Election 2023 results and analysis: Democrats excel in Kentucky, Ohio, Virginia
Republican Gov. Tate Reeves is projected to win reelection in Mississippi.
Nov. 7, 2023, was Election Day in at least 37 states, and Americans cast their votes on everything from governorships to local referenda. When the dust settled, it was a solid night for Democrats and their allies: According to ABC News projections, Democratic Gov. Andy Beshear won reelection in Kentucky, and Ohio voters passed Issue 1 to codify abortion rights in the state constitution. The AP also projected that Democrats won both chambers of the Virginia legislature and an open seat on the Pennsylvania Supreme Court. However, there were a few bright spots for Republicans: ABC News projected that Mississippi Gov. Tate Reeves beat back a strong challenge from Democrat Brandon Presley.
As results came in, 538 analysts were breaking them down in real time with live updates, analysis and commentary. Read our full live blog below.
Latest headlines:
Virginia Democrats positioned to hold onto state Senate
Well, right on cue Nathaniel: It seems Democrat Russet Perry probably has the upper hand on Republican Juan Pablo Segura in the 31st Senate District. Most of the remaining vote appears to be mail ballots, based on data from the Virginia Public Access Project, which are more likely to be Democratic-leaning because of the partisan split in preferred voting method in the post-2020 world. Along with the seeming Democratic edge in the GOP-held 16th District, this would be enough to give Democrats 21 of 40 seats in the state Senate — should results hold.
—Geoffrey Skelley, 538
More on Virginia Senate District 16
Geoffrey, as you wrote in your preview of the Virginia legislative races, Senate District 16 may have been Democrats’ easiest pickup opportunity in the state Senate. Although it had a GOP incumbent, the district voted for Democrats by 6 points in the 2021 governor’s race and 10 points in 2022 House races. The real test for the party will be winning that 21st seat. Perhaps their best bet is Senate District 31 in the D.C. exurbs, where they currently lead 51 percent to 49 percent.
—Nathaniel Rakich, 538
Beshear is holding his lead in Kentucky
With 74 percent of the expected vote in, Beshear is still leading Cameron by 4 points, 52 to 48 percent. It's still early, but it's a promising sign for the incumbent.
—Monica Potts, 538
Early results in New Jersey trickle in
We're starting to see some early votes trickle in from the New Jersey state legislative races. In the 11th Legislative District, which is one of the state's most competitive, we've got a bit of votes counted but it's all early in-person and mail-in. Democratic state Sen. Vin Gopal is locked in a nasty fight with GOP challenger Steve Dnistrian. While Gopal leads 72 to 27 percent, per Monmouth County's elections reporting site, that will come down as election day ballots are counted.
—Jacob Rubashkin, Inside Elections
An interesting race in New Jersey
There's one race in New Jersey I've been particularly interested in, because it's taking place in a district that has no right being competitive: the 30th Legislative District, which voted for Trump by 35 points in 2020 and for GOP gubernatorial nominee Jack Ciattarelli by 28 points in 2021. But Democrats landed a top recruit in Avi Schnall, who's a leader in the district's sizeable Orthodox Jewish community. Schnall, who only recently left the Republican Party, is running for one of the district's two state assembly seats. In New Jersey, each legislative district has two assemblymembers, so the top two vote-getters in the race win. In the assembly race, the AP estimates 76 percent of the expected vote has been counted, and Schnall is currently in second place with 25.3 percent. While Republican Sean Kean is in first with 38 percent, the other GOP nominee, Ned Thomson, is in third with 24.7 percent.
—Jacob Rubashkin, Inside Elections