Biden falters in high-stakes debate, Trump spews falsehoods

Biden had a poor start to this debate, and if he ends up being viewed as the "loser" tonight, he'd be just the latest incumbent president to go through this. Incumbent presidents like Ronald Reagan in 1984, George W. Bush in 2004, Barack Obama in 2012 and Trump in 2020 all lost 2 to 3 points in the polls after their first debate.

Reagan, the last president to face real questions about his age -- he was 73 in 1984 -- had a meandering performance that prompted questions about whether he had gotten too old for the job. Reagan shot back in the second debate against Democratic nominee Walter Mondale, who was in his mid-50s, with the famous line: "I will not make age an issue of this campaign. I am not going to exploit, for political purposes, my opponent's youth and inexperience." Reagan, however, also had a roaring economy, which helped him win a landslide reelection victory.

-Geoffrey Skelley, 538

An hour in and here is the Biden campaign spin on what so far has been a rocky performance by the president.

Biden has a cold (but tested negative for COVID-19), the campaign confirms. They haven't offered any explanation for why they didn't disclose this sooner.

Overall, the campaign says they are feeling fine. They agree it was a slow start but say he's found his groove.

-ABC News' Mary Bruce and Molly Nagle

Trump has made several comments about going after his political opponents and retribution. Asked to clarify what he meant, Trump replied, "Well, I said my retribution is going to be success."

He also contended that he's done nothing wrong despite his numerous criminal and civil cases.

Biden fired back contending that Trump's claims that he has the right to seek retribution is wrong. He then went after Trump over his various scandals.

"The crimes you are still charged with and think of all the civil penalties you have, how many billions of dollars ... and civil penalties? For molesting a woman in public for doing a whole range of things ... having sex with a porn star ... while your wife was pregnant? What would you be talking about? You have the morals of an alley cat," Biden said.

After a stifled and stumbling opening statement, Biden has had some good replies to Trump when talking about policy -- especially on abortion and Jan. 6. But that will be little comfort for his campaign, which is fighting hard against the impression that Biden is too old to hold office. In a 538/Ipsos poll of Americans released today, 40% of Americans said they rated Biden's mental fitness to be president as "terrible," compared to 35% for Trump -- and fewer Americans rate him positively for his physical fitness to lead, too.

538's election forecasting model currently gives Biden and Trump each a 50-in-100 chance of winning the election. Biden's initial impression could prevent him from making sizable gains over those numbers, despite the rest of his performance.

-538's G. Elliott Morris