Winners and Losers of the New Hampshire Primary

Jan. 10, 2012 -- intro:

New Hampshire, a small New England state with roughly the same population as the city of San Antonio, has been a momentum-setter in presidential elections for nearly a century.

While Iowa has held its caucus before New Hampshire's primary every year since 1972, Iowa's caucus results are non-binding and delegates are not officially awarded until June, making New Hampshire the first state to award delegates in each presidential nominating cycle.

Since its first-in-the-nation status became official more than 30 years ago, only two Republican presidential candidates have lost in New Hampshire and gone on to win the nomination.

With Mitt Romney taking a narrow win in Iowa and holding a 24-point lead in the latest New Hampshire poll, history would tell you he has this GOP nomination under wraps. But while anything is possible in the state whose motto is Live Free or Die, Romney's rivals will have a steep climb to overtake him if he wins there today.

In the past 10 presidential elections, only two candidates -- Democrat or Republican -- have ever lost in both Iowa and New Hampshire and still secured their party's nomination.

Here's a look back at the White House dreams that have perished and those that have prevailed in the Granite State since New Hampshire, by law, became the first-in-the-nation primary state:

quicklist: 1title: 2008: Hillary Clinton and John McCaintext:

After little-known Illinois Sen. Barack Obama triumphed at the Iowa caucus, many pundits were already writing obituaries for the previously presumptive nominee Hillary Clinton, who finished third in Iowa.

But a last-minute push through New Hampshire propelled Clinton to a narrow victory in the Granite State and began trade-off wins that went on to dominate the Obama-Clinton primary rivalry.

As it turned out, Obama went on to become just the third Democrat in 30 years to go on to win the party's presidential nomination despite losing in the New Hampshire primary.

On the other side of the aisle, the race was not quite as volatile. The eventual GOP nominee, John McCain, surged to first place in New Hampshire after finishing a dismal fourth in Iowa. Despite owning a home there and serving as governor of neighboring Massachusetts, Mitt Romney came in second in the Granite State in 2008.

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quicklist:2title: 2004: John Kerrytext:

The 2004 election proved that momentum is key in early presidential nominating contests. After polling a distant third leading up to the Iowa caucuses, Kerry surged to first there. The Massachusetts senator rode his Iowa momentum to a victory in New Hampshire.

While polls predicted a close race, Kerry bested former Vermont Gov. Howard Dean by 12 percentage points and went on to win the Democratic Party's nomination. Kerry was defeated by incumbent president George W. Bush in the general election.

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quicklist: 3title: 2000: Al Gore and John McCaintext:

George W. Bush is one of only two Republican presidential candidates in the past 30 years who has lost the New Hampshire Primary and went on to win the GOP nomination. Bush lost to Sen. John McCain in the first-in-the-nation primary by nearly 20 percentage points.

Fiercely negative ads in South Carolina halted McCain's New Hampshire momentum and Bush eventually secured the GOP nomination.