Since control of the Georgia Supreme Court wasn’t up for grabs, it’s hard to see one seat’s election as a real referendum on abortion. Add in the fact that Barrow’s attacks on Pinson kind of fell flat — yes, Pinson previously defended the state’s abortion ban, but as solicitor general, it was his job to defend the law against a legal challenge — and it just wasn’t enough to galvanize voters.

—Kaleigh Rogers, 538

The incumbency advantage probably played a role here. And awareness about this race was probably low, even as Barrow tried to elevate it and tie it to a consequential issue, like abortion. I agree with Cooper that perhaps the stakes weren't high enough.

—Meredith Conroy, 538 contributor

In addition to what Geoffrey and Cooper said, I’d also echo what Mary said about abortion polling in the state in an earlier post. Abortion is just a little less important to Georgia voters than it is nationally. That said, none of this means abortion won’t matter to voters in November. And as we’ve seen time and time again, the issue tends to give Democrats an edge.

—Monica Potts, 538

According to AdImpact, a lot less money was spent in support of Barrow than of Pinson.

But I'm actually struck by how little money was spent in this race at all! Just over 3 million dollars was spent in 2024 in support of either candidate, which is far less than we usually see for a high profile, competitive statewide election. This may have just flown under voters' radar in general, and having Pinson marked as the incumbent on the ballot may have also been enough to put him over the top.

—Mary Radcliffe, 538

Nathaniel, I can imagine a few factors played into how the Georgia state Supreme Court race is playing out. For one thing, state Supreme Court races are usually sleep affairs in Georgia, and control of the court wasn't up for grabs. But it's pretty clear that turnout was pretty low across the state, even for a primary. In the 2022 midterms, about 1.9 million people cast votes in the Democratic and Republican primaries for U.S. Senate; so far tonight, around 667,000 votes have been counted, which per the AP is 56 percent of the expected vote. So there might be about two-thirds as many voters in this race than in the 2022 primaries in Georgia.

It also looks like turnout in the Atlanta area was especially low, with great consequences for the liberal/Democratic candidate. For instance, about half the vote is in from Fulton County, one of the bluest in the state, and Barrow only leads there by 6 points compared with Biden's 46-point edge there in 2020.

—Geoffrey Skelley, 538