Giuliani shifts tactics, goes on offensive in early states

— -- Republican Rudy Giuliani's plan to absorb punishment in the party's early primaries and then strike back in primaries in delegate-rich states on Jan. 29 and Feb. 5 has hit a wall, political analysts and strategists say.

Instead of emulating former heavyweight boxing champion Muhammad Ali's rope-a-dope strategy and letting his opponents tire themselves out in contests in Iowa and New Hampshire, the former New York mayor has had to start swinging hard in those states.

That's because Giuliani is behind in Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina, polls show. So while Ali's strategy enabled him to unseat heavyweight champ George Foreman in 1974, it won't help Giuliani win next year's Republican presidential nomination, political scientist Dante Scala said.

"He needs to break through before the end of January," said Scala, who teaches at the University of New Hampshire.

Giuliani's campaign sees an opportunity in New Hampshire's Jan. 8 primary, campaign manager Michael DuHaime said. First, however, Giuliani must overcome the lead by former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney, who lives less than 50 miles from the New Hampshire border.

A new CNN/WMUR New Hampshire Primary Poll released Wednesday put Romney at 32%, with Giuliani and Arizona Sen. John McCain well back at 19%.

Giuliani can't afford to wait until Florida and its Jan. 29 primary, said Andy Smith, who directs the University of New Hampshire Survey Center, which conducted the poll. The "front loading" of early primaries means that "momentum becomes an even more important factor in the nomination than it has been in previous years," Smith said.

That's why Giuliani's campaign has started working harder in New Hampshire, Smith said, although "they can't say that because they might raise expectations they can't meet."

While he acknowledged the argument about early momentum, DuHaime said the nomination will be determined by who wins the most delegates. That will be Giuliani, he said.

"It's all about delegate count," DuHaime said. "You don't have to win every single race to pick up delegates."