How much more valuable will Manny Machado be as a shortstop?

— -- Ever since Manny Machado debuted in the majors at the age of 20, Orioles fans have been dreading the year 2018. It's the final year before the team's new franchise player finally hits free agency, in the absence of a long-term contract extension to keep Machado in the land of steamed crabs and pit beef until sometime around 2025 or so. No such extension materialized over the years, and with the exception of his career blip resulting from his 2013-14 knee surgeries, the price of a long-term deal has gotten more and more expensive.

Playing Machado at shortstop was something I've wanted the O's to do for a long time. J.J. Hardy was a very good defensive shortstop, but Machado was the team's franchise player, and it should have been an organizational imperative to see what the club's most valuable player could do in the majors at his accustomed position. Yes, Machado is on the large side for a shortstop. So were Ripken and Alex Rodriguez, players I'm guessing you might have heard of. Even Andrelton Simmons of the Los Angeles Angels, already fifth all time in the defensive runs Baseball-Reference.com

uses for shortstops, is hardly Ecksteinesque in stature.

Machado has been an excellent defensive third baseman, at 17 runs better than league per 150 defensive games, per Baseball Info Solutions' defensive runs saved (DRS) measure. By ultimate zone rating, he has been nearly as good, at 14 runs better. Those are the types of numbers you would expect a solid shortstop to be putting up at third base, and there's no question with Machado's arm that would lead one to think he'd have a special problem making throws deep in the hole as a shortstop.

In 2016, when Hardy broke his foot, the O's finally gave Machado an extended shot at short, and he performed like you'd expect an above-average shortstop to perform -- plus-9 runs a year by DRS and plus-5 runs by UZR. Neither are inconsistent with either his performance as a third basemen or ZiPS'?rough estimate of Machado as a prospect from the rudimentary minor league data available, at plus-9 runs.

Just from a straight-up measurement of value, ZiPS projects Machado to be more valuable overall as a shortstop, worth 5.1 projected WAR instead of 4.8 in 2018 -- a welcome boost but not enough to make the Orioles top-flight contenders or give them more than two major league-quality starting pitchers.

What putting him at short does do is create more flexibility, something of considerable real-world value that measures such as WAR will have trouble capturing. See Ben Zobrist and Javier Baez the past few seasons or peak-value Tony Phillips. The reality is that even if you are willing to pay top price for a player, you're constrained by the limited supply of players available in trades at any given time. The teams that ought to pay the most to rent Machado for a year or for a stretch run, if they need a shortstop, would prefer not having to predict if Machado would be solid at shortstop at full time; they'd like to know that for a fact. Contenders tend to be risk-averse, for good reasons.

This might be especially important for the Orioles in that there could be stiff competition in the third-base trade market if the Toronto Blue Jays fall out of the race. While the Blue Jays aren't talking explicitly about trading Josh Donaldson -- though there have been some minimal rumblings on the rumor mill -- if they fall out of contention as quickly as they did in 2017, he could join Machado on the market this July. Machado's demonstrating for a fact that he can handle shortstop on an everyday basis would give him something Josh Donaldson won't have.

How important is this flexibility between short and third right now? For a third baseman, it might mean everything, because there's a lot of talent at the position at the moment. ZiPS projects 17 teams in baseball to have at least a 15 percent chance at a playoff spot coming into the 2018 season. But when looking at the projections for those teams' third basemen, only a two of those 17 teams (the Yankees and the Rays) are projected to have a third-base situation in the bottom third of the league. And I suspect the chances of the Rays spending lavishly on a Machado rental are similar to my odds of becoming a swimsuit model.

The good teams largely have good third basemen or at least adequate third basemen. Travis Shaw and Jake Lamb, for example, are average third basemen on contenders, but there's just not as much of a benefit to a short-term upgrade compared to an actual hole. And having Machado play shortstop for the time being in Baltimore doesn't mean he couldn't later play third base for the Yankees down the stretch.

At shortstop, it's a different proposition. Five of those same 17 contending teams are in the bottom third of projected shortstop performance. While the Rays still aren't likely to pay for a Machado rental, the Diamondbacks (with Ketel Marte) or Rockies (with Trevor Story) might see the benefit of a short-term addition. Amed Rosario and Orlando Arcia (on the Mets and Brewers, respectively) have solid long-term projections, but it's certainly within the realm of possibility that a two-month upgrade in a tight race would be worth the price. And that's without bringing up the possibility that any contender could lose its starting shortstop to injury, making a multi-month rental of Machado worthwhile to sustain its bid to win.

It's also worth noting that, among those teams that could see the benefits of Machado as a shortstop, none of them are elite contenders. It's unlikely the Rockies will be leading the NL West by 10 games in July 2018. The value of an additional win or two for non-elite teams in contention is significant.

As a third baseman, ZiPS projects an eight-year contract extension for Machado to be in the area of eight years for $264 million. But as a shortstop, assuming ZiPS' estimate that he's a plus-5 defensive shortstop right now, that jumps up to a $300 million contract. While there are some signs the market has changed and teams are less willing to pay typical dollar-to-projected-WAR ratios for ordinary players, Machado is a special player, a legitimate team building block who hits free agency at age 26. There was nobody in free agency on the level of Machado, but a number of teams were highly interested in Giancarlo Stanton with $295 million remaining in his contract and an opt-out that seriously bites into any financial upside for a team. I suspect the market for legitimate stars hasn't changed that much.

Long term, the consequences of a successful move to short are likely good for Machado when we talk about his place in history. As a third baseman, ZiPS projects Machado to finish at 67.4 WAR for his career, with 461 homers, 2,528 hits and a .272 batting average. That WAR puts him just behind Graig Nettles at 68.0 WAR (Baseball-Reference.com) and Scott Rolen at 70.0. While I would argue both Rolen and Nettles should be Hall of Famers, most of the writers voting have disagreed with me. Those 461 homers with excellent defense is a lot of value, but 390 in a terrible power environment and excellent defense wasn't enough to get Nettles over the 10 percent mark among BBWAA voters.

At shortstop, Machado's projection at the position gets to 73.5 WAR, which gets him ninth place overall. (And 10th when you consider Carlos Correa's career projection, which has him edging out Machado.) Projecting him to hit 455 homers at short (as ZiPS projects slightly different numbers for him at the position) stands out more historically, putting Machado first all time among players who would have played 60 percent or more?of their games at short. That gives him a much easier Hall argument.

I'm of the belief that you want to challenge your best players, to get as much out of them as you can. For the past 5? years, the Orioles have mostly been content to play Machado on Easy Mode. Now it's time to see what he can do at the position he was originally groomed to play.