Georgia, Oregon, Idaho and Kentucky primaries 2024: Willis, McAfee win; tough night for progressives
Abortion didn’t help liberals flip a Georgia Supreme Court seat.
On May 21, voters in Georgia, Idaho, Oregon, Kentucky and California held key elections for Congress and nationally watched local races. Two key figures from one of Trump’s legal cases, Fani Willis and Scott McAfee, easily won their races, while conservatives won a Georgia Supreme Court election fought largely over abortion. In the House, progressives lost two key races in Oregon, while California voters picked a successor to Kevin McCarthy.
As usual, 538 reporters and contributors broke down the election results as they came in with live updates, analysis and commentary. Read our full live blog below.
Latest headlines:
Major outside spending could tip the scales in Oregon’s 3rd District
Looking ahead to Oregon's results, the Portland-based 3rd District hosts one of the big contests of the night. Longtime Rep. Earl Blumenauer's retirement has left open this solidly blue seat, and three contenders with progressive brands are competing for the Democratic nomination: state Rep. Maxine Dexter, former Multnomah County Commissioner Susheela Jayapal and Gresham City Councilor Eddy Morales. At first blush, Jayapal looked to be the front-runner, as she previously represented close to 30 percent of the 3rd District's overall population — far more than Dexter or Morales. She also sports ties to national progressives via her younger sister, Washington Rep. Pramila Jayapal, who chairs the Congressional Progressive Caucus.
Yet a late campaign cash bonanza may have turned the race on its head, to Dexter's benefit. Pre-primary financial reports through May 1 showed that Dexter had received a massive late boost to bring her campaign total to $919,000, ahead of Jayapal's $773,000 and Morales's $606,000. And from May 2 to May 19, Dexter reported $419,000 in major contributions, far more than her opponents' combined $150,000. Meanwhile, outside groups have spent more than $5 million either supporting Dexter or opposing Jayapal. The 314 Action Fund, a progressive group that supports candidates with science backgrounds, has doled out $2.2 million on ads promoting Dexter and a super PAC with unclear ties, Voters for Responsive Government, has spent $3.2 million on spots attacking Jayapal.
This surge of money has brooked controversy because it appears at least partly connected to the American Israel Public Affairs Committee, a bipartisan pro-Israel group opposed to progressive critics of Israel's military action in Gaza. While Dexter supports "a negotiated cease-fire" and Morales has called for aid to Gaza, Jayapal has emphasized her consistent and early calls for a cease-fire — so it would follow that groups like AIPAC would prefer that someone else wins. Tellingly, an analysis by Oregon Public Broadcasting found that a substantial portion of Dexter's last-minute donors have a history of giving to AIPAC, and some recently supported notable Republicans such as House Speaker Mike Johnson.
More controversially, The Intercept published reports in early May alleging that AIPAC funneled money to the 314 Action Fund to spend on Dexter's behalf, presumably because more direct intervention by AIPAC could backfire in a progressive-inclined district. The 314 Action Fund denied the allegations, and in the last pre-primary filing from the group on Monday evening, it turned out that a substantial chunk of the organization's recently raised cash came from billionaire former New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg and financier Rob Granieri. Either way, the money could prove to be a massive difference-maker for Dexter's campaign.
—Geoffrey Skelley, 538
How candidates of color are doing so far tonight
Coming into today, we were tracking 31 people of color running for Congress in today’s primaries — 27 Democrats and four Republicans. With much of Georgia and Kentucky’s results in, we know the electoral fates of more than two-thirds of those contenders.
In Georgia, five incumbent Black Democrats all won renomination, including McBath, who cruised in the redrawn 6th District despite not previously representing any of this turf in her current district (the old 7th District). Scott didn’t have it as easy in the new 13th District, of which he only represents about one-third of right now, but he won the Democratic primary with 59 percent of the vote against a crowded field of challengers. Flowers, perhaps the most noteworthy of Scott’s opponents, finished in third with 10 percent. Democratic Reps. Sanford Bishop, Hank Johnson and Nikema Williams were all unopposed in their primaries.
Two other Black candidates have been projected as winners in Democratic primaries in solidly red Georgia seats. In the 8th District, Darrius Butler won his primary but will be a clear underdog against Republican Rep. Austin Scott. The same is true in the 12th District for Liz Johnson, who has to face GOP Rep. Rick Allen in November. On the GOP side, Latino contender Jonathan Chavez won the right to face Scott in the 13th District, which will almost certainly vote Democratic in November. And in the 4th District, Eugene Yu was unopposed for the GOP nomination; he’ll be a huge underdog against Johnson in the general election.
The remaining candidates of color with a shot at winning today are in Oregon, where we won’t have results for a while to come.
—Geoffrey Skelley, 538
No Idaho results until 11 p.m. Eastern
Per Idaho Public Television’s live blog of today’s primary, even though polls are now closed in most of the Gem State, no results will be released until polls are closed statewide at 11 p.m. Eastern.
—Nathaniel Rakich, 538
Reexamining conventional campaign wisdom
Here's something to do while waiting on those results ...
When it comes to winning elections, is it really, "the economy, stupid?" Are "soccer moms" the quintessential swing voter? And does it matter which candidate you'd rather share a beer with? Every election cycle, cliches come easy. But are they right?
That's what we try to get to the bottom of in our new mini-series on the 538 Politics podcast, "Campaign Throwback." In the first installment we interrogate the role that the economy plays in electoral outcomes, in the second we ask how suburban women came to be viewed as swing voters and whether that is the case today. In our final installment, which will come out tomorrow morning, we look at the "beer question." Starting in the 2000s, pollsters and pundits began speculating that voters are drawn to the candidate they'd rather have a beer with. We go back and look at the data to try to determine if that's actually how Americans choose their presidents.
So while you wait for that last set of polls to close, take some time to catch up on the latest "Campaign Throwback" episodes in the podcast feed, and tune back in tomorrow morning for our final installment!
—Galen Druke, 538
Georgia’s 3rd is going to a runoff
The AP is projecting that Jack and Dugan will go to a runoff to decide the Republican nominee in Georgia’s 3rd District. With 92 percent of the expected vote in, Jack has 47 percent and Dugan has 25 percent. The Trump-endorsed Jack will therefore go into the June 18 runoff a strong favorite to win.
—Nathaniel Rakich, 538