And Geoff, it only cost Taylor $1.7 million. Not a bad deal given how much some other self-funders have spent just to come up short. (David Trone dropping $13 million to lose my home district, MD-08, in 2016 comes to mind.)

—Jacob Rubashkin, Inside Elections

As I noted in the opener for our live blog today, the polls in Ohio's Senate race showed a "close race" between Moreno and Dolan, with LaRose in a somewhat distant third. The result, however, is anything but close. With 85 percent of the expected vote reporting, Moreno currently has a lead of 17 points, making for an 18-point miss in our polling average (after you account for some rounding). This is not the largest miss in Senate primary polling history — that honor belongs to surveys of the 2018 Republican primary for a special Senate election in Mississippi — but it is nevertheless very large. An 18-point miss is about 2 times the size of the expected miss of primary polls in historical Senate races (8.2 points).

This miss is notable because it's actually larger than historical expectations. That's the opposite of what we've been seeing with presidential primary polls — which, while they have systematically overestimated support for Trump this cycle, have at least been more accurate than the historical average presidential primary survey. Pollsters will need to do some work to figure out what went wrong.

—G. Elliott Morris, 538

In Ohio's 12th District Republican primary, David Taylor is projected to win, according to ABC News. With more than 90 percent of the expected vote reporting, Taylor has 25 percent of the vote, putting just ahead of Tim O’Hara (21 percent) and Larry Kidd (19 percent) in a crowded 11-candidate contest. Considering this is solidly red turf, Taylor is all but certain to be the next representative from this suburban-exurban Cincinnati area seat.

—Geoffrey Skelley, 538

With 68 percent of the expected vote reporting, Bost leads Bailey 53 percent to 47 percent in the Republican primary in Illinois's 12th District. But Bost looks to be on pace for a potentially narrower win — and perhaps could even lose. After the 2020 Census, Illinois Democrats drew a gerrymander that packed more Republican-leaning turf into Bost's 12th District in southern Illinois, which he had represented since 2015. About half of the new-look version of the seat had been in Bost's old district, but much of the eastern part of the seat was new to him. Meanwhile, Bailey's old state Senate seat made up a large chunk of that eastern section, giving him a geographical base of support for this primary despite facing the incumbent Bost.

As things stand, Bost is winning about 70 percent of the vote so far in the area he represented prior to the 2022 election, while Bailey is winning 73 percent in the counties that were in his old state Senate seat. The two are running about even in the remaining turf. The good news for Bost is that more of the primary vote will likely come from his neck of the woods. But the good news for Bailey is that more outstanding votes are likely left to be counted in his area of the district. A back of the envelope calculation based on each candidate's showing so far would put Bost up about 51 percent to 49 percent by the time all is said and done, but that is too close to call.

—Geoffrey Skelley, 538

It’s midnight Eastern, and all but one of our key races have been projected in Ohio and Illinois. Here’s a recap of where things stand in those races:

- Former President Donald Trump once again flexed his muscles in the Ohio Senate race, elevating former car salesman Bernie Moreno from a 2022 also-ran to the GOP nominee in one of the two top Senate races on the map, beating an uber-rich state senator and a two-time statewide officeholder in the process. But Moreno’s toughest path lies ahead, against well-funded incumbent Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown. With 96 percent of the expected vote reporting, Moreno leads with 51 percent of the vote over state Sen. Matt Dolan’s 33 percent and Ohio Secretary of State Frank LaRose’s 17 percent.

- In Ohio's 9th District, the conservative backed by Trump and House Speaker Mike Johnson, state Rep. Derek Merrin, is projected to win, and ready to take on Democratic Rep. Marcy Kaptur in what could be a tough general election race. With 80 percent of the expected vote reporting, Merrin has won 52 percent of the vote, 18 percentage points ahead of his nearest competition.

- In Ohio’s 13th District, another potentially competitive Democratic-held seat, former state Sen. Kevin Coughlin advanced out of the GOP primary rather easily and will take on Democratic Rep. Emilia Sykes in November. With 80 percent of the expected vote in, Coughlin leads with 65 percent of the vote so far over businessman Chris Banweg’s 28 percent and Richard Morckel’s 7 percent.

- The Republican Main Street Partnership notched a win against its rivals in the House Freedom Caucus in Ohio’s 6th District, where state Sen. Michael Rulli is projected to beat state Rep. Reggie Stoltzfus. Rulli currently leads by 9 points with 83 percent of the expected vote reporting in the regular primary, and by 8 points with 82 percent of the expected vote in the special election. Rulli will face a nominal challenge from Democrat Michael Kripchak on June 11 in the special election to replace Rep. Bill Johnson.

- In another safe GOP seat, Ohio’s 2nd District Republican primary went for business owner David Taylor, who won a crowded race that was tantamount to election in November. With 95 percent of the expected vote reporting, Taylor leads with 25 percent of the expected vote over 10 other challengers.

- Despite several challengers lining up to replace Democratic Rep. Danny Davis, the long-time incumbent is likely to hold onto his seat in Illinois’s 7th District. With 76 percent of the expected vote in, Davis leads with 53 percent of the vote so far. In second is Chicago City Treasurer Melissa Conyears-Ervin with 22 percent, followed by community organizer Kina Collins with 18 percent. Collins was seen as Davis’s primary competition tonight, and her underwhelming performance was part of a tough night for progressives in Chicago.

—Jacob Rubashkin, Inside Elections; Geoffrey Skelley and Monica Potts, 538