Georgia, Oregon, Idaho and Kentucky primaries 2024: Willis, McAfee win; tough night for progressives
Abortion didn’t help liberals flip a Georgia Supreme Court seat.
On May 21, voters in Georgia, Idaho, Oregon, Kentucky and California held key elections for Congress and nationally watched local races. Two key figures from one of Trump’s legal cases, Fani Willis and Scott McAfee, easily won their races, while conservatives won a Georgia Supreme Court election fought largely over abortion. In the House, progressives lost two key races in Oregon, while California voters picked a successor to Kevin McCarthy.
As usual, 538 reporters and contributors broke down the election results as they came in with live updates, analysis and commentary. Read our full live blog below.
Latest headlines:
The lesson out of Oregon
Based on the blowouts in Oregon’s 3rd and 5th District Democratic primaries, is the lesson here just “big spending works”?
—Nathaniel Rakich, 538
More results in Oregon's 4th District
With 55 percent of the expected vote reporting in the Republican primary for Oregon's 4th District, DeSpain's lead has increased over former Keizer city councilmember, Amy Ryan Courser. It now stands at 58 percent to 41 percent, respectively.
—Meredith Conroy, 538 contributor
Progressive Portland DA badly trailing his more conservative challenger
In the Multnomah County District Attorney race, incumbent Mike Schmidt is trailing challenger Nathan Vasquez, 42 percent to 58 percent, with about half the expected votes reporting, according to the New York Times. Multnomah County is the most populous county in Oregon, and includes the city of Portland.
In an April survey, Portland area residents told DHM Research/The Oregonian that the two biggest concerns in their area were homelessness (53 percent) and crime (20 percent), two issues where the DA might make a difference. Respondents were particularly supportive of cracking down on homeless encampments: 63 percent said that "local governments should be allowed to ban people from camping in public spaces and fine or arrest anyone who refuses to leave," while just 27 percent disagreed.
Vasquez has blamed Schmidt and his policies for the rise in homelessness, drug use and crime in the area. And it looks like that approach may be working for him. He's off to a solid lead, and as this is a nonpartisan election, whoever wins tonight will take over the office.
—Mary Radcliffe, 538
Some statewide race projections from the Beaver State
Further down the ballot, Oregon voters also selected their party nominees for secretary of state and attorney general. Just a few minutes after polls closed (shoutout vote-by-mail!), ABC News reported that state Treasurer Tobias Read is projected to win the Democratic primary for secretary of state, the state's second-highest office. Read, who currently leads with 71 percent of the vote, had the establishment support and fundraising lead over state Sen. James Manning, who is in second place with 20 percent.
In April, Bolts Magazine wrote about this race as a test for different views on democracy and voting rights: Manning campaigned on a more progressive vision, including allowing incarcerated people to vote, while Read said he would prioritize fine-tuning the state's existing systems, including universal mail voting.
Oregon tends to elect Democrats statewide, so Read is probably the favorite to win in November over state Sen. Dennis Linthicum, the far-right Republican nominee who campaigned on ending vote-by-mail and was barred from running for reelection in the state Senate after he and other Republican lawmakers participated in a six-week quorum-denying protest over issues abortion, gun control and transgender health care.
ABC News also reports that state Rep. Dan Rayfield, who was state House Speaker for two years, is projected to be the Democratic nominee for attorney general. He'll face former prosecutor Will Lathrop in November in a race to succeed outgoing Attorney General Ellen Rosenblum, who is stepping down after 12 years in office.
—Irena Li, 538
Democratic women we’re watching
According to the Center for American Women and Politics, in primaries that have been decided through May 8, 41 percent of Democrats' U.S. House nominees thus far are women, compared to just 14 percent of Republicans'. In short, Democrats are nominating many more women in this cycle than Republicans, thus far.
We are watching several Democratic women today who are looking to add to those numbers, including a couple of primaries in Oregon where multiple female candidates are facing off in races that have drawn contentious outside spending.
In Oregon's 5th District, two women — state Rep. Janelle Bynum and attorney Jamie McLeod-Skinner — are running to face the one-term incumbent, Lori Chavez-DeRemer, in the general. Chavez-DeRemer, one of just 34 Republican women in the House, won election in 2022 by defeating McLeod-Skinner by just 2 percentage points. In 2022, with support from progressive groups like Our Revolution and Indivisible, McLeod-Skinner successfully mounted a progressive challenge to defeat a seven-term incumbent (Kurt Schrader) before losing to Chavez-DeRemer. In today's primary, McLeod-Skinner doesn't have endorsements from Our Revolution or Indivisible, but she is endorsed by many local groups, and a few sitting members of Congress, while Bynum is endorsed by EMILYs List, plus Democratic Gov. Tina Kotek. No matter who wins, November's general election will be a rematch. Bynum defeated Chavez-DeRemer in state house races in 2016 and 2018. This district will play a crucial role in the Republicans' attempts to maintain their slim majority in the U.S. House.
In Oregon's deep-blue 3rd District, several women are competing for the nomination to replace longtime Rep. Earl Blumenauer, who is not seeking reelection. In this crowded primary, two progressive women look to be the leading candidates — state Rep. Maxine Dexter and former Multnomah County Commissioner Susheela Jayapal. Jayapal's sister is Rep. Pramila Jayapal, the Democratic congresswoman from Washington, and member of The Squad. EMILYs List has not endorsed in this race.
Elsewhere in the state, EMILYs List has endorsed two Oregon incumbents — Rep. Val Hoyle in the 4th District and Rep. Andrea Salinas in the 6th. In 2022, Hoyle won her general election by about 7 points, and Salinas won hers by less than 3 points. Both are seen as targets for Republicans aiming to pick up seats this fall.
In Georgia's safely blue 6th District, recently redrawn due to redistricting, the Democrats' entire field is women: Rep. Lucy McBath (who currently represents the 7th District), state Rep. Mandisha Thomas and Cobb County Commissioner Jerica Richardson. And in the 13th, Rep. David Scott, who is 78 and also just saw his district redrawn, faces a host of challengers, two of whom are women — Uloma Kama, a physician, and Karen Rene, an attorney.
Finally, in Idaho's 1st District, Kaylee Peterson is running unopposed to face Rep. Russ Fulcher in this deep-red district in November, as she did in 2022. And in Kentucky, Erin Marshall is running unopposed in the 1st District, which is also a safely red seat and therefore an unlikely pickup for Democrats. I've written before that Republicans are more likely to nominate women as sacrificial lambs (which is a candidate who runs unopposed in a primary for a losing November seat to give members of their party a choice in the race), but Democrats do it, too! A Democratic woman (Shauna Rudd) is also running in Kentucky's 6th District against four men. This is also a safely red seat.
—Meredith Conroy, 538 contributor