Ticket-splitting could hold hope for candidates in both parties: The Note
The divided votes may determine races in a range of battleground states.
The TAKE with Rick Klein
They’re the kind of voters who, in an age of hyper-partisanship and nationalized campaigns, some presume barely exist anymore.
Yet ticket-splitters are increasingly looking like they not only are out there -- but that they could determine critical races in a range of battleground states, without a clear edge for either Democrats or Republicans.
Thursday morning in New Hampshire, Gov. Chris Sununu will appear alongside new Republican Senate nominee Don Bolduc and Republican National Committee Chair Ronna McDaniel, in a post-primary show of GOP unity. But few are doubting Sununu will cruise to reelection while Bolduc -- whom Sununu himself derided as “not a serious candidate” before this week’s primary -- starts the general election behind Sen. Maggie Hassan, D-N.H.
A Quinnipiac poll out of Georgia out Wednesday had two statewide incumbents -- one a Democratic senator, the other a Republican governor -- holding narrow leads. Sen. Raphael Warnock hit 52% among likely voters in his race against Republican Herschel Walker, no small feat with 53% disapproval of President Joe Biden in the state, while Gov. Brian Kemp was at 50% against Democrat Stacy Abrams in the same poll.
In Pennsylvania, Republican Senate candidate Mehmet Oz is pursuing a broader coalition of voters than gubernatorial candidate Doug Mastriano -- even though both men were endorsed in their primaries by former President Donald Trump. Diverging positions on same-sex marriage and abortion rights speak to different theories of which voters they think they might win.
In Florida, Republicans are expecting Gov. Ron DeSantis to have an easier path to reelection than Sen. Marco Rubio. FiveThirtyEight’s polling average has DeSantis up by about 7 points and Rubio leading by roughly 4.
In 2020, the only state to support one party’s candidate for president and the other’s for Senate was Maine, which backed both Biden and Sen. Susan Collins on the same day.
This election is likely to feature far less straight-ticket voting -- with no obvious pattern beyond a pretty obvious one: Candidates matter.
The RUNDOWN with Averi Harper
President Joe Biden announced early Thursday that railway companies and unions have reached a tentative labor agreement, averting a freight strike that could have crushed the U.S. supply chain.
The deal came after 20 hours of negotiations at the U.S. Department of Labor and one day ahead of the strike deadline.
"These rail workers will get better pay, improved working conditions, and peace of mind around their health care costs: all hard-earned," Biden said in a statement.
A possible strike could have threatened the Biden administration's campaign season victory lap on the passage of the Inflation Reduction Act and encouraging economic news, such as falling gas prices and low unemployment.
The looming strike resulted from ongoing disputes between rail companies and the unions that represent rail workers, with union leaders calling for improved working conditions.
Experts warned a strike could have wreaked havoc across the country, crippling supply chains to the tune of $2 billion a day in economic output.
"The artery of the U.S. economy is the rail system. It's one of the ways we get everything around," Diane Swonk, chief economist at global tax firm KPMG, told ABC News in a recent interview. "One-third of everything gets around this way. And when you cut it, you have a stroke."
Passenger railroad service Amtrak released a statement Thursday saying it "is working to quickly restore canceled trains and reaching out to impacted customers to accommodate on first available departures."
The TIP with Alisa Wiersema
In hindsight, the 2022 primary season will go down as a largely successful political exercise for former President Trump and his endorsements -- except when it comes to incumbent Republican governors, which resulted in a mixed bag of political victories.
The season closed with New Hampshire Gov. Chris Sununu easily walloping his competition despite making it no secret that he's not one of the former president's biggest fans. In April, Sununu roasted Trump as "crazy" during a Washington, D.C., dinner attended by journalists.
Earlier in the year, Trump's pick in Georgia's high-profile GOP gubernatorial primary -- former Sen. David Perdue -- fell short to incumbent Brian Kemp. Their primary was marred by false election denial claims by Perdue that echoed Trump in baselessly alleging that Kemp was responsible for Trump's 2020 loss in the state.
In May, Idaho Gov. Brad Little beat Trump-endorsed Lt. Gov. Janice McGeachin after the two repeatedly clashed over COVID-19 executive orders issued by McGeachin when Little was out of state.
Still, Trump-backed gubernatorial candidates have had primary success elsewhere -- including the battlegrounds of Arizona and Pennsylvania. Democrats have even boosted the notoriety of some far-right, Trump-backed hopefuls throughout the primary season in the apparent hopes of seeing easier paths to victory when voters are faced with choosing controversial figures in their general elections.
With the weeks winding down to November, it now remains to be seen whether that bet proves to be true.
NUMBER OF THE DAY, powered by FiveThirtyEight
200. That’s the number of Republican candidates running for Senate, House, governor, attorney general or secretary of state who have falsely, publicly indicated that the 2020 presidential election was illegitimate. But as FiveThirtyEight’s Nathaniel Rakich found in his reporting, that might be an undercount. Read a scoop from Nathaniel on the Republican candidate running in Colorado’s 7th Congressional District who has said one thing publicly about the 2020 election -- and an entirely different thing privately.
ONE MORE THING
With the midterm elections just under two months away, ABC News Studios, George Stephanopoulos Productions (GSP) and Noble Beast have launched a new weekly political docu-series that brings viewers inside the top stories of the election campaign from an unparalleled, ground-level perspective on the candidates and their staff. “Power Trip – Those Who Seek Power and Those Who Chase Them,” the first weekly streaming docu-series produced from ABC News Studios, provides unmatched behind-the-scenes analysis powered by the ABC News political team led by George Stephanopoulos. Stephanopoulos will serve as a key advisor and mentor to the group of young, ambitious reporters as they master the challenge of campaign reporting while often struggling personally with the grueling task at hand. "Power Trip" begins streaming Sunday, Sept. 25, only on Hulu. More details will be announced Thursday on "Good Morning America" at 7 a.m. ET.
THE PLAYLIST
ABC News' "Start Here" Podcast. "Start Here" begins Thursday morning with a look at the midterms and why Republicans are struggling to agree on new abortion restrictions. ABC's Rachel Scott leads us off. Then ABC's Ian Pannell discusses the massive, tax-free fortune King Charles III is set to inherit as Britain faces an economic crisis. And, ABC's Cheyenne Haslett explains a new announcement on student debt forgiveness. http://apple.co/2HPocUL
WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW TODAY
- President Biden hosts and delivers a keynote speech at the "United We Stand" summit at 3:30 p.m. ET. Vice President Kamala Harris delivers welcome remarks at the summit at 10:10 a.m. ET.
- The vice president hosts a multilateral meeting with Caribbean leaders at Blair House at 1:45 p.m. ET.
- The president attends the 45th Congressional Hispanic Caucus Institute Gala on Thursday night, in honor of Hispanic Heritage Month.
- Press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre briefs at 1:15 p.m. ET.
- The House Committee on Oversight and Reform holds a hearing to examine the oil company's business practices at 9 a.m. ET.
- Virginia Gov. Glenn Youngkin campaigns for Nevada GOP gubernatorial candidate Joe Lombardo.
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The Note is a daily ABC News feature that highlights the day's top stories in politics. Please check back Friday for the latest.
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