Georgia, Oregon, Idaho and Kentucky primaries 2024: Willis, McAfee win; tough night for progressives
Abortion didn’t help liberals flip a Georgia Supreme Court seat.
On May 21, voters in Georgia, Idaho, Oregon, Kentucky and California held key elections for Congress and nationally watched local races. Two key figures from one of Trump’s legal cases, Fani Willis and Scott McAfee, easily won their races, while conservatives won a Georgia Supreme Court election fought largely over abortion. In the House, progressives lost two key races in Oregon, while California voters picked a successor to Kevin McCarthy.
As usual, 538 reporters and contributors broke down the election results as they came in with live updates, analysis and commentary. Read our full live blog below.
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Answer: Primary election turnout might have something to do with it?
Nathaniel, I can imagine a few factors played into how the Georgia state Supreme Court race is playing out. For one thing, state Supreme Court races are usually sleep affairs in Georgia, and control of the court wasn't up for grabs. But it's pretty clear that turnout was pretty low across the state, even for a primary. In the 2022 midterms, about 1.9 million people cast votes in the Democratic and Republican primaries for U.S. Senate; so far tonight, around 667,000 votes have been counted, which per the AP is 56 percent of the expected vote. So there might be about two-thirds as many voters in this race than in the 2022 primaries in Georgia.
It also looks like turnout in the Atlanta area was especially low, with great consequences for the liberal/Democratic candidate. For instance, about half the vote is in from Fulton County, one of the bluest in the state, and Barrow only leads there by 6 points compared with Biden's 46-point edge there in 2020.
—Geoffrey Skelley, 538
Question: Why didn’t liberals do better in the Georgia Supreme Court race?
Since the Dobbs decision, abortion has galvanized Democrats and liberals to victory in several races: There were the 2022 midterms; there was the 2023 Wisconsin Supreme Court election; there was the ballot measure to codify abortion rights in the Ohio constitution last November.
But in Georgia today, the pro-abortion-rights message appears to have fallen flat; Pinson is beating Barrow 56 percent to 44 percent with about half of the vote counted. Why do you guys think that is?
—Nathaniel Rakich, 538
Women in state legislatures
Tonight, Kaleigh's been updating us on state legislative races in Georgia. There's a misconception that female representation is markedly better in lower level offices, like state legislatures. It's a bit better, but not much. Women currently make up 28 percent of the U.S. Congress, and just 33 percent of state legislatures, nationwide. That number varies state to state, and some states we're watching today are below that average, while others are above: Idaho's state legislature is 30 percent women, Kentucky's 31 percent, Georgia's 35 percent, and Oregon's 41 percent (!), according to the Center for American Women and Politics.
—Meredith Conroy, 538 contributor
Georgia voters look a little more conservative on abortion than the country
Monica mentioned earlier that anti-abortion candidates in Georgia Republican primaries are doing fairly well, and I can't say I'm surprised. In an April survey by Morning Consult/Bloomberg, 70 percent of Georgia voters said that abortion would be "very important" or "somewhat important" to their vote for U.S. president, a bit less than the 76 percent of swing state voters overall. But when asked which presidential candidate they trust more to handle the issue of abortion, 41 percent said Biden and 37 percent said Trump, a narrower gap than we've seen in national polling that tends to favor Biden.
And of course, in a Republican primary the issue may be even less salient in the state. Just 37 percent of Republican voters in the state told the pollsters that the issue was very important, compared to 61 percent of Democrats and 52 percent of independents.
—Mary Radcliffe, 538
That’s a wrap!
With all of tonight's key races now projected, it's time for us to hit the hay. Here's a recap of who won today:
- Despite trying to ride the wave of voter activation over abortion, former Democratic Rep. John Barrow failed to unseat Republican-appointed Justice Andrew Pinson in the only contested race for Georgia Supreme Court today.
- Challenges to a pair of major figures in Trump's Georgia election-interference case also went nowhere. Fulton County District Attorney Fani Willis easily won her Democratic primary, and Judge Scott McAfee won his judicial election against a self-described "conservative Democrat."
- The Republican primary in Georgia's 3rd District is going to a June 18 runoff between longtime Trump staffer Brian Jack and former state Senate Majority Leader Mike Dugan.
- In Georgia's 13th District, incumbent Rep. David Scott prevailed over his six challengers to win his Democratic primary and will go on to seek reelection in November. Scott's challengers tried to focus on his age and health as an issue, echoing criticisms facing the Democrats and President Joe Biden in November, but incumbency proved too powerful an advantage.
- Out west, the DCCC got their candidate in Oregon's 5th District, as state Rep. Janelle Bynum easily dispatched attorney Jamie McLeod-Skinner, who lost in 2022 in this seat against Republican Rep Lori Chavez-DeRemer. Bynum will face off against Chavez-DeRemer this November.
- In Oregon's 3rd District, state Rep. Maxine Dexter benefited from a plethora of outside spending to defeat former Multnomah County Commissioner Susheela Jayapal in the Democratic primary, all-but-ensuring that Dexter will be this dark-blue seat's next representative.
- Republican Mike Erickson will get a third shot at winning a House seat as he cruised to victory in the GOP primary for Oregon's 6th District. At times, Erickson seems more focused on winning a defamation case against Rep. Andrea Salinas regarding an ad she aired last cycle against him than he does on beating her in an election.
- In Idaho's 2nd District, incumbent Republican Mike Simpson is poised to win his primary and likely reelection this fall. With more than 60 percent of the votes counted, he leads his closest challenger, investment adviser Scott Cleveland, 57 percent to 34 percent. (Scott Cleveland is a great quarterback name, now that this politics thing doesn't seem to be working out.)
- In the special election in California's 20th District (former Speaker Kevin McCarthy's old seat), Assemblyman Vince Fong defeated fellow Republican Tulare County Sheriff Mike Boudreaux. As a result, Speaker Mike Johnson will soon get an extra vote in the House.
—Monica Potts, Nathaniel Rakich, Kaleigh Rogers and Geoffrey Skelley, 538; Jacob Rubashkin, Inside Elections