Best bets on Week 17 NFL games
— -- It's Week 17 of the NFL season, and ESPN Chalk's Vegas experts have you covered with comprehensive betting previews for all of Sunday's action included together in one handy article.
Dave Tuley
Last week: 2-5 against the spread with best bets (marked with an *); 4-1 with over/under best bets; 6-2 on ATS leans; 0-1 on O/U leans.
Season to date: 48-44-3 (52.2 percent) on ATS best bets; 43-26 (62.3 percent) with O/U best bets; 71-66-2 on ATS leans; 10-15 on O/U leans.
Mike Clay
Last week: 8-7 on ATS best bets; 5-9-1 with O/U best bets.
Season: 86-80-6 (51.8 percent) on ATS best bets; 81-77-2 (51.9 percent) on O/U best bets; 1-0 on ATS leans.
Erin Rynning
Last week: 1-1 on ATS best bets; 2-0 on O/U best bets.
Season: 13-18 (41.9 percent) on ATS best bets; 21-17 (55.3 percent) on O/U best bets; 7-3 on ATS leans; 3-4 on O/U leans.
Rufus Peabody
Last week: 1-3 on ATS best bets; 2-2 on O/U best bets, 1-0 on ATS leans, 2-1 on O/U leans.
Season: 24-35-3 (40.7 percent) on ATS best bets; 18-21 (46.2 percent) on O/U best bets; 13-7-2 (65 percent) on ATS leans, 7-5 on O/U leans.
Note: All odds courtesy of the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook as of Friday morning.
Matchup: Houston Texans at Tennessee Titans
Spread: Opened Tennessee -3 (-120); now Tennessee -3 (-120)
Total: Opened 40; now 40
PickCenter public consensus pick: 71 percent Houston
Public perception: The Texans clinched the AFC South last week and could be resting starters, but the public is still siding with them. (Of course, part of that is the fact Matt Cassel is starting as Tennessee QB in place of the injured Marcus Mariota.)
Wiseguys' view: The sharps are mostly passing on this relatively meaningless game. The line has wavered just a little bit, dipping to -3 (-110) at a lot of books, but no major movement has taken place.
Dave Tuley's take: This will be a common theme in several of these Week 17 matchups as handicappers try to figure out how much starters will play for playoff teams that are not in a position to improve their seeding. The NFL Vegas Rankings that we're a part of here at Chalk have this as a borderline value play if the Texans do put forth an honest effort, (and an argument can be made that they should give Tom Savage more reps), but I'm not confident enough to make it an official best bet.
The pick: Lean to Texans 3
Rufus Peabody:
In a game that means absolutely nothing, Houston has an incentive to rest key players. I would suspect the Texans will play quarterback Tom Savage all game, since experience can only help him heading into the playoffs. Tennessee will go to battle with Cassel (yes, he's still in the NFL) under center after Mariota broke his leg. Tennessee is a run-heavy team, though, so I don't rate Mariota's loss as particularly devastating. With no motivation/rest considerations, the Massey-Peabody line is Tennessee -5.7, and Houston's lack of incentive can only help.
Pick: Tennessee -3
Massey-Peabody Line: Tennessee -5.7; Total: 38.6
Mike Clay:
Prediction: Tennessee 20, Houston 17
The pick: Houston and the under --- HOU 3, 40
Matchup: Buffalo Bills at New York Jets
Spread: Opened Buffalo -6; now Buffalo -3.5
Total: Opened 44; now 42
PickCenter public consensus pick: 72 percent Buffalo
Public perception: Both teams are eliminated, and the public seems content to back the Bills without the Ryan Brothers.
Wiseguys' view: This line opened Buffalo -6 at most books and sharps didn't jump in on either side. The adjustment in the line came Tuesday morning after it was announced Ryan Fitzpatrick would start for New York and then EJ Manuel would start for Buffalo. Some sharps grabbed the higher numbers with the Jets, but it's not as lopsided as the line move suggests.
Dave Tuley's take: I have no interest in betting either side of this game, but I do like the over. The Bills are 11-4 with the over, among the best in the league, and this should turn into a shootout-type game with no incentive for the defenses to step up. The drop in the total just makes it more appealing.
The pick: Over 42* (lean to Jets 3.5).
Rufus Peabody:
There's been a lot going on in Buffalo this week with the firing of Rex (and Rob) Ryan and Manuel getting the start at quarterback. With Tyrod Taylor behind center, I would make the line Buffalo -3.9; Manuel is only a slight downgrade, and I still have the Bills -3.6.
Pick: Pass
Massey-Peabody Line: Buffalo -3.6; Total: 42.5
Mike Clay:
Prediction: Buffalo 26, New York Jets 19
The pick: Buffalo and the over --- BUF -3.5, 42
Matchup: Baltimore Ravens at Cincinnati Bengals
Spread: Opened Cincinnati -2.5; now pick 'em
Total: Opened 41.5; now 41.5
PickCenter public consensus pick: 79 percent Baltimore
Public perception: You've probably noticed by now that the NFL schedules most of the games with no playoff implications in the early 1 p.m. ET window. The public is again on the team that's had the better season as the Ravens (8-7) visit the Bengals (5-9-1).
Wiseguys' view: Sharps avoided this game at first, but have joined the public on the Ravens a little bit, and we're probably going to see Baltimore end up as a short favorite.
Dave Tuley's take: Once again, it's a coin flip on the spread result, but I'll continue to ride the overs in these types of games as they helped me go 4-1 on over/unders last week (my only loss was on an under) and better than 60 percent on the season. The Ravens are only 7-8 with the over, but they've gone over in their past four games as Joe Flacco has opened up the offense (and look for Steve Smith Sr. to go out with a big game).
The pick: Over 41.5* (lean to Ravens pick 'em).
Rufus Peabody:
A banged-up Cincinnati team hosts Baltimore in a meeting of two teams that are playing for pride. My numbers don't account for all of Cincy's injuries, but I'm still going to stick with the model and take Cincinnati -2.5. I also like the over in this game as neither defense is good enough, nor is either offense bad enough, to justify a total of only 41. Baltimore has quietly been one of the most pass-happy teams in football this year.
Pick: Cincinnati -1, Over 41.5
Massey-Peabody Line: Cincinnati -4.1; Total: 45.1
Mike Clay:
Prediction: Cincinnati 22, Baltimore 21
The pick: Baltimore and the over --- BAL 1, 41.5
Matchup: Jacksonville Jaguars at Indianapolis Colts
Spread: Opened Indianapolis -6; now Indianapolis -4.5
Total: Opened 47; now 47
PickCenter public consensus pick: 69 percent Indianapolis
Public perception: Once again, the public is siding with the team that's had the better season with the Colts (7-9) hosting the Jaguars (3-12).
Wiseguys' view: Despite the majority of money coming in on favored Indianapolis (and the NFL Vegas Rankings actually agree with the move on the favorite), the books here in Vegas (and offshore) have dropped this line due to sharp action on Jacksonville.
Dave Tuley's take: This total is a little too high for me to jump on another over, but I'm going to make a case for the Jaguars. Despite playing out the string under an interim coach, the Jaguars did step up last week and beat the Titans (and it was a done deal even before Mariota was knocked out of the game). I expect a similar effort to keep in this game as they try for a season sweep of the Colts.
The pick: Jaguars 4.5*
Rufus Peabody:
Indianapolis was knocked out of the playoff picture with its loss to Oakland last week. The Colts come on strong during the latter part of the season and rank as an above-average team. Despite Jacksonville's impressive showing last week, the Jaguars are still a bad team. I lean Indianapolis here.
Pick: Lean Indianapolis -4.5
Massey-Peabody Line: Indianapolis -6.8; Total: 48.2
Mike Clay:
Prediction: Indianapolis 28, Jacksonville 21
The pick: Indianapolis and the over --- IND -4.5, 47
Matchup: Dallas Cowboys at Philadelphia Eagles
Spread: Opened Philadelphia -6.5; now Philadelphia -4.5
Total: Opened 42.5; now 43
PickCenter public consensus pick: 68 percent Dallas
Public perception: I feel like I'm repeating myself: The public is siding with the better team even though the Cowboys can't improve on their No. 1 seeding in the NFC playoffs (though the Cowboys beat the Lions on Monday night despite having less incentive).
Wiseguys' view: The sharps have joined the public in betting down this line, but again, it probably won't be one of the biggest decisions on the day for the sports books.
Dave Tuley's take: As of this writing, there are still conflicting reports about how much each of Dallas' QBs -- Dak Prescott, Mark Sanchez and Tony Romo -- will play, but I believe we can still ride the over here. The Cowboys should also be resting some defensive players as they'll need to be healthy if Dallas is to make a deep playoff run.
The pick: Over 43* (lean to Philadelphia -4.5).
Rufus Peabody:
This is a game where I can basically throw out my numbers because Dallas has already secured home-field advantage and has nothing to play for. Dallas may want to play their starters for a significant chunk of time, since they do get next week off. Due to all this uncertainty, I'll pass.
Pick: Pass
Massey-Peabody Line: Dallas -1.5; Total: 44.4
Erin Rynning:
The Eagles garnered a sweet win last Thursday when they took down their division rivals, the Giants, to end a five-game skid. They'd love to continue that momentum with a win against the Cowboys in this matchup with the new regime continuing to play hard under a rookie head coach and quarterback. The offense welcomed the return of Lane Johnson on the line last week; he made a notable difference and points shouldn't be an issue for the Eagles. Meanwhile, it's difficult to envision the Cowboys playing anything close to full throttle on Sunday. They flexed their muscle in their Monday night romp against the Lions and now full focus shifts to the playoffs and health.
Play: Philadelphia
Mike Clay:
Prediction: Dallas 24, Philadelphia 22
The pick: Dallas and the over --- DAL 3.5, 43
Matchup: New England Patriots at Miami Dolphins
Spread: Opened New England -7.5; now New England -9.5
Total: Opened 44.5; now 45
PickCenter public consensus pick: 58 percent New England
Public perception: Both teams are in the playoffs, but the Patriots actually have more to play for as a victory clinches the AFC's No. 1 seed. The Patriots have also clinched the best betting record in the league, with a 12-3 ATS record so far.
Wiseguys' view: Miami is no slouch at 8-5-2 ATS with three straight covers down the stretch, but sharps also initially sided with New England as the Dolphins are still going with Matt Moore. Sharps are more split now.
Dave Tuley's take: I won't be involved in this game. If I thought the Dolphins had any reason to put up a real fight, I would take the points, but it looks more likely that they'll be the team resting more starters to get ready to play in the wild-card round while the Patriots want to assure the No. 1 seed and get their rest next week.
The pick: Pass (lean to New England -9.5)
Rufus Peabody:
Miami has locked up a playoff berth but can move into the No. 5 seed with a win and a Kansas City loss this week. Playing Houston instead of Pittsburgh would be much more palatable for the Fins, but it's a long shot. How will Miami prioritize getting guys healthy and rested versus playing this like a normal game? I'm not sure.
Pick: Pass
Massey-Peabody Line: New England -11.0; Total: 43.7
Mike Clay:
Prediction: New England 30, Miami 22
The pick: Miami and the over --- MIA 9.5, 45
Matchup: Chicago Bears at Minnesota Vikings
Spread: Opened Minnesota -5.5; now Minnesota 6.5
Total: Opened 41; now 42.5
PickCenter public consensus pick: 51 percent Minnesota
Public perception: The public is split on this game instead of going with Minnesota, who had the better season. However, after being the last undefeated team at 5-0, the Vikings have gone 2-8 since and aren't even alive for a wild-card spot. Besides, the Bears had actually covered five games in a row before their 41-21 loss to the Redskins last week.
Wiseguys' view: The early sharp money came in on the Bears as the line was bet down to Minnesota -5 at most books, but now they've been backing the Vikings, moving it up to 6.5 and potentially to a full touchdown.
Dave Tuley's take: As the line continues to climb, I'm looking to fade the move with the Bears. They've played better the second half of the season, and let's not forget that they beat the Vikings 20-10 back on Halloween. Despite being on the road, there's no reason to think the Bears won't be able to keep this game close. I would lean to the over in another meaningless game, but I'm not sure how much the Vikings will contribute to the total.
The pick: Bears 6.5*
Rufus Peabody:
Forget the result last week; Minnesota actually played only five points worse "fundamentally" than the Packers, despite losing by 12. Chicago is reeling with injuries, and that has shown on the defensive side the past two games. Chicago gave up 5.9 yards per rush to Washington running backs last week and allowed a play success rate of 55.6 percent. Over the past two weeks, the Bears have allowed six pass plays and five rushes of 25 or more yards. Minnesota does not have an explosive offense, but perhaps the Chicago defense is the elixir its running game needs.
Lean: Minnesota -5.5
Massey-Peabody Line: Minnesota -8.1; Total: 41.6
Mike Clay:
Prediction: Minnesota 20, Chicago 16
The pick: Chicago and the under --- CHI 5.5, 41
Matchup: Carolina Panthers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Spread: Opened Tampa Bay -4; now Tampa Bay -4.5
Total: Opened 46.5; now 46.5
PickCenter public consensus pick: 57 percent Carolina
Public perception: I know Bill Parcells famously said "You are what your record says you are," but most people seem to think the Panthers are better than their 6-9 record as they're backing them here against the Buccaneers (8-7).
Wiseguys' view: Early sharps jumped on Tampa Bay as this line went to -6.5 on Monday, but now it's settled back down to 4.5, so there are sharps on both sides.
Dave Tuley's take: Both teams haven continued to play hard down the stretch, so I'm actually considering the under and a game similar to the Buccaneers' 17-14 victory in the first meeting of the season (even though Carolina was without Cam Newton in that one). However, I feel the better play is the Panthers plus the points as they try to end their disappointing season on a winning note. The NFL Vegas Rankings have this line being no more than a field goal, so there's some value there (and, again, a repeat of the earlier meeting works for me).
The pick: Panthers 4.5* (lean to under 46.5*)
Rufus Peabody:
This line makes no sense to me. The market has overrated Tampa Bay for the latter part of the season (since the Bucs started winning games), but it's as if the betting public thinks that Carolina is not going to try. The Panthers are eliminated, but they were (virtually) eliminated a few weeks ago but still beat the Redskins on Monday Night Football. Carolina is a better team than Tampa Bay, and even after accounting for home-field advantage, Carolina should be a slight favorite.
Pick: Carolina 5.5, Lean under 46
Massey-Peabody Line: Carolina -1.3; Total: 43.9
Erin Rynning:
Yes, qualifying for the playoffs would be nothing short of a miracle for the Buccaneers at this point, but this is still a building team on firmer footing than the opposition. Under first-year head coach Dirk Koetter, the Buccaneers have taken a firm step forward in the win/loss department after their six-win season a year ago. While they're coming off two bitter losses ousting them from the playoffs, this is still a club that won five consecutive games before that. Meanwhile, last year's Super Bowl runner-up is clearly playing out the string. The Panthers were a no-show last week in losing to the Falcons. They'll be without Luke Kuechly again on defense, and key players are dealing with various ailments all over the offense.
Play: Tampa Bay
Mike Clay:
Prediction: Tampa Bay 24, Carolina 21
The pick: Carolina and the under --- CAR 5.5, 46.5
Matchup: Cleveland Browns at Pittsburgh Steelers
Spread: Opened Pittsburgh -10; now Pittsburgh -6
Total: Opened 44.5; now 43
PickCenter public consensus pick: 69 percent Pittsburgh
Public perception: We're back to the public backing the better team despite the Steelers (10-5) not having anything to play for and, in fact, announcing they're resting their Big 3: QB Ben Roethlisberger, RB Le'Veon Bell and WR Antonio Brown.
Wiseguys' view: The "line move" from Pittsburgh -10 down to -6 is more due to the Steelers resting their stars as opposed to any money flowing in on Cleveland (though sharps have been backing the Browns all season to their detriment, as they're a league-worst 3-12 ATS).
Dave Tuley's take: With so many stars out for the Steelers, I'm a little surprised this line hasn't gone lower; however, I suppose most bettors would think the Pittsburgh backups are more than a field goal better than the Browns, so there's only so low the oddsmakers can go. I'll take the Browns with the points. As we saw last week in getting their first victory of the season, they're still trying to win, and they'll come in with confidence off their 20-17 victory over the Chargers. Some conspiracy theorists will say: "They won't win again and risk losing the No. 1 pick," but that could have been said last week, and it's pretty apparent the players are more concerned about their future jobs than if the organization gets the No. 1 pick.
The pick: Browns 6*
Rufus Peabody:
The Steelers have the No. 3 in the AFC wrapped up, so with nothing to play for and with the risk of injuring key players, I'd expect Pittsburgh to rest a lot of starters. In fact, if I were Mike Tomlin, I would try to give all my starters the day off. I would make Pittsburgh a 15-point favorite if this were a normal game, but it isn't, so I'll pass.
Pick: Pass
Massey-Peabody Line: Pittsburgh -14.8; Total: 45.1
Mike Clay:
Prediction: Pittsburgh 26, Cleveland 15
The pick: Pittsburgh and the under --- PIT -6, 43.5
Matchup: New Orleans Saints at Atlanta Falcons
Spread: Opened Atlanta -6.5; now Atlanta -7 (-120)
Total: Opened 55.5; now 56.5
PickCenter public consensus pick: 59 percent Atlanta
Public perception: The public is on the Falcons as the better team this season, plus they can clinch the NFC No. 2 seed (and a bye) with a victory.
Wiseguys' view: The sharps snatched up the Falcons laying under a touchdown, but it's more split now. However, Atlanta also will be another very popular teaser play, along with Washington.
Dave Tuley's take: The Falcons, who I've been high on all year as my Super Bowl value bet (and who've already cashed for me on their over 7 wins and 10-1 odds to win NFC South), have been doing it without Julio Jones, so I'm not going to fade them now that's he's getting worked back into the lineup. I expect this to be similar to the first meeting, a 45-32 Atlanta win, but I just can't go over the inflated total of 56.5.
The pick: Pass (lean to Falcons -7).
Rufus Peabody:
Atlanta still has something to play for -- the two-seed and a first-round bye -- so I can trust my numbers on this game. We all know that Atlanta has the best offense in football, but New Orleans is less than a point worse on offense (and ranks third according to Massey-Peabody). The Saints' offense has had a play success mark of more than 50 percent in 10 of their past 11 games and put up a season-high 70.8 percent mark last week against Tampa. Atlanta and New Orleans are only 2.2 points apart in the Massey-Peabody ratings, and home-field advantage is a little smaller than normal since this is an intradivision game.
Pick: New Orleans 7
Massey-Peabody Line: New Orleans 4.1; Total: 57.0
Mike Clay:
Prediction: Atlanta 36, New Orleans 29
The pick: Atlanta and the over --- ATL -7, 56.5
Matchup: New York Giants at Washington Redskins
Spread: Opened Washington -8; now Washington -7.5
Total: Opened 44; now 44.5
PickCenter public consensus pick: 62 percent New York
Public perception: The Redskins need to win this game to secure a wild-card berth (as long as the Lions-Packers game doesn't end in a tie), but the public is siding with the Giants, who have already clinched the other NFC wild-card spot.
Wiseguys' view: Sharps are split on this game, grabbing the Giants 8 at the books that opened there, betting the line down to 7 and then those that prefer the Redskins laying the -7. The line has mostly settled at 7.5. The Redskins, with their playoff scenario, will be a popular teaser play for sharps and squares alike.
Dave Tuley's take: Getting more than a touchdown is tempting with the Giants as this line is inflated (NFL Vegas Rankings has the true line around Washington -3), but the Giants don't have any incentive as they're locked into the No. 5 seed and could pull their starters at any time. It's also a tough call on the over/under as the Redskins have the second-best over record at 12-3, while the Giants are the best under team at 11-4.
The pick: Pass (lean to Giants 7.5).
Rufus Peabody:
If this was a "normal" game, I would make the Redskins a 2.2-point favorite. This is not a normal game, however, since New York has locked up the No. 5 seed in the NFC playoffs and has no incentive to try to win the game (aside from knocking a division rival out of the playoffs). I don't know if or how much Ben McAdoo plans on using Eli Manning and other key players, so I'm going to pass.
Pick: Pass
Massey-Peabody Line: Washington -2.2; Total: 46.7
Mike Clay:
Prediction: Washington 25, New York Giants 19
The pick: New York Giants and the over --- NYG 7, 44.5
Matchup: Arizona Cardinals at Los Angeles Rams
Spread: Opened Arizona -6.5; now Arizona -6.5
Total: Opened 41; now 40.5
PickCenter public consensus pick: 60 percent Arizona
Public perception: The public is again siding with the team with the better record as the Cardinals (6-8-1) visit the Rams (4-11).
Wiseguys' view: Sharps are more split as this line has wavered between Arizona -6 and -6.5, taking the better number on the side they like.
Dave Tuley's take: The Rams beat the Cardinals 17-13 back in Week 4, and I would normally love to grab the previous meeting's winner getting points at home. However, I can't see the Rams slowing down the Cardinals' attack this time around. The Rams have allowed a whopping 163 points in their past five games (an average of 32.6 points per game), so this leads me back to another over. The Cardinals are only 8-7 with the over on the season, but have gone over in their past six games. The Rams' offense doesn't often help much, but they are 2-1 with the over in their past three games thanks to their porous defense. Besides, we have a relatively low total to go over here.
The pick: Over 40.5* (lean to Cardinals -6.5).
Rufus Peabody:
Arizona may be 6-8-1 and out of the playoffs, but they are still one of the game's more dangerous teams. Last week's game was evidence of that. They should win on the road against the woeful Rams, though the market has this game priced correctly.
Pick: Pass
Massey-Peabody Line: Arizona -5.8; Total: 40.9
Mike Clay:
Prediction: Arizona 23, Los Angeles 16
The pick: Arizona and the under --- ARI -6, 40.5
Matchup: Oakland Raiders at Denver Broncos
Spread: Opened Denver -3.5; now Denver -1.5
Total: Opened 42; now 40.5
PickCenter public consensus pick: 62 percent Denver
Public perception: The public is on the Broncos, which isn't surprising with the Raiders losing Derek Carr, even though they could clinch the AFC's No. 2 seed with a victory (and could steal the No. 1 seed if the Patriots lose earlier to the Dolphins).
Wiseguys' view: The sharps actually sided with the Raiders when this line was first posted at 3.5 at the Westgate and other shops and 3 elsewhere. It's more split with the line well under a field goal.
Dave Tuley's take: I actually backed McGloin when filling in for the Raiders in the past (2013 season), but he faces a tough task against the Broncos' pass rush and defensive backs. If he was still getting more than a field goal, I might be willing to make the play, but now the value has flipped to the Denver side.
The pick: Lean to Broncos -1.5.
Rufus Peabody:
Denver plans to start Trevor Siemian in a meaningless season finale, but coach Gary Kubiak has stated that Paxton Lynch could see time as well. Lynch is a downgrade, but even if you factor that in (which the Massey-Peabody number isn't doing, since Siemian is starting), Denver is a great value bet. Oakland relies heavily on its offense, and if McGloin can't perform at a level close to what Carr did, the Raiders will be in trouble, as Massey-Peabody rates their defense 23rd best in the NFL.
Pick: Denver -1
Massey-Peabody Line: Denver -6.0; Total: 40.6
Mike Clay:
Prediction: Oakland 20.4, Denver 20.3
The pick: Oakland and the over --- OAK 1.5, 40
Matchup: Kansas City Chiefs at San Diego Chargers
Spread: Opened Kansas City -4; now Kansas City -6
Total: Opened 45; now 44.5
PickCenter public consensus pick: 75 percent Kansas City
Public perception: The public is on the Chiefs, who have a shot to win the AFC West and get the AFC's No. 2 seed (and a bye week) if they win and the Raiders lose (and Oakland has to rely on backup QB Matt McGloin on the road in Denver). So, there's going to be a lot of scoreboard watching.
Wiseguys' view: The sharps joined the public in grabbing the Chiefs at lower numbers, but the lines seems to have peaked at -6 (with some books getting buyback on the Chargers and dipping back to -5.5).
Dave Tuley's take: Fading the Chiefs didn't work last week as they romped past the Broncos 33-10 and covered as 3.5-point favorites, but I'm going to give it another try despite KC having more incentive here. The Chargers have obviously had a disappointing season and probably no more embarrassing moment than losing 20-17 to the previously winless Browns. I believe they'll be motivated to bounce back from that performance as well as trying to make amends for their Week 1 loss to the Chiefs, where they had them on the ropes but lost 27-23 (though the Chargers still covered). I don't expect the Chiefs to pull away this time but instead squeak out another close win.
The pick: Chargers 6*
Rufus Peabody:
The Chargers have lost their past four including an embarrassing loss to the then-winless Browns, but San Diego is a lot better than its 5-10 record. Only one of the Chargers' 10 losses is by more than one score. In fact, the Chargers have only been outscored by three points all season. San Diego's recent struggles have dropped it to 20th in this week's Massey-Peabody ratings (the Chiefs rank seventh), but the difference between these teams in only 3.5 points on a neutral field. Add in home-field advantage, and the Chargers are an excellent value bet.
Pick: San Diego 5.5
Massey-Peabody Line: San Diego 1.3; Total: 43.3
Mike Clay:
Prediction: San Diego 22, Kansas City 21
The pick: San Diego and the under --- SD 6, 44.5
Spread: Opened Seattle -9; now Seattle -9.5
Total: Opened 43; now 43
PickCenter public consensus pick: 75 percent Seattle
Public perception: The public is on the Seahawks as they could still get the NFC No. 2 seed with a victory and a loss by the Falcons (whose game has been moved to the same time slot, so there won't be anything settled before kickoff).
Wiseguys' view: With the line so high, the sharps have mostly stayed away from this game.
Dave Tuley's take: I would normally be tempted to take the home underdog here, especially if the line went to double digits, but the Seahawks' 37-18 dominant win in the first meeting scares me off. Besides, even if the Seahawks don't get the No. 2 seed, it's pretty clear they want to be playing better heading into the playoffs.
The pick: Pass (lean to 49ers 9.5).
Rufus Peabody:
Seattle has really struggled to run the ball over the past few weeks with Los Angeles and Arizona holding the Seahawks' running backs to 1.5 and 2.4 yards per carry, respectively. If Seattle wants to make noise in the playoffs, it will need more out of its run game. At minimum, this week should help build some confidence.
Pick: Pass
Massey-Peabody Line: Seattle -8.1; Total: 41.9
Mike Clay:
Prediction: Seattle 27, San Francisco 18
The pick: San Francisco and the over --- SF 9.5, 43
Erin Rynning:
The Seahawks will look to rebound off their loss last week to the Cardinals. They've bounced back off of their previous two losses, demolishing the competition by a combined score of 64-10. With their up-and-down nature, Pete Carroll will look to build momentum for the playoffs, and with a first-round bye still in play with a win, there's sufficient motivation for Seattle. Of course, the 49ers remain in shambles, although they mustered a win last week against the equally inept Rams. The Seahawks' defense matches up well with the limited passing game of the 49ers and will be able to focus on stopping Colin Kaepernick and the run game.
Play: Seattle
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