The Note: Campaign’s defining issue leaves Trump behind

The TAKE with Rick Klein

The opportunities are there for President Donald Trump to change the subject -- not that he's needed an excuse to try to do so in the past.

Yet three weeks before Election Day, all signs point to a country that recognizes what the defining issue of the moment is. The president himself, just 10 days from his COVID-19 diagnosis, is a living example of why it still matters.

With Trump returning to the trail Monday, with a rally scheduled in Florida to start what's expected to be a busy week of in-person campaigning, a new ABC News/Washington Post poll finds a 54%-42% lead for former Vice President Joe Biden, with an advantage that's driven by perceptions of COVID-19.

Trump's own illness drives home key takeaways. Sixty-five percent of registered voters say the president failed to take appropriate precautions to guard against the virus; 62% say they don't trust what he says about it; only 21% say it's under control; and Biden is trusted more to handle it by a yawning 17-point gap.

In a different reality, Biden's ducking of questions about court packing could drive a news cycle, and Supreme Court confirmation hearings would focus the political world. Anything from Trump's tweets to his attempts to use the levers of government to help his campaign could move polling needles.

This race, though, remains remarkable for its steadiness in the face of wild events. That includes a steady and politically brutal judgment on the president and how he handled the biggest health crisis in generations -- on behalf of the country, and on behalf of himself.

A president who needed the campaign to be a choice is now well into an election that's looking more like a referendum by the day.

The RUNDOWN with MaryAlice Parks

Though Capitol Hill is still closed to the public and several senators plan to participate remotely, the Senate Judiciary Committee will commence Judge Amy Coney Barrett’s confirmation hearings Monday.

With just over three weeks until Election Day, the fact that these hearings are taking place at all is controversial and unprecedented. According to the latest ABC News/Washington Post poll, most Americans would prefer the U.S. Senate waited and let the winner of the coming presidential election nominate the next Supreme Court justice to the lifetime post.

Expect Democrats to focus the hearings on health care, with the Affordable Care Act back in front of the Supreme Court in mid-November, as well as the long-standing laws in the country that allow for legal abortions.

Social conservatives have made clear their intention to also challenge the bedrock cases that legalize abortion if President Trump successfully appoints yet another justice to the high court -- though doing so, and admitting to such a plan, could be politically toxic. The fact is, a majority of Americans have long supported legal abortion in the country.

In the same poll this weekend, 40% of Republicans and 62% of all respondents said they thought the original law that legalized abortion, Roe v. Wade, should be upheld. That number included 44% of self-identified evangelical Protestants.

The TIP with Kendall Karson

South Carolina's Senate race is in the spotlight this week in more ways than one. Democrat Jaime Harrison broke a fundraising record, his campaign announced on Sunday, bringing in an astonishing $57 million over the last three months. Sen. Lindsey Graham, the three-term incumbent Republican, is set to helm confirmation hearings for Trump's third nominee to the nation's highest court starting on Monday.

It's a whirlwind two days for the two men who are in a dead heat in recent polling -- and Harrison's staggering sum comes just two days after their most recent debate was replaced with solo interviews after Graham refused to take a COVID-19 test.

The stakes could not be higher for either candidate. Harrison is hoping to unseat Graham in a race that was once considered a long shot for the Democrats. Now Graham is fighting for his political life.

The attention on Graham will certainly not subside this week, as he emerges as the face of the controversial decision to move forward with Judge Amy Coney Barrett's nomination just 22 days before the election -- potentially further fueling energy for his Democratic challenger.

ONE MORE THING

More than six in 10 registered voters say the U.S. Supreme Court should uphold Roe v. Wade as the basis of abortion law in the United States, and a majority in an ABC News/Washington Post poll -- albeit now a narrow one -- says the Senate should delay filling the court's current vacancy. And in a bonus episode of ABC News' "Start Here" podcast, learn how a national poll comes together.

THE PLAYLIST

ABC News' "Start Here" podcast. Monday morning's episode features ABC News' Trish Turner, who brings us the latest on coronavirus relief negotiations in Congress and previews Justice Amy Coney Barrett's Supreme Court confirmation hearing. ABC News' Clayton Sandell joins us from Denver where a protest turned deadly over the weekend. And Wright Thompson, from our partners at ESPN, tells us why the future of horse racing may hinge on the animal's bloodlines. http://apple.co/2HPocUL

FiveThirtyEight Politics Podcast. Former Vice President Joe Biden's lead over President Donald Trump in the presidential race grew to double digits in our national polling average on Friday. In this episode of "Model Talk" on the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast, Nate Silver talks to Galen Druke about why Trump's national position has worsened, how it compares with his polls in key battleground states and what the forecasts of the House and Senate look like. They also answer listener questions. https://53eig.ht/2M0rQx6

WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW TODAY

Download the ABC News app and select "The Note" as an item of interest to receive the day's sharpest political analysis.

The Note is a daily ABC News feature that highlights the key political moments of the day ahead. Please check back tomorrow for the latest.