Georgia, Oregon, Idaho and Kentucky primaries 2024: Willis, McAfee win; tough night for progressives
Abortion didn’t help liberals flip a Georgia Supreme Court seat.
On May 21, voters in Georgia, Idaho, Oregon, Kentucky and California held key elections for Congress and nationally watched local races. Two key figures from one of Trump’s legal cases, Fani Willis and Scott McAfee, easily won their races, while conservatives won a Georgia Supreme Court election fought largely over abortion. In the House, progressives lost two key races in Oregon, while California voters picked a successor to Kevin McCarthy.
As usual, 538 reporters and contributors broke down the election results as they came in with live updates, analysis and commentary. Read our full live blog below.
Latest headlines:
Knott County, Kentucky, residents will soon be able to buy booze
In Kentucky, each county can determine whether to allow alcohol sales, and to what degree. In the 2023 general election, several counties approved the sale of alcohol after having been dry for decades. Tonight, after 3 previous failed attempts, a small southeastern Kentucky county finally voted to approve liquor sales. Cheers, Knott County.
—Mary Radcliffe, 538
Keeping an eye on a GOP incumbent in Idaho’s 2nd District primary
Polls close in part of Idaho in about a half an hour, but the only race we're really watching there is the GOP primary in the 2nd Congressional District. Republican Rep. Mike Simpson has represented the solidly red seat since first winning it in 1998, and he seems more likely than not to claim a 14th term in Congress this year. However, Simpson's relatively centrist brand has previously caused him trouble, like in 2022 when he only won 55 percent against a well-funded primary challenger.
Now, Simpson doesn't have the same scale of opposition this time around: His main competitor is Scott Cleveland, an Ada County (Boise) GOP central committee member running to Simpson's right who's only raised $100,000. Still, we're keeping an eye on Simpson's vote share because some establishment Republicans this cycle have had weak primary performances against more right-wing challengers, like Arkansas Rep. Steve Womack and Texas Rep. Tony Gonzales (who still has to face his challenger again in a May 28 runoff).
—Geoffrey Skelley, 538
Scott still has a big lead in Georgia's 13th District Democratic primary
With 62 percent of the expected vote in, incumbent Georgia Rep. Scott has 61 percent of the vote so far, according to The Associated Press. His closest challenger, Baker, a former city council member who lost to Scott in 2022, is at 11 percent.
—Monica Potts, 538
Barrow wasn’t always such a crusader for abortion rights
Matt Klein, from the Cook Political Report with Amy Walter, reminds us that before reinventing himself as a crusader for abortion rights in this year's election, Barrow was a conservative Blue Dog Democrat in Congress:
Hard to come up with a better illustration of the old way to win elections as a Democrat in the Deep South vs. the new way!
—Nathaniel Rakich, 538
Democratic women we’re watching
According to the Center for American Women and Politics, in primaries that have been decided through May 8, 41 percent of Democrats' U.S. House nominees thus far are women, compared to just 14 percent of Republicans'. In short, Democrats are nominating many more women in this cycle than Republicans, thus far.
We are watching several Democratic women today who are looking to add to those numbers, including a couple of primaries in Oregon where multiple female candidates are facing off in races that have drawn contentious outside spending.
In Oregon's 5th District, two women — state Rep. Janelle Bynum and attorney Jamie McLeod-Skinner — are running to face the one-term incumbent, Lori Chavez-DeRemer, in the general. Chavez-DeRemer, one of just 34 Republican women in the House, won election in 2022 by defeating McLeod-Skinner by just 2 percentage points. In 2022, with support from progressive groups like Our Revolution and Indivisible, McLeod-Skinner successfully mounted a progressive challenge to defeat a seven-term incumbent (Kurt Schrader) before losing to Chavez-DeRemer. In today's primary, McLeod-Skinner doesn't have endorsements from Our Revolution or Indivisible, but she is endorsed by many local groups, and a few sitting members of Congress, while Bynum is endorsed by EMILYs List, plus Democratic Gov. Tina Kotek. No matter who wins, November's general election will be a rematch. Bynum defeated Chavez-DeRemer in state house races in 2016 and 2018. This district will play a crucial role in the Republicans' attempts to maintain their slim majority in the U.S. House.
In Oregon's deep-blue 3rd District, several women are competing for the nomination to replace longtime Rep. Earl Blumenauer, who is not seeking reelection. In this crowded primary, two progressive women look to be the leading candidates — state Rep. Maxine Dexter and former Multnomah County Commissioner Susheela Jayapal. Jayapal's sister is Rep. Pramila Jayapal, the Democratic congresswoman from Washington, and member of The Squad. EMILYs List has not endorsed in this race.
Elsewhere in the state, EMILYs List has endorsed two Oregon incumbents — Rep. Val Hoyle in the 4th District and Rep. Andrea Salinas in the 6th. In 2022, Hoyle won her general election by about 7 points, and Salinas won hers by less than 3 points. Both are seen as targets for Republicans aiming to pick up seats this fall.
In Georgia's safely blue 6th District, recently redrawn due to redistricting, the Democrats' entire field is women: Rep. Lucy McBath (who currently represents the 7th District), state Rep. Mandisha Thomas and Cobb County Commissioner Jerica Richardson. And in the 13th, Rep. David Scott, who is 78 and also just saw his district redrawn, faces a host of challengers, two of whom are women — Uloma Kama, a physician, and Karen Rene, an attorney.
Finally, in Idaho's 1st District, Kaylee Peterson is running unopposed to face Rep. Russ Fulcher in this deep-red district in November, as she did in 2022. And in Kentucky, Erin Marshall is running unopposed in the 1st District, which is also a safely red seat and therefore an unlikely pickup for Democrats. I've written before that Republicans are more likely to nominate women as sacrificial lambs (which is a candidate who runs unopposed in a primary for a losing November seat to give members of their party a choice in the race), but Democrats do it, too! A Democratic woman (Shauna Rudd) is also running in Kentucky's 6th District against four men. This is also a safely red seat.
—Meredith Conroy, 538 contributor