Georgia, Oregon, Idaho and Kentucky primaries 2024: Willis, McAfee win; tough night for progressives

Abortion didn’t help liberals flip a Georgia Supreme Court seat.

On May 21, voters in Georgia, Idaho, Oregon, Kentucky and California held key elections for Congress and nationally watched local races. Two key figures from one of Trump’s legal cases, Fani Willis and Scott McAfee, easily won their races, while conservatives won a Georgia Supreme Court election fought largely over abortion. In the House, progressives lost two key races in Oregon, while California voters picked a successor to Kevin McCarthy.

As usual, 538 reporters and contributors broke down the election results as they came in with live updates, analysis and commentary. Read our full live blog below.


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Answer: Perhaps the stakes weren’t high enough

It’s interesting, Nathaniel: Abortion ranked as the third-most important issue in a recent New York Times/Siena College poll of Georgia. And 64 percent of respondents to that poll said they thought abortion should be always or mostly legal. But perhaps voters today didn’t see their vote as having much of an impact; after all, regardless of the outcome of this race, conservatives will still dominate the state Supreme Court, where eight of the nine justices were appointed by Republicans.

—Cooper Burton, 538


Answer: Primary election turnout might have something to do with it?

Nathaniel, I can imagine a few factors played into how the Georgia state Supreme Court race is playing out. For one thing, state Supreme Court races are usually sleep affairs in Georgia, and control of the court wasn't up for grabs. But it's pretty clear that turnout was pretty low across the state, even for a primary. In the 2022 midterms, about 1.9 million people cast votes in the Democratic and Republican primaries for U.S. Senate; so far tonight, around 667,000 votes have been counted, which per the AP is 56 percent of the expected vote. So there might be about two-thirds as many voters in this race than in the 2022 primaries in Georgia.

It also looks like turnout in the Atlanta area was especially low, with great consequences for the liberal/Democratic candidate. For instance, about half the vote is in from Fulton County, one of the bluest in the state, and Barrow only leads there by 6 points compared with Biden's 46-point edge there in 2020.

—Geoffrey Skelley, 538


Question: Why didn’t liberals do better in the Georgia Supreme Court race?

Since the Dobbs decision, abortion has galvanized Democrats and liberals to victory in several races: There were the 2022 midterms; there was the 2023 Wisconsin Supreme Court election; there was the ballot measure to codify abortion rights in the Ohio constitution last November.

But in Georgia today, the pro-abortion-rights message appears to have fallen flat; Pinson is beating Barrow 56 percent to 44 percent with about half of the vote counted. Why do you guys think that is?

—Nathaniel Rakich, 538


Women in state legislatures

Tonight, Kaleigh's been updating us on state legislative races in Georgia. There's a misconception that female representation is markedly better in lower level offices, like state legislatures. It's a bit better, but not much. Women currently make up 28 percent of the U.S. Congress, and just 33 percent of state legislatures, nationwide. That number varies state to state, and some states we're watching today are below that average, while others are above: Idaho's state legislature is 30 percent women, Kentucky's 31 percent, Georgia's 35 percent, and Oregon's 41 percent (!), according to the Center for American Women and Politics.

—Meredith Conroy, 538 contributor


Candidates of color to watch

Tonight, we'll be monitoring how candidates of color perform in primaries for the U.S. House of Representatives. Overall, 31 people of color are running in these contests — 27 Democrats and four Republicans.

The most high-profile primaries involving these candidates are arguably in Oregon. Jayapal, who is Indian American, faces a competitive primary in the state's 3rd District. One of her principal opponents is Morales, who is Latino. Meanwhile, in the 5th District, Bynum is seeking to become the first Black representative from Oregon. Two Latina incumbents in Oregon, Republican Rep. Lori Chavez-DeRemer and Democratic Rep. Andrea Salinas, should easily win renomination.

In Georgia, the main race of interest involving a person of color is incumbent Rep. David Scott, who faces six other Democrats of color in the majority-Black 13th District. Redistricting changed this seat significantly from the previous version Scott represented, but he's still probably favored. Flowers, who is also Black, is Scott's only challenger who really stands out, although he's not raised remotely as much as he did in 2022 or party activist Johsie Cruz Fletcher.

Elsewhere in Georgia, four Black incumbents — Democratic Reps. Sanford Bishop, Hank Johnson, Nikema Williams and Lucy McBath — all look set to win renomination in their solidly blue districts. Only McBath has any primary opposition, as she faces Cobb County Commissioner Jerica Richardson and state Rep. Mandisha Thomas, who are both Black, in the redrawn 6th District. Johnson, meanwhile, can look forward to a November matchup against Republican Eugene Yu, a Korean American and perennial candidate who is unopposed for his party's nomination in the 4th District.

In some of Georgia's solid red seats, the Democratic nominees will also likely be people of color. In the 14th District, retired Army Gen. Shawn Harris, who is Black, has raised a few hundred thousand dollars and looks favored to advance to November, where Greene will be heavily advantaged. In the 12th District, either 2022 nominee Liz Johnson or Army veteran Daniel Jackson, both Black, will be the Democratic pick against Republican Rep. Rick Allen, who'll likely win reelection. In the 11th District, businessman Antonio Daza, who is Latino, may be favored to win the Democratic nod to face GOP Rep. Barry Loudermilk, to whom Daza lost in the 2022 general election.

Meanwhile, Jonathan Richardson, who is Black, is the only person of color on a House primary ballot today in Kentucky; he's one of a few Democrats looking to challenge incumbent Republican Rep. Andy Barr in the safely red 6th District this fall. No candidates of color are running today in Idaho.

—Geoffrey Skelley, 538