Addressing his first divided Congress, Biden says 'the soul of this nation is strong'

The parents of Tyre Nichols, the 29-year-old Black man who was attacked by Memphis, Tennessee, police officers and later died, were present at Tuesday's State of the Union, where President Biden encouraged lawmakers to "come together and finish the job on police reform."

That may be easier said than done, though. A compromise on a federal policing bill died in the Senate in 2021 and key GOP lawmakers have already expressed skepticism that federal police reform measures would have prevented Nichols's death.

Another issue, though, is that many Republican voters don't think that there's a systemic issue with policing, according to recent polls. A new ABC News/Washington Post survey, for example, found that 72% of Republicans are confident that the police treat both Black and white people equally, compared with just 14% of Democrats. Another survey by the Pew Research Center, meanwhile, found that 70% of Republicans and Republican-leaners said that police across the country do at least a good job at treating racial and ethnic groups equally, while just 18% of Democrats and Democratic-leaners voiced the same opinion.

Of course, that's not to say reform can't happen. Biden and the Congressional Black Caucus are talking about what reforms they want to see passed. But even though some polls show an overall drop in confidence toward the police since July 2020, gains in support for reform, among white Americans in particular, tend to be fleeting. So action on policing is anything but a sure-fire thing.

-FiveThirtyEight's Alex Samuels

As Biden touts his support for Ukraine in its war against Russia -- calling it out as one of his defining successes of the past year -- he is speaking from a position of relative strength: Americans generally feel better about Biden's Ukraine policies than about his domestic ones. For example, a recent ABC News/Washington Post poll found that his approval rating on the Russia-Ukraine conflict (38%) was higher than on the economy (37%) or the immigration situation on the U.S.-Mexico border (28%).

In addition, according to Gallup polling, a plurality of Americans (39%) think the U.S. is doing the right amount to help Ukraine, while 30% think the U.S. is not doing enough and only 28% think it is doing too much. However, as my colleague Cooper Burton wrote last month, support for aiding Ukraine has cooled a bit since the war started in February 2022, thanks in large part to decreased enthusiasm among Republicans.

-FiveThirtyEight's Nathaniel Rakich

One of the night's more contentious moments came when discussing the debt ceiling and the White House's disagreements with Republicans on government borrowing and spending.

"Some of my Republican friends want to take the economy hostage unless I agree to their economic plans," Biden argued. "All of you at home should know what those plans are. Instead of making the wealthy pay their fair share, some Republicans want Medicare and Social Security to sunset."

The remark was met with resounding boos, and GOP Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene could be seen calling out "liar."

Speaker McCarthy has also publicly said potential cuts to Medicare and Social Security are "off the table."

Biden continued on to say that he didn't think it was a majority of Republicans or even a significant number, and that he was "politely not naming them."

Based on the booing, he said, "So folks, we all apparently agree, Social Security and Medicare off the books now, right?" he said, which was followed by applause. "All right, we got unanimity."

"Let's stand up for seniors," he added. "If anyone tries to cut Medicare, I will stop them, I will veto it."

Biden is making the argument that his immigration policies have improved the situation at the southern border. However, Americans may not buy it. Poll after poll suggests that Biden's approval ratings are weakest on immigration. For example, ABC News/Washington Post's latest poll found that his approval/disapproval rating on the immigration situation at the border is just 28% approval compared to 59% disapproval. And a January poll from Quinnipiac University had even worse numbers for him: Only 18% approved of his handling of the situation on the Mexican border, while 68% disapproved. That was the lowest that number has ever been in Quinnipiac's polling.

-FiveThirtyEight's Nathaniel Rakich