With 90% of the expected vote reporting, Marcy Kaptur, the incumbent Democrat representing Toledo and parts of rural northeastern Ohio, is currently trailing challenger Derek Merrin by just 0.4 points (or less than 2,000 votes). The contest has been flopping back and forth all night. That's obviously too close to say anything about how the district may ultimately go, but it's notable in how far this departed from our model's expectations and other indicators in the district. The polls had Katpur leading by 11; the fundamentals saw a closer race, at D+4. At this point we're very likely to end up closer to those fundamentals and the expert race raters than the polls, even if she does win.

Like I remind people, we should expect "likely" House ratings to go the other way about 10-15% of the time. This year, that would be five to six seats. We'll keep an eye on other plausible House upsets and report back.

The vibe at Trump's watch party has significantly shifted to a livelier mood in the last hour.

CNN is playing on the TV screen, and as returns started rolling in showing Trump with a lead in battleground states, the campaign briefly turned off the news and started playing a supercut video of Trump dancing while YMCA was blasting.

People were mimicking Trump's dancing, bouncing around as we heard multiple cheers throughout the convention ballroom.