Georgia, Oregon, Idaho and Kentucky primaries 2024: Willis, McAfee win; tough night for progressives
Abortion didn’t help liberals flip a Georgia Supreme Court seat.
On May 21, voters in Georgia, Idaho, Oregon, Kentucky and California held key elections for Congress and nationally watched local races. Two key figures from one of Trump’s legal cases, Fani Willis and Scott McAfee, easily won their races, while conservatives won a Georgia Supreme Court election fought largely over abortion. In the House, progressives lost two key races in Oregon, while California voters picked a successor to Kevin McCarthy.
As usual, 538 reporters and contributors broke down the election results as they came in with live updates, analysis and commentary. Read our full live blog below.
Latest headlines:
Pinson is doing well in Atlanta suburbs, a signal that he may stick around on the state Supreme Court
In the only contested state Supreme Court race tonight in Georgia, the incumbent Justice Andrew Pinson (the Republican pick) is currently leading former Democratic Rep. John Barrow. With 23 percent of the expected votes in, Pinson leads 54 percent to 46 percent. And while the county-level results are largely breaking the way we'd expect, Pinson is picking up the lead in some unexpected parts of the Atlanta suburbs. As Nathaniel pointed out on X, Pinson leads in Douglas County, which went for Biden 62–37 percent in 2020, as well as Gwinnett County—which Biden carried 58–40 percent in 2020. He's leading, too, in Henry County, which Biden won with 60 percent of the vote in 2020, and currently (narrowly) ahead in Clayton County, which went for Biden 85-14 percent! It could be that these suburban voters are happy with the status quo, or agreed with Pinson's characterization that Barrow was "politicizing" this non-partisan race by focusing so intently on the issue of abortion, but whatever the reason, Pinson is probably happy to see these early numbers.
—Kaleigh Rogers, 538
McBath holding a strong lead in her new district
Because of redistricting, McBath is running in a redrawn 6th district instead of the 7th, which she currently represents. But her name recognition and fundraising strength looks like they're carrying over. With 37 percent of the expected vote in, she has a commanding 88 percent of the vote, according to the AP.
—Monica Potts, 538
The main characters in Trump’s Georgia trial are coasting tonight
If you’ve been following Trump’s legal woes, some of the names on today’s ballot will be familiar to you: Both Fulton County District Attorney Fani Willis, who charged Trump in connection with his efforts to subvert the results of the 2020 election in Georgia, and Judge Scott McAfee, who’s overseeing the case, are running for reelection this year. And neither one of them is encountering any trouble: The AP is already projecting that Willis has won her Democratic primary 90 percent to 11 percent over a token challenger. And the AP has also projected that McAfee will win reelection over his “conservative Democratic” opponent, 83 percent to 17 percent.
—Nathaniel Rakich, 538
There are no Republican women running in Georgia's 3rd
The primary for the GOP nomination in Georgia's 3rd District is a competitive one! Its a safely red district, where an incumbent is not seeking reelection, but as I mentioned earlier on the liveblog, there aren't any Republican women among the field. In 2020, we watched where Republicans were nominating women and found that through the August races, only six out of 77 Republican women who had won GOP nomination won in a safe Republican seat. A whopping 49 of those women won in safe Democratic seats. In other words, they were winning primaries in places where they won't win in November. We'll be looking at whether this is the case in 2024, too.
—Meredith Conroy, 538 contributor
Democratic women we’re watching
According to the Center for American Women and Politics, in primaries that have been decided through May 8, 41 percent of Democrats' U.S. House nominees thus far are women, compared to just 14 percent of Republicans'. In short, Democrats are nominating many more women in this cycle than Republicans, thus far.
We are watching several Democratic women today who are looking to add to those numbers, including a couple of primaries in Oregon where multiple female candidates are facing off in races that have drawn contentious outside spending.
In Oregon's 5th District, two women — state Rep. Janelle Bynum and attorney Jamie McLeod-Skinner — are running to face the one-term incumbent, Lori Chavez-DeRemer, in the general. Chavez-DeRemer, one of just 34 Republican women in the House, won election in 2022 by defeating McLeod-Skinner by just 2 percentage points. In 2022, with support from progressive groups like Our Revolution and Indivisible, McLeod-Skinner successfully mounted a progressive challenge to defeat a seven-term incumbent (Kurt Schrader) before losing to Chavez-DeRemer. In today's primary, McLeod-Skinner doesn't have endorsements from Our Revolution or Indivisible, but she is endorsed by many local groups, and a few sitting members of Congress, while Bynum is endorsed by EMILYs List, plus Democratic Gov. Tina Kotek. No matter who wins, November's general election will be a rematch. Bynum defeated Chavez-DeRemer in state house races in 2016 and 2018. This district will play a crucial role in the Republicans' attempts to maintain their slim majority in the U.S. House.
In Oregon's deep-blue 3rd District, several women are competing for the nomination to replace longtime Rep. Earl Blumenauer, who is not seeking reelection. In this crowded primary, two progressive women look to be the leading candidates — state Rep. Maxine Dexter and former Multnomah County Commissioner Susheela Jayapal. Jayapal's sister is Rep. Pramila Jayapal, the Democratic congresswoman from Washington, and member of The Squad. EMILYs List has not endorsed in this race.
Elsewhere in the state, EMILYs List has endorsed two Oregon incumbents — Rep. Val Hoyle in the 4th District and Rep. Andrea Salinas in the 6th. In 2022, Hoyle won her general election by about 7 points, and Salinas won hers by less than 3 points. Both are seen as targets for Republicans aiming to pick up seats this fall.
In Georgia's safely blue 6th District, recently redrawn due to redistricting, the Democrats' entire field is women: Rep. Lucy McBath (who currently represents the 7th District), state Rep. Mandisha Thomas and Cobb County Commissioner Jerica Richardson. And in the 13th, Rep. David Scott, who is 78 and also just saw his district redrawn, faces a host of challengers, two of whom are women — Uloma Kama, a physician, and Karen Rene, an attorney.
Finally, in Idaho's 1st District, Kaylee Peterson is running unopposed to face Rep. Russ Fulcher in this deep-red district in November, as she did in 2022. And in Kentucky, Erin Marshall is running unopposed in the 1st District, which is also a safely red seat and therefore an unlikely pickup for Democrats. I've written before that Republicans are more likely to nominate women as sacrificial lambs (which is a candidate who runs unopposed in a primary for a losing November seat to give members of their party a choice in the race), but Democrats do it, too! A Democratic woman (Shauna Rudd) is also running in Kentucky's 6th District against four men. This is also a safely red seat.
—Meredith Conroy, 538 contributor