What to watch for in the 3rd GOP presidential primary debate

Five candidates will square off in Florida Wednesday night in the third debate of the Republican presidential primary, a day after voter support for abortion access -- even in red states -- emerged as key election obstacle for the GOP, with the White House hopefuls supporting strict state limits and even a federal ban.

Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley, entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy, former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie and South Carolina Sen. Tim Scott will mix it up on stage in Miami beginning at 8 p.m. ET

Former President Donald Trump is choosing not to attend and will instead host a counterprogramming rally nearby.

The debate stage is smaller than the second debate by two people: North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum did not qualify for the event, and former Vice President Mike Pence since suspended his presidential campaign.

Here's what to watch for Wednesday night.

How do candidates respond to election night results?

Republicans suffered key losses in races on Tuesday, including in Kentucky's gubernatorial race, an abortion referendum in Ohio and an attempt to win unified control of the state government in Virginia.

In those races, Kentucky's Democratic Gov. Andy Beshear was projected to win a second term, the abortion referendum could ultimately lose by double digits, and Democrats were on pace to hold at least one chamber of the state legislature in Virginia.

Republicans have repeatedly underperformed since Biden took office, including in the 2022 midterms and 2023 special elections, despite the president's poor approval ratings.

Should the GOP candidates be asked about the trend, further fault lines could emerge over issues like abortion and Trump's role in the party.

Will the debate even matter?

The two previous debates haven't been short of fireworks, and they've produced both bumps and slides in the polls for certain candidates.

But they haven't changed the underlying dynamic of the primary thus far: It's Trump's party, and the rest of the candidates are just living in it.

Trump retains an over 40-point lead in 538's national polling average, and his edge in early state polling is also yawning, while not quite as large.

His stubbornly large advantage comes in spite of not attending the two previous debates and an ongoing heap of legal trouble.

Still, the debates have offered candidates a chance to duke it out for second place and emerge as the Trump alternative for a swath of the party -- especially donors -- eager to move on from the former president.

Haley has seen her polling surge on the backs of two strong debate performances, including nearing or surpassing DeSantis in some surveys, sparking a battle between the two over who would be better equipped to take Trump on if the primary were to evolve into a one-on-one matchup.

DeSantis did recently clinch a key endorsement from Iowa Gov. Kim Reynolds, though it remains to be seen if it will be enough to stop a polling skid in the state.

How much higher can Haley go?

Haley has gotten two consecutive bounces from the previous two debates. Now, she's looking for more.

With Haley and DeSantis running neck-and-neck, Wednesday's debate offers Haley a chance to put the Floridian in her rearview mirror -- or let DeSantis regain his footing after winning over Reynolds.

DeSantis has argued that he's more electable than Haley and that someone viewed as a more moderate candidate can't win over the GOP grassroots. Haley, meanwhile, points to DeSantis' monthslong slide in the polls to suggest he doesn't have what it takes to emerge as the Republican nominee.

The outcome of the Haley-DeSantis dynamic is a crucial one as the anti-Trump wing of the Republican Party scrambles to see who could give the former president a run for his money -- something that hasn't yet happened despite all of his headwinds.

Does the smaller stage change anything?

While the debates thus far have helped move some of the candidates' polling numbers, they have mostly been characterized by shouting matches and moderators struggling to restore anything remotely resembling comity on stage.

On the one hand, the smaller stage could offer candidates more time to answer questions, delve deeper into policy and limit the chance for crosstalk. Yet on the other hand, candidates may be more compelled to force their way into the spotlight as the primary calendar narrows, particularly as DeSantis and Haley duke it out and candidates like Ramaswamy, Christie and Scott look to have a breakout moment.

The debates have produced memorable clashes already, with Haley going after Ramaswamy as inexperienced on foreign policy and Christie going after Trump in absentia, barbs that had varying levels of effectiveness.