2024 on track to become Earth's warmest year on record despite slight global temperature drop: Copernicus

For the first time in more than a year, the planet did not set a new monthly global temperature record. However, Earth did experience its two warmest days on record globally in July, and it's becoming increasingly likely that 2024 will end up as the warmest year on record, according to a new report by Copernicus, the European Union's Climate Change Service.

Last month registered as both the second-warmest July and the second-warmest overall month on record globally, marking the end of 13 months of record-breaking global temperature values for the respective month of the year, the report, released Wednesday, found.

A slight drop in the global average temperature was expected, according to scientists, due to the end of El Niño and the development of La Niña conditions over the equatorial eastern Pacific in the coming months.

The long-term global average temperature trend keeps going up due to human-amplified climate change, despite other variables driving shorter-term fluctuations.

"The overall context hasn’t changed, our climate continues to warm. The devastating effects of climate change started well before 2023 and will continue until global greenhouse gas emissions reach net zero", Samantha Burgess, deputy director of Copernicus, said in a statement.

Although July 2024 was not quite as warm as July 2023 on average, Earth experienced its two warmest days on record in July, according to the Copernicus ERA5 data record.

The daily global average temperature reached 17.16 degrees Celsius, or 62.89 degrees Fahrenheit, on July 22 and 17.15 degrees Celsius, or 62.87 degrees Fahrenheit, on July 23. Given the small difference, it cannot be determined with complete certainty which was the warmest, the report found.

Researchers at Copernicus say that it is increasingly likely that 2024 is going to be the warmest year on record. The year-to-date global average temperature anomaly through the end of July currently ranks .27 degrees Celsius, or .49 degrees Fahrenheit, warmer than the same period in 2023.

The average anomaly for the remaining months of this year would need to drop by at least .23 degrees Celsius, or .41 degrees Fahrenheit, for 2024 not to be warmer than 2023. This has rarely happened in the organization's ERA5 dataset.

The last time Earth recorded a cooler-than-average year was in 1976, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Organization (NOAA).

July 2024 had an average surface air temperature of 16.91 degrees Celsius, or 62.44 degrees Fahrenheit, registering just shy of the all-time highs for both, set in July 2023, according to the report.

The month as a whole was 1.48°C, or 2.66 degrees Fahrenheit, warmer than an estimate of the July average for 1850 to 1900, the designated pre-industrial reference period set in the Paris Agreement.

The global average temperature over the past twelve months, August 2023 through July 2024, was 1.64 degrees Celsius, or 2.95 degrees Fahrenheit above the pre-industrial average, the report found.

The Paris Agreement goals aim to limit global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius higher than pre-industrial levels.

Scientists say that it is important to note that exceeding the 1.5 degree Celsius warming threshold temporarily is not seen as a failure under the Paris Agreement since the agreement looks at the climate average over multiple decades. However, short-term breaches of the threshold are an important signal that those higher averages are likely to happen in the next decade if emissions aren’t reduced significantly.

Global daily sea surface temperatures across most of the world’s oceans remain well above average. The average global sea surface temperature for July 2024, between the latitudes of 60 degrees south and 60 degrees north, was 69.58 degrees Fahrenheit, the second-highest value on record for the month, the report found.

This marks the end of 15 months of record-breaking sea surface temperature values for the respective month of the year, according to Copernicus.

However, persistent marine heatwaves are keeping sea surface temperatures at near-record levels across parts of the globe. This is particularly concerning for forecasters tracking the tropics and the health of the world's coral reefs.

Tropical cyclone activity in the Atlantic Basin historically ramps up quickly during the month of August ahead of the season peak on Sept. 10, according to the National Hurricane Center. Persistent near-record ocean temperatures in the Atlantic were one of the primary factors that led forecasters to issue the highest-ever May outlook calling for a very active season.

Persistent marine heatwaves are also a major concern for the world's coral reefs. In April, NOAA reported that the second global coral reef bleaching event in the last 10 years was underway.

Antarctic sea ice extent dipped to its second-lowest value on record for the month of July, 11% below average. Arctic sea ice extent was 7% below average for the month and lower than the values observed during July 2022 and 2023, according to Copernicus.