Trump v. Hogan offers blue-state clues for GOP's future: The Note

The TAKE with Rick Klein

If former President Donald Trump does run again, it's now beyond clear that he won't get a free pass to the GOP nomination.

Among those ready to make sure of that is Maryland Gov. Larry Hogan, the term-limited outgoing Republican leader of a Democratic-leaning state. First comes a test Tuesday in Hogan's backyard -- and it might take a few days to get all the votes counted, in ways Republicans are starting to get familiar with.

Not for the first or last time this cycle, Hogan and Trump are on opposite sides of a competitive primary. Hogan is backing Kelly Schulz, a longtime friend and former member of his Cabinet who is hoping to recreate the moderate coalition Hogan rode to two terms as governor.

Trump is behind Dan Cox, a firebrand state delegate he has described as "100% MAGA." Cox helped bus supporters into Washington last Jan. 6 but said he wasn't part of the assault on the Capitol.

After then-Vice President Mike Pence made clear he would not reject electoral votes as Trump and his supporters were demanding, Cox tweeted -- and deleted after getting blowback -- "Pence is a traitor."

Hogan won reelection in Maryland by almost 12 points in 2018; Trump lost the state by 33 points two years later. But as in other Democratic strongholds, Trump remains popular with a vocal and active Republican base -- the kinds of people who vote in primaries.

The race is also a reminder that, despite explosive revelations out of the House Jan. 6 committee this summer, candidates who attacked the 2020 election continue to do well. At least 120-and-counting Republicans who baselessly deny the 2020 results have clinched GOP nominations in races for major statewide or congressional offices, according to data compiled by FiveThirtyEight and ABC News.

Republican primaries are still to play out in big battlegrounds this summer, including Arizona, Florida, Michigan and Wisconsin. The outcome in a blue state this week could offer a taste of what's ahead for the GOP.

The RUNDOWN with Alisa Wiersema

Although three of the last five gubernatorial contests in Maryland were won by Republicans, Democrats are hoping to flip the state's top executive office this year -- and voters have a bench of nine candidates to choose from in Tuesday's primary.

But the race is likely to come down to a three-way face-off between Tom Perez, the former Democratic National Committee chair and former Department of Labor secretary; state Comptroller Peter Franchot; and Wes Moore, an author and former nonprofit CEO. The fate of each candidate, given the nuances of their substance as well as style, will indicate more about where Democratic voters are hoping to see the party head.

Perez's national reputation could be seen as an asset at a time when governors are increasingly in the spotlight over states' rights while Franchot may be boosted by decades of experience in Maryland politics -- he began his state legislative career in 1986. And Moore's star-studded resume comes with a leaning toward progressive perspectives.

Regardless of the primary outcome, the stakes of the general election will be alleviated due to Maryland Democrats' grip on the state's General Assembly, which was further bolstered this year through redistricting.

But despite the party having a veto-proof majority in both chambers, the Democratic Governors Association sees Maryland as one of the best opportunities to flip a competitive Republican seat and are making it the latest state where they are willing to employ a potentially risky tactic to create a favorable environment to win.

In an effort to spotlight the profile of Republican gubernatorial hopeful Dan Cox, a recent DGA-backed ad labeled him as "100 percent pro-life" and willing to "protect the Second Amendment at all costs" while being "too conservative for Maryland."

The TIP with Brittany Shepherd

A winnowed group of Republican contenders to be Michigan's nominee to take on Democratic Gov. Gretchen Whitmer will meet Wednesday for their likely final debate ahead of the state's Aug. 2 primary.

That group of candidates includes real estate agent Ryan Kelley, who was arrested on misdemeanor charges by the FBI in early June for his connection to the riot at the Capitol. His home was also raided by federal authorities. He pleaded not guilty and was not accused of breaching and entering the Capitol itself.

In photos and videos obtained by authorities, Kelley is seen as a part of the mob at the insurrection -- but that apparently hasn't dimmed his popularity. Polls show him in a competitive lead with culture war-stoking Tudor Dixon and self-appointed "outside" candidate Kevin Rinke.

The party's attempt to procure a group of viable candidates has hit several snags over the past few months. Five GOP candidates for governor, many of whom championed stricter election laws, were disqualified from the ballot in May after state election officials found high levels of fraudulent signatures in their petitions to make the primary ballot.

At Wednesday's debate, the remaining five candidates could be forced to confront both Kelley's involvement in the Capitol riot and their opinions about the legitimacy of the 2020 presidential election.

Whitmer has positioned herself as a champion for women's health care and abortion access in the wake of the Supreme Court's monumental reversal of Roe v. Wade. As the fate of abortion rights is likely to be in the hands of Michigan voters this fall, as a ballot initiative to ensure access has picked up steam, the GOP candidates are likely to address how they'd steer the issue themselves.

NUMBER OF THE DAY, powered by FiveThirtyEight

3. That's the number of key primaries we're watching in Maryland on Tuesday night. And as FiveThirtyEight's Geoffrey Skelley writes, the primary of most consequence may be for the governor, which features a competitive race on both the Democratic and Republican sides as Gov. Hogan is term-limited. The question for Republicans in Maryland is whether they'll elect a nominee who is able to appeal to independents and Democrats, which they'll need in order to win in a state as blue as Maryland. Democrats, on the other hand, have their pick of choices, and all should be favored come November. There are also two key House primaries we're keeping an eye on: the 4th and 6th Congressional Districts. We won't be live-blogging the results at FiveThirtyEight, but if anything unexpected happens, we'll be there to analyze what went down on Wednesday.

THE PLAYLIST

ABC News' "Start Here" Podcast. "Start Here" begins Tuesday morning with a look at the extreme heat wave across Europe. ABC's Ines De La Cuetara leads us off from Paris. Then, ABC's Ian Pannell is in Kyiv reporting on Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy's plans to suspend two of his top law enforcement officials. And ABC's Sony Salzman explains what you need to know about monkeypox. http://apple.co/2HPocUL

WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW TODAY

• The Senate Committee on Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs holds a hearing addressing weapons of mass destruction and health security threats at 10 a.m. ET.
• The Senate Committee on Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs holds a hearing to examine the opportunities and challenges in addressing homelessness at 2:30 p.m. ET.
• Polls for primary elections open in Maryland at 7 a.m. ET and close at 8 p.m. ET
• White House press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre will brief at 3 p.m. ET.

Download the ABC News app and select "The Note" as an item of interest to receive the day's sharpest political analysis.

The Note is a daily ABC News feature that highlights the day's top stories in politics. Please check back Wednesday for the latest.