After a wild first week, which conferences could be left out of the playoff?
— -- After an epic Week 1 in which seven Associated Press-ranked teams lost -- the most in an opening weekend since the AP preseason poll debuted in 1950 -- it's time to re-evaluate the state of doom across college football.
Heading into the season, this space was the playoff dream crusher, presenting viable ways each Power 5 conference champion could be left out of the top four. Do the math: Four teams, five leagues and Notre Dame.
(Don't forget Houston!)
Somebody has to be left out. Maybe it's the SEC (gasp!). Or the Pac-12 (again).
Don't believe it? You're doomed ...
ACC
Preseason doomsday scenario: UNC goes undefeated and gets left out of the playoff because it has two FCS teams on its schedule. The Tar Heels would have knocked off Georgia and Florida State during the regular season, and probably Clemson in the ACC title game.
Current doom forecast: Skies are clear in ACC country. UNC is doomed, but the ACC certainly isn't. With the Tar Heels' loss to Georgia, it doesn't matter if they go on to win the league with a shocking upset over FSU or Clemson in the title game. Not with two FCS wins on the schedule. It would help the Atlantic Division winner to play a ranked opponent in the ACC title game, but with FSU and Clemson both winning against SEC teams in Week 1, the conference kept its hopes of having two teams in the top four alive.
BIG 12
Preseason doomsday scenario: TCU wins the league but gets left out again. The Horned Frogs have the Oklahoma Sooners at home on Oct. 1, and should be 4-0 going into that game.
Current doom forecast: That depends. Hey Texas, are you for real? TCU struggled mightily to beat South Dakota State, and OU entered the season as the league frontrunner, but after losing to Houston, it looked as if the Big 12 could get left out. Then came Texas. The Longhorns quickly became a CFP dark horse contender after their thrilling double-overtime upset of Notre Dame on Sunday, but can they parlay that success into a Big 12 title? Oklahoma certainly can't afford to lose again -- not without a conference championship game -- and it lost to Texas last year, when the Longhorns weren't nearly as good as they looked Sunday. One of these teams has to rise above the rest, or they both will be looking up at the top four.
BIG TEN
Preseason doomsday scenario: Both Jim Harbaugh and Urban Meyer are left out of the top four. Ohio State could lose to Oklahoma and then drop another league game, most likely at Wisconsin, at Michigan State or home against Michigan. The Wolverines could lose in the Big Ten title game.
Current doom forecast: Cloudy. It was a good week for the Big Ten, which led all Power 5 conferences with a 12-2 record against Power 5 nonconference opponents. It's difficult not to look ahead to the Week 3 matchup between Ohio State and Oklahoma, but for now, the conference's biggest problem is strength of schedule. Wisconsin earned the lone marquee win against a ranked opponent and it was a big one against then-No. 5 LSU, but are the Badgers for real? We'll find out in a few weeks when they play a grueling stretch against Michigan State, Michigan, Ohio State and Iowa.
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