The Note: The Polls, They Are A Changing

August 13, 2015, 9:49 AM


--FIORINA AND CARSON ON THE RISE: Just a week ago, businesswoman Carly Fiorina wasn't even on the cusp on making the cut for the first Republican debate. But now, she's soared into a tie for fifth place in Iowa and a tie for fourth in New Hampshire with 9 percent, according to new CNN/ORC and Boston Herald/Franklin Pierce polls out in the last few days, according to ABC's RYAN STRUYK. The CNN/ORC poll shows Carson surging into second place -- overtaking Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker and trailing frontrunner Donald Trump by just eight points.

--SANDERS LEADING CLINTON IN NEW HAMPSHIRE: Meanwhile, Hillary Clinton's road to the Democratic nomination has developed some potholes. A new Boston Herald/Franklin Pierce University poll out this week shows progressive rival Sen. Bernie Sanders leading Clinton by seven points in New Hampshire, 44-37 percent. It's the first time the Vermont independent has led in any poll in any state this election cycle.

--TROUBLE WITH E-MAILS: A majority of Americans say that Clinton's emails should be subject to a criminal investigation for potential release of classified material, according to a new Monmouth University poll out yesterday. Still, 51 percent say that she just used her personal email for convenience and that it doesn't suggest she has anything to hide. But news of her private email server has grabbed the headlines, and Americans are paying attention. Six in 10 -- including a majority of independents -- say they have seen or heard "a lot" about Clinton's private email account, according to the same poll. Only 15 percent say they haven't heard anything at all. Clinton has maintained that she did nothing illegal.

--TODAY ON THE TRAIL with ABC's SHUSHANNAH WALSHE: The Iowa State Fair kicks off today and candidates will be speaking from the Iowa State Fair Soapbox. Mike Huckabee speaks at 11:30 AM ET, Jim Webb at 2 PM, and Martin O'Malley at 5 PM. Also in Iowa: Jeb Bush, Carly Fiorina and Rick Santorum. Ted Cruz continues his bus tour of the South and makes stops in Oklahoma. Rand Paul and Bern Carson are in New Hampshire. Rick Perry is in South Carolina. At 6:30pm he will attend the Anderson County Republican Party town hall in Anderson.


HILLARY CLINTON EMAIL: YOUR QUESTIONS ANSWERED. There were big developments last night in the ongoing story of Hillary Clinton's private email server. First, she directed her campaign to turn over the server to the FBI, which is investigating her handling of potentially sensitive material. And second, it was revealed from the Intelligence Community's internal watchdog that among the emails that it has reviewed so far, at least two of the emails on that server contained information that has been deemed "TOP SECRET." The Intelligence Community is a collection of 17 U.S. government agencies that conduct intelligence activities. These developments beg some questions, ABC's JUSTIN FISHEL and MIKE LEVINE write, so here are some answers.

NOTED: TIPS ON DELETING EMAILS FROM EMAIL BOOK HILLARY CLINTON WANTED TO READ. The last batch of Hillary Clinton emails released by the State Department included one from Clinton asking to borrow a book called "Send: Why People Email So Badly and How to Do It Better," by David Shipley and Will Schwalbe. Clinton has not said why she requested the book, but it includes some advice that is particularly interesting in light of the controversy over her unconventional email arrangement at the State Department and her decision to delete tens of thousands of emails she deemed to be purely personal. The copy that ABC downloaded for $9.99 had some interesting revelations, ABC's JONATHAN KARL and SUMMER FIELDS note. Take, for example, Chapter Six: "The Email That Can Land You In Jail." The chapter includes a section entitled "How to Delete Something So It Stays Deleted."

MEET THE MOST INTERESTING 2016 CANDIDATES YOU'VE NEVER HEARD OF. There is a record-breaking number of GOP contenders for the 2016 election. Meanwhile, an incredible 512 candidates registered their names with the Federal Election Commission to run for president. Among those running are two separate men who claim to have invented Google, a young Brooklyn artist, a ninja and Sydney's Voluptuous Buttocks. And both Sara H. Paylin and Brystol S. Palyn have added themselves to the list. ABC's LOUISE SIMPSON and SUMMER FIELDS highlight a few of the men, women and animals who hope to be your next president.


"NEW HAMPSHIRE PRIMARY SOURCE: TRUMP, STATE CO-CHAIR DIFFER ON PLANNED PARENTHOOD FUNDING," by WMUR's John DiStaso. "Donald Trump made it clear this week that he believes Planned Parenthood is an 'abortion factory.' But, would he defund the organization? Not entirely, Trump said on CNN. 'What I would do when the time came, I'd look at the individual things they do, and maybe some of the individual things they do are good,' Trump said. So, Trump is open to what amounts to the status quo on Planned Parenthood, at least as far as New Hampshire is concerned."


JIMMY CARTER SEES OUTPOURING OF SUPPORT AFTER CANCER DIAGNOSIS. In the wake of the announcement Wednesday that President Jimmy Carter has cancer, the 39th president has seen an outpouring of support and well-wishes. President Obama released a statement saying that he and the first lady, along with the rest of America, are "rooting" for the 90-year-old president and wishing him a full recovery. "Michelle and I send our best wishes to President Carter for a fast and full recovery," the president said in a statement. Carter also received a flood of well-wishes on social media, according to ABC's JORDYN PHELPS and BENJAMIN SIEGEL. TV host Larry King was among the first to offer his best wishes to the Carter on Twitter.


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