Georgia, Oregon, Idaho and Kentucky primaries 2024: Willis, McAfee win; tough night for progressives
Abortion didn’t help liberals flip a Georgia Supreme Court seat.
On May 21, voters in Georgia, Idaho, Oregon, Kentucky and California held key elections for Congress and nationally watched local races. Two key figures from one of Trump’s legal cases, Fani Willis and Scott McAfee, easily won their races, while conservatives won a Georgia Supreme Court election fought largely over abortion. In the House, progressives lost two key races in Oregon, while California voters picked a successor to Kevin McCarthy.
As usual, 538 reporters and contributors broke down the election results as they came in with live updates, analysis and commentary. Read our full live blog below.
Latest headlines:
Dexter projected to win in Oregon's 3rd District
Well, that wasn't as interesting as we expected. ABC News is reporting that state Rep. Maxine Dexter is projected to win the Democratic primary in Oregon's solidly blue 3rd District. With 45 percent of the expected vote reporting, Dexter leads Jayapal 53 percent to 25 percent. This result prevents some history: Had Jayapal won this race and gone on to win the general election, she and her sister Pramila Jayapal (a representative from Washington state) would've been the first sisters to serve in Congress at the same time while representing different states. In November, Dexter will almost certainly win the general election and succeed retiring Rep. Earl Blumenauer in the Portland-based seat.
—Geoffrey Skelley, 538
Simpson seems strong
We've got a little bit of the vote counted counted in Idaho's 1st District, and GOP Rep. Mike Simpson is in command with 58 percent of the vote, a 25-point lead over challenger Scott Cleveland, per the AP. Simpson beat back a stronger primary opponent last cycle and looks like he'll be back again next year.
—Jacob Rubashkin, Inside Elections
Bynum projected to win in Oregon's 5th District
ABC News is reporting that state Rep. Janelle Bynum is projected to win the Democratic primary in Oregon's 5th District over attorney Jamie McLeod-Skinner. With 49 percent of the expected vote reporting, Bynum leads 70 percent to 30 percent. This is a win for the DCCC, which backed Bynum in the primary in the hopes that she'd be a stronger bet for the party than McLeod-Skinner, who lost the 2022 general election to Chavez-DeRemer.
Notably, when McLeod-Skinner defeated Schrader in the 2022 Democratic primary here, she did so by holding down Schrader's margins in Clackamas County outside Portland and running up big margins in Deschutes County and the small part of Multnomah in the district. But tonight, Bynum leads by substantial margins in every part of the district.
—Geoffrey Skelley, 538
Fong projected to win in California’s 20th
And that’s that: ABC News reports that Fong is projected to win the special election in California’s 20th District. He’s expected to be sworn into the House soon, giving Johnson a crucial additional Republican vote. Once he is sworn in, the House will stand at 218 Republicans and 213 Democrats, meaning Johnson can afford two Republican defections on party-line votes and still win.
—Nathaniel Rakich, 538
Democratic women we’re watching
According to the Center for American Women and Politics, in primaries that have been decided through May 8, 41 percent of Democrats' U.S. House nominees thus far are women, compared to just 14 percent of Republicans'. In short, Democrats are nominating many more women in this cycle than Republicans, thus far.
We are watching several Democratic women today who are looking to add to those numbers, including a couple of primaries in Oregon where multiple female candidates are facing off in races that have drawn contentious outside spending.
In Oregon's 5th District, two women — state Rep. Janelle Bynum and attorney Jamie McLeod-Skinner — are running to face the one-term incumbent, Lori Chavez-DeRemer, in the general. Chavez-DeRemer, one of just 34 Republican women in the House, won election in 2022 by defeating McLeod-Skinner by just 2 percentage points. In 2022, with support from progressive groups like Our Revolution and Indivisible, McLeod-Skinner successfully mounted a progressive challenge to defeat a seven-term incumbent (Kurt Schrader) before losing to Chavez-DeRemer. In today's primary, McLeod-Skinner doesn't have endorsements from Our Revolution or Indivisible, but she is endorsed by many local groups, and a few sitting members of Congress, while Bynum is endorsed by EMILYs List, plus Democratic Gov. Tina Kotek. No matter who wins, November's general election will be a rematch. Bynum defeated Chavez-DeRemer in state house races in 2016 and 2018. This district will play a crucial role in the Republicans' attempts to maintain their slim majority in the U.S. House.
In Oregon's deep-blue 3rd District, several women are competing for the nomination to replace longtime Rep. Earl Blumenauer, who is not seeking reelection. In this crowded primary, two progressive women look to be the leading candidates — state Rep. Maxine Dexter and former Multnomah County Commissioner Susheela Jayapal. Jayapal's sister is Rep. Pramila Jayapal, the Democratic congresswoman from Washington, and member of The Squad. EMILYs List has not endorsed in this race.
Elsewhere in the state, EMILYs List has endorsed two Oregon incumbents — Rep. Val Hoyle in the 4th District and Rep. Andrea Salinas in the 6th. In 2022, Hoyle won her general election by about 7 points, and Salinas won hers by less than 3 points. Both are seen as targets for Republicans aiming to pick up seats this fall.
In Georgia's safely blue 6th District, recently redrawn due to redistricting, the Democrats' entire field is women: Rep. Lucy McBath (who currently represents the 7th District), state Rep. Mandisha Thomas and Cobb County Commissioner Jerica Richardson. And in the 13th, Rep. David Scott, who is 78 and also just saw his district redrawn, faces a host of challengers, two of whom are women — Uloma Kama, a physician, and Karen Rene, an attorney.
Finally, in Idaho's 1st District, Kaylee Peterson is running unopposed to face Rep. Russ Fulcher in this deep-red district in November, as she did in 2022. And in Kentucky, Erin Marshall is running unopposed in the 1st District, which is also a safely red seat and therefore an unlikely pickup for Democrats. I've written before that Republicans are more likely to nominate women as sacrificial lambs (which is a candidate who runs unopposed in a primary for a losing November seat to give members of their party a choice in the race), but Democrats do it, too! A Democratic woman (Shauna Rudd) is also running in Kentucky's 6th District against four men. This is also a safely red seat.
—Meredith Conroy, 538 contributor