How the Lakers can add two stars in 2019, and what they should do now

ByBOBBY MARKS
February 6, 2018, 1:05 PM

— -- Editor's note (Feb. 6): This piece has been updated with the latest reporting on L.A.'s roster plans.

The Los Angeles Lakers are shifting their focus from the 2018 free-agent class (featuring Paul George, LeBron James and DeMarcus Cousins)?to 2019 (featuring Kawhi Leonard, Klay Thompson and Jimmy Butler),?according to a report from ESPN's Ramona Shelburne and Adrian Wojnarowski.

How does that change their approach at the trade deadline, and what does it mean for their young players and veterans? What's their best path to add multiple superstars?

Let's look at all the potential maneuvers and decisions the Lakers will face.

Under contract in 2018-19

Creating cap space is like putting together a complicated puzzle. For the Lakers to optimize room in July, the pieces will need to fit. And right now they don't.

Although the Lakers have only $49.5 million in guaranteed contracts, plus $4.5 million in non-guaranteed salary, the $66 million in combined free-agent cap holds has Los Angeles over the salary cap.

Taking a backseat in free agency

As Shelburne and Wojnarowski reported, the combination of Cousins' injury, OKC having an advantage to bring back George and James not signing with the Lakers without significant help (beyond the current roster) has L.A.'s free-agency plans stalled. After all, why would James sign with a Lakers team that couldn't compete with Golden State or the Rockets without George?

Also, it might be self-defeating to move Jordan Clarkson and Julius Randle before the deadline without knowing whether they could add a big-name free agent. Both players have proved to have value on the court and are worth more than just a salary dump.

There is a significant dropoff in the free-agent class after the top three stars. DeAndre Jordan could move across to the Lakers' locker room, but that likely would cost around $24 million annually (the number he'd be opting out of with the Clippers). Isaiah Thomas has proved to be a shell of himself as he continues to come back from offseason hip surgery. Avery Bradley and Lou Williams have appeal in the short term but not on lucrative contracts.

As the the Clippers have proved with trades of Chris Paul and Blake Griffin, the goal is not to be mediocre and stuck in neutral but have a long-term and sustainable plan to compete for a championship.

The Philadelphia option

Last summer the 76ers proved that you can stay competitive without risking future cap flexibility. The one-year signings of JJ Redick at $23 million and Amir Johnson at $11 allowed the 76ers to add two veterans, compete for a playoff spot and preserve cap space. Even with the contract extensions of Robert Covington and Joel Embiid, Philadelphia is set to have $30 million in room this summer or preserve it for the summer of 2019.

The Lakers are in a similar position, only one year early.

With the high salaries of Brook Lopez and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope set to be off the books, L.A. will have $36 million in cap space. That includes retaining Clarkson, not stretching the $36 million owed to Deng and letting the market dictate the free agency of Randle. Randle's cap hold is $12.4 million, a figure that should mirror his 2018-19 salary.

The Lakers would still have a league-best $34.5 million in room to go out and sign two veterans to one-year contracts without taking a cap hit the following season. With the league heading toward a financial crunch, free agents will be lined up outside of Magic Johnson's door looking for a big one-year deal. With a glaring need at shooting guard, either Lou Williams or Avery Bradley would be a perfect fit on a one-year, $15 million contract. The Lakers could also go pursue bringing back their own free agents in Caldwell-Pope and Lopez on similar contracts. Both players are projected to get around the $8.6 midlevel exception on the open market and could see that salary double on a one-year contract.

This is assuming George decides to stay in OKC. Of course, if the All-Star forward wants to sign with the Lakers, L.A. should use its cap space on him and then decide what to do with Clarkson, Randle and Deng from there.

The three players that were thought to be on the trade block or eventually waived -- Randle, Clarkson and Deng -- would all have value in 2018-19.

If Randle continues to play well high level next season, his new contract would present significant value for a team looking for someone who can play multiple positions and come off the bench or start. The risk comes if the Randle contract becomes untouchable in restricted free agency, something that the Trail Blazers have faced with Meyers Leonard. However, if structured right in both years and salary, Randle's deal wouldn't be a hindrance if they needed to shed his contract.

The $26 million owed to Clarkson in the next two seasons (2018-19 and 2019-20) would then be reduced to an expiring contract in the 2019-20 season. With the market set to correct itself in 2020 (when the 2016 contracts come off the books for teams), a $13.4 million salary for Clarkson would be a good placeholder.

In the case of Deng, not stretching the veteran until the 2019-20 season would give the Lakers flexibility in a lower cap hit with shorter years. If Deng was stretched this summer he would count $7.4 million towards the cap for the next five years. Wait until 2019 and Deng counts $6.3 million for only 3 seasons.

The summer of 2019

The benefit of having cap space in 2019 is that the market still has not corrected itself. The albatross contracts signed in the summer of 2016 will still count toward the cap for the majority of teams. While the number of teams with cap space is projected to increase from seven this July to 16 in 2019, the Lakers will still be in the lead with total room available. The salary cap is also projected to increase from $101 million to $108 million. Plus, factor in that Lonzo Ball, Brandon Ingram, Kyle Kuzma and Josh Hart will have another season of development under their belt, along with the Lakers having their own 2019 first-round pick.

Remove the Clarkson and Randle salary in trades and the Lakers cap space increases to close to $70 million during a summer in which Leonard, Butler and Thompson can all be free agents. The following season, Anthony Davis has the option to opt out of his contract.

The Lakers' patience will be tested. The one thing they cannot do is follow 2016's plan, when they spent cap space on Timofey Mozgov and Luol Deng. If they're judicious, the goal of once again having a championship-level roster becomes realistic.