It's just past 1:00 p.m. Eastern, and so far 10 House seats are projected to flip party control — six toward Republicans and four for the Democrats. One upset is Pennsylvania's 8th District, which unseated Democratic incumbent Matt Cartwright. The district was forecasted as "lean Democrat" in 538's model.

In a few other districts, newly drawn congressional districts were likely responsible for the changes. New congressional maps for the 2024 election meant Republicans secured 10 reliably red seats out of the 14 in North Carolina, where three seats flipped from Democrat- to Republican-held — all of these were marked as "safe Republican" in our forecast. Meanwhile in Alabama, the newly drawn majority-minority 2nd District is projected to elect the state's second Democrat to the House, Shomari Figures, according to ABC News.

While all eyes have been on state and federal races, mayoral races in some major cities have been flying under the radar. Yesterday, we previewed races in Portland, Oregon and San Francisco where it looked like the existing political establishment might be in for an upset. So far, it looks like those predictions will come to pass.

In Portland, local philanthropist and businessman Keith Wilson appears to have an edge in the race, according to Multnomah County unofficial election results. In the first round of the 20-person ranked choice ballot, Wilson has a lead of about 16 percentage points over city councilman Rene Gonzalez, his nearest challenger. That lead remains fairly stable until the 17th round of eliminations, when City Councilwoman Carmen Rubio jumps ahead of Gonzalez to second place. With each subsequent elimination, Wilson’s lead over Rubio only grows, and in the last round he’s currently ahead by 26 percentage points. Wilson had made his business background and hardline stance around homelessness centerpieces of his campaign.

Meanwhile, in San Francisco, London Breed is facing similar headwinds in results reported so far. In the 15-person ranked choice ballot, she starts off with 25 percent of the vote in the first round, with philanthropist Daniel Lurie ahead at about 28 percent of the vote. That rough split remains fairly stable until the 12th elimination, after which Lurie jumps ahead to 43 percent of the vote, while Breed is earning only 31 percent. In the final round, Lurie is currently ahead of Breed, 56-43. Lurie, an heir to the Levi Strauss fortune, has spent much of his career involved in nonprofit work focused on the key issues in the campaign — homelessness and criminal justice — issues where London Breed has struggled with the electorate.

Finally, in the third mayoral race we previewed yesterday, in Las Vegas, the situation is a bit more murky. While former Democratic Rep. Shelley Berkley is ahead 53-47 over former Republican state representative and current city council member Victoria Seaman, according to the Nevada Secretary of State, it may be that most or all of that vote is early vote, so it’s difficult to tell if that lead will persist (while both candidates have historically had partisan ties, the mayoral election is technically nonpartisan).

Once again, one of the main takeaways of the 2024 election is that Republicans increased their margins among Latino voters. Texas saw this, too, and the side effects were especially pronounced.

In the U.S. Senate race, for instance, where Ted Cruz pummeled his Democratic opponent by 8 percentage points, the Republican incumbent won Latinos by a six point margin. Compare this to 2018, when the same bloc overwhelming went for Democrat Beto O'Rourke.

Indeed, it's incredible to witness just how far South Texas moved to the right this year — but Democrats were already losing ground in this region. In 2016, Hillary won the 28 counties in South Texas or near the border by a combined 39 percentage points, compared with Biden's 17 point win in 2020. This year, however, some of the biggest counties along the Rio Grande Valley went for Trump. In Hidalgo County, the most populous in the RGV, Trump currently leads Harris by 3 percentage points. Compare this to 2020, when Biden won the county by nearly 17 points.

It's unclear whether this rightward march will affect the outstanding border-area House race in Texas. While incumbents Henry Cuellar (a Democrat) and Monica De La Cruz (a Republican) were able to fend off challengers in the 28th and 15th Districts, respectively, the available vote totals show an increasingly close race in Texas's 34th District. In this race, Democratic Rep. Vicente Gonzalez only narrowly leads Mayra Flores, 51% to 49%, with 99% of the expected vote in.

Part of the reason this race, in particular, is so close is because national Republicans poured a ton of money into helping Flores, who briefly held the seat from 2022 to 2023 before she was unseated by Gonzalez. The available evidence suggests that this race is still close, but remains Gonzalez's to lose.

ABC News is projecting a Trump win in Michigan. He won it in 2016 but it had swung to Biden in 2020. A big issue this year was the Israel-Hamas war. Michigan is home to one of the largest Arab American populations in the United States, and voters there were torn about whether to back Harris after she did not call for a ceasefire in Gaza. Trump has signaled that he will be more supportive of Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu than the Biden administration in a second term.