State’s Voting History in Presidential Elections
Nevada has been on something of a winning streak, having picked the president for the last nine elections, dating back to Ronald Reagan's first term. The last time the state broke with the national trend was in 1976, when it voted for the incumbent, Gerald Ford, instead of Jimmy Carter.
More recently, that means that the state has voted for the Democratic candidate in the past two elections and the Republican candidate in the two elections before those.
How It Played in the Caucuses
The situation for the Democrats was a bit more contentious. In the end, Hillary Clinton won with 52.6 percent to Sen. Bernie Sanders' 47.3 percent, and the party's state caucuses turned violent when fights reportedly broke out between supporters of the two candidates.
Both of the campaigns and various PACs have been spending on ads in the Silver State, and that spending is going to be ramping up in the final days of the race.
The Clinton campaign is spending the more on ad buys than any other group on either side of the aisle. Before Sept. 19 it spent a nearly $5.58 million, while four PACs combined — the Latino Victory Fund, People for the American Way, Priorities USA Action and Vote Vets — spent a total of $5.96 million during the same time, according to CMAG/Kantar Media.
A similar amount is slated to be spent on ads from Sept. 20 to Election Day, with Clinton's campaign set to spend nearly $4.48 million and the Latino Victory Fund and Priorities USA Action spending nearly $5.61 million combined, CMAG/Kantar Media reports.
Republican ad spending hasn't been as high in the state, with the Trump campaign spending $757,011 from the start of the campaign through Sept. 19 and the NRA spending $319,622 in that time. The NRA is slated to outspend the Trump campaign from Sept. 20 to Election Day, with the NRA spending $189,100, versus the Trump campaign's $171,436.
The Republican National Committee has 55 staffers and 93 trained volunteer organizers in Nevada. For the Democrats, there are 16 offices, most of which are Democratic Coordinated Campaign offices. On both sides, efforts are being made for all Republican and Democratic candidates, not just the top of the ticket.
The economy and jobs was the top priority, according to Democratic caucus exit polls, with income inequality coming in a close second. Republicans placed a similar emphasis on the economy and jobs, followed by concern over government spending.
Half of Democratic caucusgoers expressed a desire to have someone who's electable or experienced, while having outsider status was more important to Republican caucus participants, with 61 percent of respondents favoring that to having experience.
Latest Poll Numbers
The latest state poll, from NBC/The Wall Street Journal/Marist, came out on Sept. 11 and had Clinton with a 1 point lead on Trump, 45 percent to 44 percent, putting the race within the poll's margin of error. When the Libertarian Party's Gary Johnson and the Green Party's Jill Stein are added to the question, there is the same gap, but the order is reversed: Trump leads with 42 percent, with Clinton at 41 percent, Johnson at 8 percent and Stein at 3 percent.