Republicans Appear to Be on Rebound in Early Voting

Republicans are catching up to 2012 early voting levels in some key states.

More than 34 million Americans have already cast their ballots, according to data from The Associated Press. In some key states like Florida and Minnesota, more voters have cast their ballots early so far in 2016 than in all of 2012 early voting.


COLORADO. Republicans have narrowed the gap in Colorado from a 39-34 percent deficit one week ago had a 36-35 percent split today -– now a difference of just 13,000 votes. Still, on this day in 2012, Republicans had a slight advantage over Democrats, 37 percent to 35 percent. Colorado is doing all-mail voting for the first time this year, so the comparison is not ideal.

NEVADA. The margin today is 42 percent for Democrats vs. 37 percent for Republicans –- slightly tighter than the 44-37 percent gap at this point in 2012. That’s roughly a 34,000-vote gap in 2016. Still, it’s tightened slightly from the broad 46-36 percent advantage they had one week ago. Jon Ralston’s blog says this morning: “If Clinton holds her base here … and turnout patterns don't dramatically shift in the last two days of early voting, she can't lose Nevada. Solid lean Clinton right now.”


IOWA. Democrats hold a 43,000-vote lead over Republicans in Iowa so far (43-35 percent). This is slightly smaller than their 63,000-vote advantage at this point in 2012 (43-32 percent). Democrats have turned in 34,000 fewer ballots so far this year vs. a 14,000-vote increase for the GOP from this point in 2012.


OHIO. The number of votes cast from 2012 is down slightly, as well as the number of ballots requested. Some 1.1 million Ohio voters have cast their ballot vs. 1.2 million at this time in 2012 – though data is released weekly so comparisons are difficult. Meanwhile, 1.6 million absentee ballot applications had been requested vs. nearly 2 million in 2012. There are warning signs for Democrats: ballot requests were down in counties Obama had won, but this wasn’t the case in counties Romney had won. A Quinnipiac University poll yesterday there found Clinton ahead 58-32 percent among people who had already voted.

TEXAS. With early in-person voting ending tomorrow, Texas's 2016 early vote numbers continue to outpace ballots cast in 2012. Nearly 3.7 million votes have been cast so far this cycle compared to 3.4 million this time in 2012. While recent shifts in the electorate have softened Republican support in the state, Rice University Political Science Professor Robert Stein told ABC News he expects the state to remain out of reach for Democrats this cycle, with the possibility of a more competitive presidential race in the Lone Star State in 2020.

ABC News' Alana Abramson and John Kruzel contributed to this report.