Georgia, Oregon, Idaho and Kentucky primaries 2024: Willis, McAfee win; tough night for progressives

Abortion didn’t help liberals flip a Georgia Supreme Court seat.

On May 21, voters in Georgia, Idaho, Oregon, Kentucky and California held key elections for Congress and nationally watched local races. Two key figures from one of Trump’s legal cases, Fani Willis and Scott McAfee, easily won their races, while conservatives won a Georgia Supreme Court election fought largely over abortion. In the House, progressives lost two key races in Oregon, while California voters picked a successor to Kevin McCarthy.

As usual, 538 reporters and contributors broke down the election results as they came in with live updates, analysis and commentary. Read our full live blog below.


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Pinson is doing well in Atlanta suburbs, a signal that he may stick around on the state Supreme Court

In the only contested state Supreme Court race tonight in Georgia, the incumbent Justice Andrew Pinson (the Republican pick) is currently leading former Democratic Rep. John Barrow. With 23 percent of the expected votes in, Pinson leads 54 percent to 46 percent. And while the county-level results are largely breaking the way we'd expect, Pinson is picking up the lead in some unexpected parts of the Atlanta suburbs. As Nathaniel pointed out on X, Pinson leads in Douglas County, which went for Biden 62–37 percent in 2020, as well as Gwinnett County—which Biden carried 58–40 percent in 2020. He's leading, too, in Henry County, which Biden won with 60 percent of the vote in 2020, and currently (narrowly) ahead in Clayton County, which went for Biden 85-14 percent! It could be that these suburban voters are happy with the status quo, or agreed with Pinson's characterization that Barrow was "politicizing" this non-partisan race by focusing so intently on the issue of abortion, but whatever the reason, Pinson is probably happy to see these early numbers.

—Kaleigh Rogers, 538


McBath holding a strong lead in her new district

Because of redistricting, McBath is running in a redrawn 6th district instead of the 7th, which she currently represents. But her name recognition and fundraising strength looks like they're carrying over. With 37 percent of the expected vote in, she has a commanding 88 percent of the vote, according to the AP.

—Monica Potts, 538


The main characters in Trump’s Georgia trial are coasting tonight

If you’ve been following Trump’s legal woes, some of the names on today’s ballot will be familiar to you: Both Fulton County District Attorney Fani Willis, who charged Trump in connection with his efforts to subvert the results of the 2020 election in Georgia, and Judge Scott McAfee, who’s overseeing the case, are running for reelection this year. And neither one of them is encountering any trouble: The AP is already projecting that Willis has won her Democratic primary 90 percent to 11 percent over a token challenger. And the AP has also projected that McAfee will win reelection over his “conservative Democratic” opponent, 83 percent to 17 percent.

—Nathaniel Rakich, 538


There are no Republican women running in Georgia's 3rd

The primary for the GOP nomination in Georgia's 3rd District is a competitive one! Its a safely red district, where an incumbent is not seeking reelection, but as I mentioned earlier on the liveblog, there aren't any Republican women among the field. In 2020, we watched where Republicans were nominating women and found that through the August races, only six out of 77 Republican women who had won GOP nomination won in a safe Republican seat. A whopping 49 of those women won in safe Democratic seats. In other words, they were winning primaries in places where they won't win in November. We'll be looking at whether this is the case in 2024, too.

—Meredith Conroy, 538 contributor


How candidates of color are doing so far tonight

Coming into today, we were tracking 31 people of color running for Congress in today’s primaries — 27 Democrats and four Republicans. With much of Georgia and Kentucky’s results in, we know the electoral fates of more than two-thirds of those contenders.

In Georgia, five incumbent Black Democrats all won renomination, including McBath, who cruised in the redrawn 6th District despite not previously representing any of this turf in her current district (the old 7th District). Scott didn’t have it as easy in the new 13th District, of which he only represents about one-third of right now, but he won the Democratic primary with 59 percent of the vote against a crowded field of challengers. Flowers, perhaps the most noteworthy of Scott’s opponents, finished in third with 10 percent. Democratic Reps. Sanford Bishop, Hank Johnson and Nikema Williams were all unopposed in their primaries.

Two other Black candidates have been projected as winners in Democratic primaries in solidly red Georgia seats. In the 8th District, Darrius Butler won his primary but will be a clear underdog against Republican Rep. Austin Scott. The same is true in the 12th District for Liz Johnson, who has to face GOP Rep. Rick Allen in November. On the GOP side, Latino contender Jonathan Chavez won the right to face Scott in the 13th District, which will almost certainly vote Democratic in November. And in the 4th District, Eugene Yu was unopposed for the GOP nomination; he’ll be a huge underdog against Johnson in the general election.

The remaining candidates of color with a shot at winning today are in Oregon, where we won’t have results for a while to come.

—Geoffrey Skelley, 538