Gonzaga for real? Kentucky a flop? True or false?

ByMYRON MEDCALF
February 7, 2017, 10:31 AM

— -- Remember when we knew everything? Remember that day?

When so many thought Gonzaga would satisfy the naysayers with a surprising loss and Kentucky would skate to the SEC title and the ACC actually made sense and we had finally started to believe in Maryland again and West Virginia/Virginia seemed destined for a great postseason?

It lasted for a day.

In college basketball, you get only 24 hours -- maybe -- to enjoy your assumptions. Because another chaotic Saturday -- six top-10 teams lost on the same day, just the fifth occurrence in the history of the Associated Press poll -- ruined those ideas.

Now, we enter a critical week with nothing more than questions. Because we all know we don't have any answers right now. So, now more than ever, it's time to decide what is true and what is false in this college basketball season.

John Calipari alone can fix the Kentucky Wildcats and lead them to the Final Four: FALSE

In December, Kentucky guard Dominique Hawkins spoke to the media in Lexington about his team's matchup against UCLA. As Hawkins responded to questions, De'Aaron Fox snuck behind the veteran and put bunny ears over his head before he laughed and darted to the locker room. Behind the brood of reporters, Malik Monk walked to his spot in the pregame media scrum with his jersey dangling from his neck like a Superman cape.

"Was that a Superman cape?" he was asked. "Nah," he said, "just something I do." The point of all this? John Calipari is dealing with freshmen. Typical, free-spirited freshmen. Freshmen who want to win big and have fun during their brief college tenures. They're not Tyus Jones and the 30-year-old teenagers who led Duke to the national title two years ago, or the Rhodes Scholar-like Karl-Anthony Towns, perhaps the most mature one-and-done prospect Calipari has ever coached.

Those challenges with maturity have impacted a squad that has lost three of four and should have lost to Georgia at home last week. The Wildcats are just balling right now. Not attacking. Not fighting. Just playing. In February.

They do not appear to understand the stakes or their potential. When you're a young team facing adversity and the guys you're asking to save you are just as young as you are, you can hit a wall when you go to a place like Gainesville, Florida -- where Kentucky suffered a 22-point loss to the Gators on Saturday -- and fail to match your opponent's aggressiveness.

Those smirking Kentucky players on the bench toward the end of Saturday's blowout loss? Kids being kids. They're allowed to smile and laugh. That's fine. But former Kentucky stars like Towns, Devin Booker and Tyler Ulis would have challenged them to a fight in the locker room had they been on that bench and witnessed their teammates joking in a monsoon.

Can Calipari fix this and guide Kentucky to the Final Four? Yes. Yes, he can. Will he? That's the quandary. He can pep talk this team like Ray Lewis in some unfinished garage every day. He can tell them about the Kentucky pride. He can demand more. But it's February. He has done all of those things for the past three months. Yet, here we are.

We understand the Wildcats' limitations. The stalled offense whenever Monk goes cold or silent (his team shoots 37.9 percent from the 3-point line when he's on the floor and 28.6 percent when he's not, per hooplens.com). The spotty defense (SEC opponents are connecting on 48.9 percent of their shots from inside the arc against the Wildcats). The surrendered leads.

This is still a Kentucky team with two lottery picks. Still a Kentucky team with a top-10 offense. Still a squad with the talent to battle any opponent and reach the Final Four.

Calipari, however, can't make young players want more for themselves. He can't change the individual makeup of athletes who continue to wrestle with their basketball identities. That's up to Monk and his teammates. They're running out of time.

Gonzaga is a fraud if it loses a game in West Coast Conference play: FALSE

Only by the na?ve haters.

Sure, call the Bulldogs frauds if they lose to the Gaels this weekend on the road or suffer a loss against another WCC foe before the NCAA tournament. Fine. But make sure you call the Kentucky team that's freefalling in the SEC a fraud. Add the Arizona team that just lost by a million at Oregon to that list. The Kansas and Baylor teams that just suffered home losses to unranked teams, too.

If Saturday's outcome -- or another, albeit unlikely, loss in the WCC -- changes your view of Gonzaga, then you never thought much of Mark Few's squad. And that's fine.

It's fine you're wrong.

Gonzaga could lose Saturday to Saint Mary's, No. 14 on KenPom.com, and it wouldn't change its Final Four potential. Good teams lose to opposing good teams on the road. It could happen. Good teams lose to average teams. That happened to multiple top-10 teams over the weekend. ESPN's BPI gives Gonzaga a 34.7 percent chance to win out the rest of the way. The team's 24-0 start includes wins over Florida, Arizona, Iowa State and the Tennessee team that beat Kentucky two weeks ago.

That means something.

After defeating Saint Mary's by 23 points in the first matchup, the Bulldogs don't have anything to prove on Saturday. They're good and legit, win or lose.

Kansas will regroup, overcome the drama and win the Big 12 for the 13th year in a row: TRUE

Had Kansas lost to Iowa State on Saturday in overtime without the drama that has punctuated its season swirling above Allen Fieldhouse, most would have simply credited the Cyclones with a rare win over a great team.

But it's only natural to wonder if off-court distractions contributed to Saturday's loss. Will the problems persist if Kansas continues to face non-basketball challenges? Will the drama lead to the end of the Big 12 title streak?

No. That's not happening.

Kansas will still win its 13th consecutive Big 12 title and tie the record established by UCLA in the 1960s and 1970s. Why? Because Wooden Award contender Frank Mason and Devonte' Graham won't allow another outcome. Mason and Graham anchor the nation's best backcourt, and they're also two of the country's most consistent leaders. Two guys who were always overlooked in high school and never appreciated. They value what they have and won't allow their teammates to take anything for granted. Without Mason and Graham, Kansas would tumble. With them, Bill Self has two conduits for creating the rhythm and pace the Jayhawks will embrace in the final weeks of the season. Plus, their toughest tests -- West Virginia (home) Feb. 13, Baylor (road) Feb. 18 -- will come against teams that, entering the week, trailed them in the standings.

The Jayhawks will play three of their final seven Big 12 games at home and the rest on the road. Not an easy path to the Big 12 title. But far too early to expect calamity from a program that has managed to figure things out in the league race for more than a decade.

Duke will beat North Carolina on Thursday and change the national narrative: TRUE

Yes. For now.

?But don't get attached to that.

The Tar Heels have won nine of their past 10 games after suffering a loss at Georgia Tech in their ACC opener. They're averaging 1.16 points per possession against ACC opponents, No. 1 in the league. Plus, they boast a convincing double-digit win over Florida State. And they lead the nation in offensive rebounding rate, per KenPom.com.

When Duke, winner of three in a row, beats the powerhouse program and its chief rival, the buzz about its postseason potential and ACC status will grow, especially with Mike Krzyzewski back on the sideline. The Blue Devils would own a win over the ACC's best, a good Notre Dame team and a struggling Pitt squad in a four-game stretch.

They're back!

Slow. Down.

Daunting road tests against Virginia, Syracuse, Miami and North Carolina, along with a home game against Florida State, await Duke. That's the kind of conflagrating slate that could restart the turbulence, despite what happens Thursday.

Still, a victory over North Carolina would seem like a reset on this inconsistent season. If Duke can beat UNC, then it's clearly capable of handling any opponent in the ACC or the NCAA tournament.

Oregon is undeniably the Pac-12's most dangerous national title contender: FALSE

We're getting there. Not there yet. But we're close.

Here's the thing about the Arizona win on Saturday: The Ducks beat a Wildcats team that entered the matchup on a 15-game winning streak. The Wildcats boast a top-25 defense, and Oregon dropped 85 points on that squad. If you had eliminated seven of the 3-pointers -- the Ducks connected on a ridiculous 16 of 25 shots from beyond the arc -- Oregon would have finished the game closer to its season average of 37.6 percent from 3 and still would have won by six points.

The Ducks have lost two games since Dillon Brooks returned from a foot injury on Nov. 21. Two. And they're ranked 12th in adjusted defensive efficiency on KenPom.com. On offense, five Oregon players have made at least 48 percent of their shots inside the arc.

A 2-0 mark on their trip to Los Angeles this week -- they'll face UCLA on Thursday and USC on Saturday -- would elevate the Ducks in the conversation about teams with Final Four talent. Sweeping the L.A. schools this season would generate the same preseason buzz Oregon enjoyed after its Elite Eight run in 2016.