MAGA win makes GOP Senate math tougher in Ohio: ANALYSIS

Ohio's Senate primary on Tuesday marked another MAGA win -- a decisive victory by a Trump-backed candidate against an establishment-favored challenger and a third Republican who already holds statewide office.

That's not the same as calling it a win for the Republican Party.

Former President Donald Trump succeeded in getting his choice past the other challengers. Bernie Moreno, a wealthy former car dealer who has never held political office, won the right to face off against Sen. Sherrod Brown, D-Ohio, in what promises to be one of the marquee races of 2024.

Moreno defeated two high-profile candidates in the GOP primary, which was widely seen as a free-for-all before Trump got involved on behalf of Moreno. State Sen. Matt Dolan, whose family owns the Cleveland Guardians, was the choice of much of the state's Republican old guard -- including Gov. Mike DeWine and former Sen. Rob Portman. Secretary of State Frank LaRose, long seen as a GOP rising star, was also in the mix.

Connections to the likes of DeWine and Portman were practically used as slurs in the primary race. Trump -- speaking at a Moreno rally over the weekend overshaded by his "bloodbath" comment -- mocked Dolan as a "weak RINO" (Republican in name only) who wanted to follow in the footsteps of the GOP's 2012 presidential nominee.

"He's trying to become the next Mitt Romney. I think Mitt Romney is his hero," Trump said.

Moreno has sought to erase memories of his once-biting critiques of Trump, back when he was a donor and not a candidate in 2016. More recently, an Associated Press report published in the closing days of the campaign linked him to an adult website – a connection Moreno denied, with his lawyer providing a statement from a former intern who said it was a prank. But that hints at potential distractions that could emerge in a general election campaign.

Democrats were so confident that Moreno would be easier to beat than his GOP rivals that a big-money group with ties to Senate Democrats spent heavily to "attack" Moreno as "too conservative for Ohio" – the latest chapter in a long-running playbook of cross-party primary meddling.

In a statement Tuesday night, Brown made clear that Moreno's business record would be used against him in the general election.

"The choice ahead of Ohio is clear: Bernie Moreno has spent his career and campaign putting himself first and would do the same if elected," Brown said.

Moreno's victory came on the same day as presidential primaries in five states again showcased ongoing GOP divisions. While Trump's final primary opponent, Nikki Haley, dropped out two weeks ago, and Trump clinched enough delegates to win the nomination last week, roughly 20% of Republican voters again selected candidates other than Trump across several states that voted Tuesday.

In Ohio, some 20% of Republican primary voters said they would be dissatisfied with Trump as the nominee, according to exit polls. Twenty-two percent said Trump lacks the "temperament" to serve effectively, and another 28% said he would not be fit for office if convicted of a crime -- striking numbers, particularly given that these are voters still voting in Republican primaries after the highest-profile race was finished.

Trump's sway in primary races has long outstripped the appeal of his chosen candidates in general elections. In 2022, Trump-backed Republicans plowed through primaries but lost potentially winnable Senate races in states including Georgia, Pennsylvania and Arizona.

Moreno abandoned a brief 2022 campaign for Senate because Trump was backing another candidate, J.D. Vance, who went on to keep the seat in GOP hands. Vance repaid the favor by vocally supporting Moreno this year in a bitter and often petty primary race.

Vance, like Moreno, evolved relatively quickly from a never-Trump Republican to a MAGA standard-bearer. They both recognized the potent political force that Trump represents, particularly in a state like Ohio, a once-classic battleground now shaded decisively red at the presidential level.

Ohio is one of three states where a Democratic senator is defending a seat in a state won by Trump in 2016 and 2020.

Democrats have all but given up on keeping Sen. Joe Manchin's seat in West Virginia, leaving Republicans with a near-automatic pickup -- enough by itself to flip the Senate if Trump wins the presidency. That will place a fall spotlight on Ohio and Montana, where Trump essentially cleared the primary field last month with his chosen candidate to take on Sen. Jon Tester.

Ohio was widely viewed as the best chance anti-Trump Republicans had of beating back MAGA forces in a Senate primary this year. Those hopes were blown up in now-familiar fashion -- with consequences for campaigning and governing in 2024 and beyond.