At 8 p.m., with 76% of the expected vote reporting, Harris is trailing 538's benchmarks for a tied race in the state in every single county. That's not surprising in and of itself; Florida voted for Trump in 2020, after all. But the deficit is large enough for ABC News to project that Trump will win the state's 30 Electoral College votes at the time polls have closed.

With 76% of the vote in, Harris' margin in Miami-Dade County is especially poor, lagging 538's benchmarks by 22 points.

In the Lone Star State, most political observers will be keeping an eye on the Texas Senate race (which I previewed here. But I'll also be keeping an eye on three congressional races taking places in TX-15, TX-28 and TX-34.

Two of these three seats are represented by Democrats — Reps. Henry Cuellar of Laredo and Vicente Gonzalez of McAllen are the incumbents for TX-28 and TX-34, respectively. The nonpartisan Cook Political Report suggests suggests that these two seats should remain Democratic, but the races could still be competitive. Cuellar was indicted in May on charges of bribery and money laundering, which could hurt him in the polls. Gonzalez, on the other hand, faces a comeback bid against former Republican Rep. Mayra Flores. As a result, national Republicans are pouring a ton of money into this seat to help clinch her victory. What's more, these two have gone head-to-head once before. Gonzalez unseated Flores in 2022 after serving three terms in the neighboring 15th District, which was redrawn during the 2021 redistricting process to be more favorable to Republicans.

In the 15th District, meanwhile, Democrat Michelle Vallejo is making another run against freshman Rep. Monica De La Cruz, a Republican. In 2022, this was considered one of the more competitive congressional races in Texas and De La Cruz's win was viewed as a watershed moment in Texas Republicans' outreach to Latino voters. With her victory in 2022, De La Cruz became the first Republican to ever represent the district. This year, however, it looks as though De La Cruz is more-certain to win reelection, as the Cook Political Report named this a "likely Republican" seat. But Vallejo has somewhat abandoned some of the progressive stances that made her a darling of the left just two years prior. This year, she's joined Rep. Colin Allred (the state's Democratic Senate candidate) in criticizing so-called "chaos" at the Texas-Mexico border — a pivot to the middle that angered some of her past supporters. Given that border security and immigration-related issues are top of mind for Texans, it makes some sense that Vallejo would try to moderate her views in order to attract some disaffected Republicans or independents. But it's unclear if this move will ultimately help her reach the 50% vote threshold. The available polling and fundraising we have, at least, suggests that this race is still very much De La Cruz's to lose.

ABC News projects that Trump has won the presidential race in Alabama, Florida, Missouri, Oklahoma and Tennessee. These were all states won by the former president four years ago, and states in which he maintained large polling leads through most of the contest. Together, these 5 states gain him 67 electoral votes.

It's now 8 p.m. Eastern, and results are going to start flooding in from a big crop of states. The last polling places have closed in Alabama, Connecticut, Delaware, the District of Columbia, Florida, Illinois, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Mississippi, Missouri, New Hampshire, New Jersey, Oklahoma, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island and Tennessee. Here are our forecasts for the races in those areas:

Many polling places are also closing in Kansas, Michigan, North Dakota, South Dakota and Texas — more on those states when they've closed in full.