APPLENEWS - STORY ADD

Undecided races of the 2024 election: Live results and analysis

We're tracking who will win the House and other outstanding contests.

The presidential race between former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris has been decided, but there are still several downballot races where the winner isn't yet apparent. Control of the House of Representatives is still up in the air, and while ABC News has projected that Republicans will win the Senate, the size of their majority is still TBD. Needless to say, both of these things will have major implications for how easy it will be for Trump to enact his second-term agenda.

However, it could be a while before we know who won these races. Many of them are in states like California, Arizona and Nevada that take days to count all their ballots. So we at 538 are settling in for the long haul with this live blog dedicated to all the outstanding races of the 2024 election. Join us for live updates, analysis and commentary until the last major race is decided.


0

A number of women are running in close races

I'm still watching several Congressional races where women are competitive — that is, those that 538's forecast rated as "Toss-Up" or "Lean" Democratic or Republican. Just a couple of these races have been called so far, and women won both: In Michigan's 8th District, ABC News is projecting that Kristen McDonald Rivet, the Democrat, will win that open race, defeating Paul Junge. In Virginia's 2nd District, ABC News is projecting that Rep. Jen Kiggans, the Republican, will keep her seat for a second term; she was facing a female challenger, Missy Cotter Smasal.

Elsewhere, we are still waiting. As Alex just mentioned, Iowa's 1st District has not yet been projected, even with 99% of the expected vote reporting. But a woman will win either way in this close race.

Oregon's 5th is another matchup between two women. The Democrat, Janelle Bynum, leads Rep. Lori Chavez-DeRemer 48% to 45%, with 72% of the expected vote reporting.

A couple female Democratic incumbents are currently trailing: Rep. Susan Wild in Pennsylvania's 7th and Rep. Mary Peltola in Alaska's at-large district. Female Democratic incumbents currently leading include Rep. Marie Gluesenkamp Perez in Washington's 3rd, and Rep. Yadira Caraveo in Colorado's 8th. Republican incumbent Rep. Michelle Steel in California's 45th is currently leading with 63% of the expected vote reporting. But these are yet to be projected, so we are keeping an eye on them, and will update as we know more.


Three Nevada House races are still up in the air

Republicans had been hoping to flip the three House seats held by Democrats in Nevada. Right now, it looks like all three Democratic incumbents are narrowly holding on, but the races are still unprojected. In the 3rd Congressional District, with 91% of the expected vote reporting, Rep. Susie Lee is nearly tied with her Republican challenger, Drew Johnson. She’s ahead by just 2,625 votes, or 0.8%.

Rep. Dina Titus, whose 1st District seat covers much of Las Vegas, is faring better with 51% of the vote compared to her challenger Mark Robertson’s 46%. And in the 4th District north of Las Vegas, Rep. Steven Horsford is leading against John Lee, 53% to 44%. In both those races, 86% of the expected vote is reporting.

The presidential race in the state is also yet to be projected, but with 93% of the expected vote reporting statewide, Trump is ahead of Harris 51% to 47%. Polls had shown that race locked in a tie heading into the election, and it could be that these congressional incumbents outperform Harris in the end.


Toss-up House races we're still monitoring

Of the 435 House seats that were up for grab on Election Day, only five are considered true toss-ups. Of that number, two of the seats are in California (the 22nd and 45th Districts), one seat is in Iowa (the 1st District), one is in New York (the 19th District) and the final seat is in Washington (the 3rd District).

We might be waiting a little bit until all of these races are called — in California, for instance, just over half of the expected vote share is in. But what we know so far seems to suggest Republican victories in three seats, and Democratic wins in the remaining two. If these trends hold true, that would amount to just one flipped seat in Democrats' favor: in New York's 19th District. While ABC News has yet to project a winner, the Associated Press called the race for Democrat Josh Riley late Tuesday evening. The stakes here are high: The New York Times reported that there was roughly $45 million spent on this contest alone. If Riley holds on, his win would represent the second flip for Democrats in The Empire State. On Tuesday evening, state Senator John Mannion, a Democrat, defeated incumbent Republican Rep. Brandon Williams in the neighboring 22nd District.

In the remaining four toss-up races, it looks like the incumbent legislators will pull through — but only by a thread. In Iowa's 1st District, for instance, Republican Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks leads Democrat Christina Bohannan, with a lead of less than 1,000 votes and 99% of the expected vote in. The second-closest race may be Washington's 3rd District, where Democratic Rep. Marie Gluesenkamp Perez currently leads her challenger, Joe Kent, by four percentage points.


Welcome (back)!

The presidential race may be decided, but here at 538, we are just getting started tracking election results. There are still dozens of unprojected races in the House and Senate, and we will use this live blog to track them all until the last race is projected or we collapse from exhaustion (whichever comes first).

The biggest missing piece of the puzzle right now is the House of Representatives. Either party could still win control there, although Republicans are in a better position right now. ABC News has projected that the GOP will win at least 204 seats and Democrats will win at least 190.

Meanwhile, ABC News has already projected that Republicans will win the Senate, but we still don’t know how big that majority is going to be. Republicans currently have 52 seats, but six states remain unprojected, and Republicans look like they could easily win some of those (e.g., Pennsylvania or Nevada).

Needless to say, the results of these races have big policy implications. If Democrats manage to win the House, they will have veto power over much of Trump’s agenda. Even if Republicans win the House by a narrow margin, they could find it difficult to govern given the rancor within their caucus. And in the Senate, there’s a big difference between 52 Republican seats (where moderate Republican senators might be able to hold up parts of Trump’s agenda) and 54 or 55 Republican seats (where they would be able to pass bills, and confirm judges and Cabinet members, more easily).