Anxiety, optimism mix for Democrats as Biden works to reframe midterms: The Note

The TAKE with Rick Klein

The electoral environment is getting better for Democrats -- unless it's already too rough to overcome.

The party in power is talking about what it's gotten done -- unless it's still focused on what hasn't been accomplished.

And President Joe Biden is in the middle of the messaging -- unless he's not all that relevant to how either party runs its campaigns.

With the primaries pretty close to finished, the president will hone some midterm messaging on Thursday, headlining a Democratic National Committee rally in Maryland, just outside Washington, D.C.

His list of accomplishments has grown significantly in recent weeks, including Wednesday's announcement of a partial federal student-loan cancellation. While many outside advocates and leading Democrats cheered the move, it was also met by a familiar mix of progressive disappointment and Republican outrage -- a reminder that so much of what Biden and his party have done comes with substantial political downside.

The upside is also evident, particularly at a moment where Democrats are riding a winning streak. Tuesday's pair of special House elections in New York made it four in a row where Democrats outperformed a district's expectations and partisan lean; FiveThirtyEight's Nathaniel Rakich writes that "evidence is mounting that the national political environment right now actually leans toward Democrats."

There are multiple balancing acts for Biden now -- around taking credit for good news and voicing concern for challenges still lingering and even around how to get involved in midterm races where his presence won't always be welcome.

Still, after weeks where his predecessor has arguably driven more news cycles, Biden's turn to the general election is being welcomed by Democrats. For the first time in a while, some in the party are starting to believe what they've long said about their chances in November.

The RUNDOWN with Averi Harper

Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis wasn't on the ballot in Tuesday's primaries, but his picks in local school board races were and the vast majority of them won.

"We were able to take school boards that had leftist majorities ... people that wanted to mask your kids, people that wanted to indoctrinate your kids. We were able to replace them all across the state," DeSantis said at a campaign stop on Wednesday.

His comments followed appearances throughout the state earlier this week, dubbed the "DeSantis Education Agenda Tour," to highlight his school board endorsees.

It's a strategy that bolsters DeSantis' emphasis on cultural and educational issues, from restricting instruction on sexual orientation or gender identity to similar efforts to limit classroom conversations about race.

In order to secure the governor's endorsement, candidates filled out a survey about his controversial agenda on education. The survey concluded with a pledge for candidates to "stand with Ron DeSantis" and, among other things, "keep woke gender ideology out of schools," "reject the use of critical race theory" and "educate, not indoctrinate."

Organizing around schools isn't a new move for either party. Republicans have increasingly focused on it: The issue was utilized by now-Virginia Gov. Glenn Youngkin in his 2021 campaign, when he successfully mobilized voters around the idea of parents' rights.

But DeSantis endorsing in typically nonpartisan school board races is a move some consider unorthodox.

Cementing his influence on education isn't only important for DeSantis through the midterms -- but also as he builds a national profile ahead of a potential 2024 presidential run.

The TIP with Alisa Wiersema

Former Florida governor and current U.S. Rep. Charlie Crist spring-boarded into the general election on Wednesday, hours after winning the Democratic primary, by saying he does not want the votes of any fans of DeSantis, his November opponent.

"Those who support the governor should stay with him. I don't want your vote. If you have that hate in your heart, keep it there," Crist said in a news conference in St. Petersburg, ABC News' Miles Cohen reports. "I want the vote of the people of Florida who care about our state. Good Democrats, good independents, good Republicans."

Crist also lashed out at DeSantis' possible attempts to seek higher office in the future.

"His blind ambition for the presidency of the United States of America has taken his eye off the ball of this most beautiful state in the country, this most beautiful place to live in the world," Crist said in reference to Florida.

In the fallout, the DeSantis campaign launched a fundraising effort off Crist's comments and equated his words to Hillary Clinton categorizing "half of Trump's supporters" in 2016 into "a basket of deplorables."

At a campaign event Wednesday, DeSantis shot back while not referring to Crist by name.

"Let's get real here, let's stop denigrating people that you don't like, let's stop dividing people, and let's make sure that we all come together in the cause of freedom," he said.

When asked to clarify his comment in an interview with ABC News' Stephanie Ramos, Crist dug in by saying DeSantis voters wouldn't choose to join his coalition of supporters in the general election.

"Come on, let's be serious. Anybody who's a staunch DeSantis voter is more likely than not not going to vote for me or even consider doing so. Well, how we're going to win is have a united Democratic Party, get our fair share of the independent voters, and reasonable Republicans and moderate Republicans," Crist said.

NUMBER OF THE DAY, powered by FiveThirtyEight

9. That's the average number of percentage points by which Democrats have outperformed the partisan lean of districts in special elections since the Supreme Court overturned the constitutional right to abortion in late June. And notably, prior to the Dobbs v. Jackson Women's Health Organization decision, it was Republicans who were performing 2 points better, on average, in special elections. As FiveThirtyEight's Nathaniel Rakich writes, though, that's all changed since Dobbs -- and it's not just special elections where Democrats are gaining. There are a number of other factors that suggest the midterm environment is improving for Democrats. Read more from Nathaniel on why the national environment really might be on the upswing for Democrats.

THE PLAYLIST

ABC News' "Start Here" Podcast. Start Here begins Thursday morning with ABC's Arthur Jones II on President Biden's plan to cancel some student loan debt. Then ABC News contributor Sarah Isgur breaks down the growing trend of election deniers in the GOP. And, ABC's Tracy Wholf explains why teachers in Ohio's largest school system are on strike. http://apple.co/2HPocUL

WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW TODAY

• President Biden participates in a reception for the Democratic National Committee at 5 p.m. and in a rally for the DNC at 7 p.m. ET.
• White House press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre gives a press briefing at 12:45 p.m. ET.
• Florida's Democratic gubernatorial candidate, Charlie Crist, joins the Senate nominee, Rep. Val Demings (D-Fla.), and Agricultural Commissioner Nikki Fried in Tamarac, Florida, for the Florida Democratic Party's Unity Kickoff at 7 p.m. ET.

Download the ABC News app and select "The Note" as an item of interest to receive the day's sharpest political analysis.

The Note is a daily ABC News feature that highlights the day's top stories in politics. Please check back Friday for the latest.