I mentioned earlier that Merrin had been involved in a speaker fight in Ohio that he lost when another candidate, Stephens, won the backing of Democrats to hold a more moderate speakership. Twenty-two Republicans in the state House joined in voting for Stephens, including Stephens himself, and were dubbed the Blue 22. They were censured by the state party. Of those running again, 12 face primary challengers. By our count, 8 of the Blue 22 running for reelection are currently ahead and 4 are running behind their challengers, according to the Ohio Secretary of State. Stephens is running unopposed, but that could spell doom for his speakership.

—Monica Potts, 538

The earlier result I mentioned that appeared to show Nikki Haley had won heavily Amish Holmes County, Ohio, looks to have been a reporting error. The error has been corrected, and updated results from the Associated Press show Trump leading the county 82-11 percent with over 95 percent of the vote reporting.

—Mary Radcliffe, 538

Merrin, the last-minute addition to the race, is projected to win the primary in Ohio's 9th District, according to ABC News. He will face incumbent Kaptor. Despite her incumbency, the seat could be tough for the long-serving Democrat to hold onto. As Nathaniel wrote earlier, Republicans in the state redrew the district to make it more Republican. But finding the right candidate has been tough for them: They'll be holding out hope that Merrin, who's been involved in his own intraparty battles in the state, will win this November.

—Monica Potts, 538

In Illinois’s 31st state House District, a battle has been brewing between longtime state representative Mary Flowers and state House Speaker Chris Welch. Flowers was the deputy Democratic leader of the chamber from 2020-2023, but was stripped of her leadership position in May 2023 after allegations of abusive conduct toward other members and staff. This year, Speaker Welch led an effort to oust her from the chamber, directing hundreds of thousands of dollars toward her challenger, Michael Crawford, and encouraging outside groups, particularly unions, to support Crawford.

The effort appears to have paid off: Crawford, an educator and political newcomer, is projected to win, according to the Associated Press. He leads the 19-term congresswoman 70-30 with 64 percent of the vote reporting.

—Mary Radcliffe, 538

Democrats are likely to be pleased with the Moreno win in the GOP primary for Ohio's Senate seat tonight. Because of his ideological extremity and endorsement from Trump, most Democratic strategists and political prognosticators believe him to be a weaker general-election candidate than his competitors would have been. Indeed, Democrats even took out ads in favor of Moreno, trying to boost him to exactly this outcome.

This is not a completely baseless idea. After the 2022 midterms, I found that GOP primary candidates who were endorsed by Trump went on to lag the predictions for general-election Democratic by a vote margin of about 5 percentage points. That large of an effect could tip a close race in Ohio, so the expected vote calculus likely favors Democrats here.

But the political calculus is another matter. Democrats have been criticized in the past for endorsing Trump's chosen candidates as an electoral strategy on the grounds that it increases the likelihood of Washington passing Republican policies and pushing Trump's agenda. Given that the Senate is likely to go Republican in the fall, having Trump-endorsed Moreno in the halls of Congress may provide a higher ROI for Trump than having a Senator Dolan or LaRose. By pushing these ads, Democrats are betting the return on votes will outweigh the potential downside. That bet does not come without risk.

—G. Elliott Morris, 538