Is Jahlil Okafor's potential worth a big trade?

— -- Whether or not the Philadelphia 76ers trade second-year center Jahlil Okafor to the New Orleans Pelicans, as the teams were discussing Monday according to a report from ESPN.com's Marc Stein and Marc J. Spears, the No. 3 overall pick of the 2015 NBA draft has a good chance of finding a new home soon after being squeezed out of Philadelphia's center rotation by fellow lottery picks Joel Embiid and Nerlens Noel.

As teams contemplate trading for Okafor, the first question they must answer is if he can become a useful NBA player, since that hasn't yet been the case. Okafor has rated far below replacement level by ESPN's real plus-minus (RPM). Looking at the multiyear, predictive version of RPM (the version on ESPN.com includes only 2016-17 performance), Okafor's minus-4.8 predictive RPM is the league's third-worst mark.

At the same time, RPM tends to be more variable than box score prediction. So what are the chances of a player who rates so poorly early in his career improving to the point where he can help a team?

Let's take a look at other players who lagged in RPM in their second seasons at age 21.

Now how did these players develop in future seasons? Here's how they rated by predictive RPM.

DeAndre Jordan's example shows it's certainly possible to develop dramatically after a slow start by RPM. In his prime, Jordan has been something of an RPM darling, rating as positive as plus-4.0 per 100 possessions.

Yet Jordan is an outlier among this group. While Zach LaVine's development remains to be seen (and his? possible progress might be interrupted by the torn ACL he suffered last week, as Tony Wroten's was during his third season), besides Jordan, only Spencer Hawes?even approached average performance in predictive RPM.

On average, the players in this group who have completed five full seasons improved by 1.7 points per 100 possessions in RPM from their sophomore campaign to year five. Such improvement would put Okafor at about a minus-3 RPM, similar to Jeff Green and Evan Turner this season. The Pelicans or any other team that trades for Okafor is surely hoping for more development.

Supporters will likely point to Oklahoma City Thunder center Enes Kanter as a hopeful comparison for Okafor. Kanter didn't make the above list because his RPM was actually reasonably promising in year two (minus-2.3). However, he rated more than 5 points per 100 possessions worse than the average player in both his first and third NBA seasons, so his starting point was similar to Okafor.

Kanter has indeed improved in Oklahoma City, rating about league average in RPM. That's a relatively modest goal for a No. 3 overall pick, but given where Okafor has started, becoming an average player would be a good outcome.