Well, right on cue Nathaniel: It seems Democrat Russet Perry probably has the upper hand on Republican Juan Pablo Segura in the 31st Senate District. Most of the remaining vote appears to be mail ballots, based on data from the Virginia Public Access Project, which are more likely to be Democratic-leaning because of the partisan split in preferred voting method in the post-2020 world. Along with the seeming Democratic edge in the GOP-held 16th District, this would be enough to give Democrats 21 of 40 seats in the state Senate — should results hold.

—Geoffrey Skelley, 538

Geoffrey, as you wrote in your preview of the Virginia legislative races, Senate District 16 may have been Democrats’ easiest pickup opportunity in the state Senate. Although it had a GOP incumbent, the district voted for Democrats by 6 points in the 2021 governor’s race and 10 points in 2022 House races. The real test for the party will be winning that 21st seat. Perhaps their best bet is Senate District 31 in the D.C. exurbs, where they currently lead 51 percent to 49 percent.

—Nathaniel Rakich, 538

With 74 percent of the expected vote in, Beshear is still leading Cameron by 4 points, 52 to 48 percent. It's still early, but it's a promising sign for the incumbent.

—Monica Potts, 538

We're starting to see some early votes trickle in from the New Jersey state legislative races. In the 11th Legislative District, which is one of the state's most competitive, we've got a bit of votes counted but it's all early in-person and mail-in. Democratic state Sen. Vin Gopal is locked in a nasty fight with GOP challenger Steve Dnistrian. While Gopal leads 72 to 27 percent, per Monmouth County's elections reporting site, that will come down as election day ballots are counted.

—Jacob Rubashkin, Inside Elections

Elections in 2022 yielded very different political outcomes across different states. Just take a look at of voting patterns in last year’s Senate contests compared to the 2020 presidential race, and you’ll see that it looked like a blue wave in some states and a red wave in others. There weren’t even regional trends, let alone national trends! For example, Democrats overperformed in Pennsylvania, Ohio and Kentucky, while Republicans overperformed in Indiana, Iowa and Wisconsin. That’s particularly striking given the relatively high degree of nationalization in American politics today.

There are a couple of explanations for those discordant results, and one obvious one was candidate quality. In places where Republicans , they lost, even while more mainstream Republican candidates were winning elsewhere on the ballot. Another likely factor is that state-level policy concerns were indeed influencing voters. For example, in places where a midterm vote served as a proxy for abortion rights — like Michigan, — Democrats tended to do better. In places where the issue appeared settled — like New York — Democrats did worse.

Tonight I’m curious if we’ll see a continuation of this trend. Beyond the issue of abortion, blue and red states are heading in different policy directions on everything from guns, to taxes, to LGBTQ issues. So will voters living in different policy worlds vote differently? Might voters in blue states react to perceived excesses in Democratic governance by swinging to the right, and vice versa? Or will national politics trump everything, leading to uniform swings? We shall see.

—Galen Druke, 538