opinion condemning the practice by federal agencies of feeding PR "news stories" to TV stations, saying that the office of legal counsel doesn't agree with the GAO's finding that they're covert propaganda. LINK

The Los Angeles Times' Richard Simon previews the vote on ANWR drilling, casting some Republicans as very optimistic -- particularly given that it's attached to a budget bill that needs just a simple majority to pass. LINK

Watch for Sen. Kerry to take a lead role in the floor debate tomorrow.

Karen Hughes, nominated for undersecretary of state for public diplomacy, will be in charge of the Administration's efforts to change perceptions of the U.S. in the Muslim world, as everyone knows by now. LINK

Big casino budget politics:
As Sheryl Gay Stolberg and David Kirkpatrick know, when the Republican Study Committee and the Tuesday Group agree on budget principles, the GOP leadership has trouble on its hands. LINK

"In the House, the push against leadership is coming from conservatives and moderates concerned about spending. Last week, representatives of the 95-member conservative House Republican Study Committee met for the first time with members of the Tuesday Group, a coalition of 45 Republican moderates, to plot a joint effort for rule changes that would make it harder for the House to permit itself to exceed budget spending limits, as it has for each of the last 10 years."

"With the moderates' support, conservatives presented the party leadership with a proposal that would require a three-fifths majority for any spending proposals that exceed the budget guidelines. They threatened to block passage of the budget legislation if their demands were not met."

"Mr. DeLay, the majority leader, was staunchly opposed, saying the 'supermajority' idea would give Democrats more power. But Representative Mike Pence, Republican of Indiana and chairman of the House Republican Study Committee, has told Republican leaders that he has enough votes to derail the budget if nothing is done, two aides familiar with their negotiations said."

Sen. Gordon Smith (R-OR) wants the Medicaid cuts out of the budget. LINK

AP previews the fight over the budget, with Social Security in the middle. LINK

John Podesta lays out the Center for American Progress' plan to overhaul the tax system on the Washington Post's op-ed page -- taxing all income according to the same rate schedule, cutting payroll taxes, reducing the number of tax brackets, and expanding child tax credits. LINK

The question remains: can the party out of power build consensus and show discipline over something this complicated?

The Congress:
The Wall Street Journal's Brody Mullins writes that the window for passing pro-business legislation is shorter than advocates might think.

"Though Republicans boast expanded majorities in Congress, priorities such as energy and asbestos legislation remain so contentious that overcoming Senate filibusters may be difficult. Making President Bush's capital-gains and dividend-tax cuts permanent stands at odds with some lawmakers' emphasis on deficit reduction. If those obstacles weren't enough, the attention that Mr. Bush's Social Security plan and judicial nominations will consume may reduce the time available for action."

"'The calendar is the real enemy here," says former Democratic Sen. J. Bennett Johnston of Louisiana, now an energy lobbyist allied with the White House on the pending legislation. 'There is not that much extra time on the floor considering all those things that they have to do.'"

He Notes the recent partial fracture of the asbestos consensus and Sen. Specter's efforts to heal it.

USA Today's Andrea Stone looks at the new Gallup poll that finds Congress is scoring only a 37 percent approval rating with voters, down from 45 percent last month and the worst rating since September 1999, during President Clinton's impeachment. LINK

Poll results: LINK

Democrats see this as a sign of the corrosive effect of the Social Security debate, but nobody knows for sure.

Baseball commissioner Bud Selig will testify on Capitol Hill Thursday in the congressional investigation of steroid use. LINK

Judicial politics:
The Boston Globe's Charlie Savage reports that Senate Republicans think they have enough votes to close the door on filibusters of judicial nominees -- and they're pushing their holdout, Majority Whip/Sen. Mitch McConnell (R-KY), who evidently is concerned that there's not enough of a clamor to go nuclear, to get on board. And some Republicans want to get the change done on a federal bench nominee, so it's settled by the time a Supreme Court nomination is on the table. And even George Will is moving from his opposition to the rules change. LINK

Former GOP Sens. Jimi McClure and Malcolm Wallop -- on the Wall Street Journal editorial page -- however, argue against The Option.

The Washington Post's Dana Milbank found Justice Scalia, in an appearance yesterday at the Woodrow Wilson Center (also thought by some to be a campaign appearance for Chief Justice) somewhat charming, yet true to his nature. LINK

The politics of same-sex marriage:
The Los Angeles Times' Lee Romney and Maura Dolan look at the decision yesterday by a California trial court judge that likened the state's ban on same-sex marriage to the "separate but equal" doctrine that governed segregation, and ruled the law unconstitutional -- and Notes that the decision will be stayed to allow an appeal, which could end up in California's Supreme Court.. LINK

"'No rational basis exists for limiting marriage in this state to opposite-sex partners,' wrote San Francisco Superior Court Judge Richard Kramer. 'Same-sex marriage cannot be prohibited solely because California has always done so before.'"

The San Francisco Chronicle's Bob Egelko analyzes the ruling. LINK, and looks at the road ahead for the decision. LINK

The ruling: LINK

2008: Democrats:
Spotted on Capitol Hill yesterday: Wes Clark, speaking, according to a source who was there, to a standing-room-only gathering of Democratic Senate staffers with a national security bent. Clark gave an upbeat account of the Party's fight to forge policy alternatives to President Bush's plans. He urged Democrats to stop talking about exit strategies and timelines and focus on how to win in Iraq.

He also joined Leaders Reid and Pelosi for a closed-door meeting of their newly announced National Security Advisory Group, including bold-faced names Perry and Albright.

Per the New York Times: Peter Paul vs. Judicial Watch, former allies, current enemies. LINK

This is, to say the least, not at all upsetting to the Sidney Blumenthal and Ann Lewis.

2008: Republicans:
The Washington Times' Don Lambro and Amy Fagan Notice that a handful of the leading presidential possibilities for Republicans in 2008 are mildly pro-choice, and quote Bill Dal Col, who insists that only a pro-life nominee would be acceptable to the party. LINK

"Kellyanne Conway, Republican pollster and analyst, noted that while abortion once was a 'hot' issue, it has become 'muted if not neutered' by other social issues such as same-sex 'marriage,' cloning and religious freedom."

Sen. John McCain told reporters in Michigan on Monday that he wouldn't decide until after the 2006 elections whether or not he'll run for president. LINK

Rudy Giuliani will speak to the University of Colorado on April 3. LINK

2006:
Former congressman and NAACP president Kweisi Mfume will run for the U.S. Senate seat in Maryland being vacated by Sen. Paul Sarbanes. LINK; LINK

And Rep. Albert Wynn (D-MD) appears to be out, reports Roll Call's Josh Kurtz.

Roll Call's Lauren Whittington reports that the NRSC is looking to gin up a competitive challenge to Sen. Robert Byrd (D-WV).

The Chicago Sun-Times' Lynn Sweet reports that in a few weeks, Rep. Henry Hyde (R-IL) will announce his retirement, and takes a look back over his career. LINK

Chairman/Gov. Dean:
AP reports that Gov. Dean praised New Jersey Dems and acting Gov. Richard Codey for cleaning up the state party's image in the wake of Gov. McGreevey's resignation. LINK

Per the AP's David Gram, "A public watchdog group asked the Vermont Supreme Court on Monday to undo an agreement struck by former Gov. Howard Dean to keep documents from his administration sealed for 10 years." LINK

"In oral arguments more than two years after Dean left the governor's office to run for president, the state countered that executive privilege allowed Dean keep the 93 boxes of documents from the public."

Politics:
President Clinton is home resting after the procedure last week to remove scar tissue and fluid from his chest. LINK

King County's mishandled ballot tally has now grown to 660, an update that will make the state GOP's lawyers happy. LINK; LINK

The Hill's Alexander Bolton reports that former House Minority Leader Dick Gephardt is putting the finishing touches on his deal to join Goldman Sachs. Bolton also Notes Gephardt's also talking with Bryan Cave, and the other things that will keep his schedule humming: he'll serve as the advisory board chairman of the Richard A. Gephardt Institute for Public Service at Washington University in St. Louis, plans to serve on the board of Anheuser-Busch, and hit the speaker's circuit. LINK

Donna Brazile writes in Roll Call that it's time for some new faces, strategies, and tactics for progressives.

The New York Times' Michael Cooper manages to write a take-out on lobbying and machine politics in Albany that actually contains some new elements and new nuggets of news. Read the whole thing. LINK

Roll Call's Chris Cillizza looks at the possibility of a revamp of Louisiana's congressional districts, which appears to rest with Gov. Kathleen Blanco, who seems on the fence.

The Boston Globe's Peter Canellos examines the legacy of politics as a family business -- particularly how the importance of a father's falter on the son's ambition and strategy. LINK