SOTU is a soft-launch for Biden 2024
Biden may still be some ways from formally declaring his intentions about a 2024 reelection campaign, but his message on Tuesday -- he wants to "finish the job" -- certainly hints at another bid.
Yet this comes in the face of polls that have shown an unusually high percentage of Americans don't want him to run again -- including Democrats. In a new ABC News/Washington Post survey, 58% of Democrats said they wanted the party to nominate someone other than Biden, a finding echoed by a recent AP/NORC survey, too. Now, it's not unheard of for the public to prefer that a president not run again. For instance, majorities told pollsters at different points in 1982 and 1983 that they didn't want Ronald Reagan, another older president, to run again. But in those polls, a majority of Republicans still wanted four more years of Reagan, in contrast to what Democrats are saying in polls about Biden.
However, none of this means Biden will be an underdog in the 2024 Democratic primary. Fact is, elected presidents rarely face serious opposition for renomination. Importantly, Biden has a solid approval rating among Democrats -- around 80% for better in most polls -- so while many Democrats express skepticism toward another Biden run, most also don't mind how he's governing the country. This complicates any would-be challenger justifying a campaign against Biden.
Moreover, the potential Democratic candidates polling best against Biden are in his administration -- Vice President Kamala Harris and Secretary of Transportation Pete Buttigieg -- making them unlikely to run against him. Although we can't discount someone from the left taking on Biden, the leftward threat posed by Vermont independent Sen. Bernie Sanders faded when he encouraged the party to coalesce around Biden ahead of Super Tuesday in 2020 -- before Biden was the clear leader of his party. Barring a major collapse in Biden's standing, then, a serious primary challenge appears unlikely.
-FiveThirtyEight's Geoffrey Skelley