The Note: Biden runs his own race — with caveats

The TAKE with Rick Klein

The Biden campaign has heard the concerns and the jokes about his basement. From the candidate on down, the Biden camp wants the word out: They don’t care. “Everybody says, you know, ‘Biden's hiding,'” former Vice President Joe Biden said on ABC’s “Good Morning America” Tuesday. “Well let me tell you something, we're doing very well.”

“Voters don’t give a s--- about where he’s filming from,” Biden campaign manager Jen O’Malley Dillon told the Associated Press this week.

“The vast majority of the voters out there that have voted, including young people, are not getting all their news from the internet,” Biden told Peter Hamby of Snapchat.

It reflects the confidence of a campaign that wound up rolling through the primaries despite digital and generational divides. But it’s still notable that Biden said that about the internet *on Snapchat* … and that he has started sitting in his yard for interviews. 

Yes, Biden is running this race on his own terms. Those terms, though, have adjusted enough to accommodate campaign task forces that include Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and other progressives, and a vice-presidential search Biden limited from the start to include only women. President Donald Trump is running a campaign based on disruption and media ubiquity. He has barely changed tactics in the midst of a pandemic that is defining his presidency.

Just as quickly, Trump has sought to reframe his response to COVID-19, and to go on the attack against Biden.

Trump heads to battleground Pennsylvania on Thursday; Biden is holding a “virtual roundtable” with three Democratic governors.

Biden’s big gamble -- perhaps the biggest gamble of the whole campaign -- is that Americans are living their lives in a world removed from day-to-day political combat.

His campaign wants Democrats to know that he can fight as well as fight back. But doing so will require Biden being right in a way that a long list of vanquished Trump opponents were wrong.

The RUNDOWN with MaryAlice Parks

For millions of Americans, the stress of losing their jobs during this pandemic could be compounded by additional stress of losing employer-based health insurance, too.

In a new report out Wednesday, the Kaiser Family Foundation estimated that nearly 27 million Americans could potentially lose health insurance following the loss of their job this spring, including millions of dependents who may lose coverage if or when a family member loses their job and benefits.

The problem, especially acute during a health care crisis, will likely underscore the patchwork of systems for buying insurance and varied eligibility standards state to state and coast to coast. In short, where someone lives will likely determine how easy it will be for them to get new insurance if they lose their current coverage.

Fourteen states, including large ones like Florida and Texas, never expanded Medicaid under the Affordable Care Act, meaning that far fewer residents in those states will be eligible for government-provided health insurance if their income drops dramatically to near poverty levels.

Americans with higher incomes looking to buy their own new, private insurance plans will now have an easier time if they had health insurance previously through their employer or live in a state that runs its own marketplace.

Politics are hanging over all of this policy, too, of course.

The administration is standing by Texas and a group of Republican-led states suing to invalidate the entirety of the ACA in a high-stakes case that will go before the Supreme Court this fall.

The TIP with Kendall Karson and Meg Cunningham

The pair of special elections on Tuesday tell two different stories, but lead to the same outcome: Republicans winning by double digits in one seat they were favored to win, and in another they tilted back into their control.

In California’s 25th Congressional District, where Christy Smith, a Democratic state lawmaker conceded to Mike Garcia, a political newcomer and former Navy pilot, Republican voters far outpaced Democrats on ballot returns so far, 46% to 32% -- with some votes still outstanding. But Democrats have plenty of room to make up the deficit by the fall, with nearly 30,000 more registered voters across the district, and, with higher turnout, the seat is likely favored to swing back to blue.

In Wisconsin’s 7th Congressional District, which covers the rural northwestern corner of the state, state Sen. Tom Tiffany delivered a decisive win over Tricia Zunker, but his margin of victory shows signs of the GOP's slipping grip on the deep red district. Tiffany's 14-point margin is smaller than his predecessor's 22-point margin in 2018 and Trump's 20-point margin in 2016 to carry the district. Still, turnout overall in the district, according to current tallies, is down from just one month ago, with 191,525 votes cast, compared to 227,031 being cast in last month's competitive state Supreme Court race.

Democrats, though, aren't fazed by these outcomes, nor expect them to forebode anything for November: "There'd be more to say if Republicans hadn't dropped the ball on fundraising and recruiting this cycle. From California to Utah to Michigan to New York, Republicans recruited fourth-rate candidates who can't afford to put up a fight against Democratic incumbents with massive war chests. House Republicans should savor this week's elections. They're the only fights all year when Republicans will be able to afford the cost of admission," a Democratic strategist told ABC News.

ONE MORE THING

Rick Bright, the former head of the federal agency charged with overseeing the rapid production of a vaccine to fight the novel coronavirus, will warn of the "darkest winter in modern history" if the United States -- in his words -- does not develop a coordinated approach based in science to combat the virus. He testifies before the House Energy and Commerce Subcommittee on Health Thursday morning.

BRINGING AMERICA BACK

Americans are beginning to see an ease on social-distancing restrictions, but the approaches vary from state to state, ABC News has compiled a guide on the status of stay-at-home orders and what each state's reopening plan looks like. Read this story and more by checking out Bringing America Back, an ABC News feature that highlights the day's top stories in economic recovery and medical preparedness amid the coronavirus pandemic.

WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW TODAY

ABC News' "Start Here" podcast. Thursday morning’s episode features ABC News Chief National Affairs correspondent Tom Llamas, who tells us about the varying approaches schools are taking for classes in the fall. Then, ABC News Deputy Political Director MaryAlice Parks discusses the struggle for those who have lost their health insurance during the pandemic. And, ABC News Political Director Rick Klein examines the Biden campaign’s approach to digital organizing. http://apple.co/2HPocUL

ABC News' "Powerhouse Politics" podcast. Congress has allocated states the money they need to begin safely reopening, Sen. Bill Cassidy, R-La., told ABC News Political Director Rick Klein and Chief White House Correspondent Jonathan Karl. https://abcn.ws/3dKYLPk

The FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast. On this week’s FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast, the team considers the politics and practicalities of states reopening amid the COVID-19 pandemic. They also discuss which party is ahead in the race for Senate. https://53eig.ht/2M0rQx6

WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW TODAY

Download the ABC News app and select "The Note" as an item of interest to receive the day's sharpest political analysis.

The Note is a daily ABC News feature that highlights the day's top stories in politics. Please check back tomorrow for the latest.