Polls have now closed across Illinois, where we'll be monitoring several U.S. House primaries, as well as a closely-watched referendum in Chicago. Rep. Mike Bost is facing a challenge from his right, while Rep. Danny Davis is facing one from his left.

—Cooper Burton, 538

The first votes for Ohio's 9th Congressional District are rolling in, and with 13 percent of the expected vote reporting, Merrin is slightly ahead with 46 percent of the vote, while Riedel is second with 39 percent, and Lankeneau is a distant third (14 percent). As Nathaniel wrote earlier, Merrin was a late addition to the contentious race after audio leaked of Riedel calling Trump "arrogant." And as I wrote earlier, Merrin is no stranger to intra-Republican battles.

—Monica Potts, 538

As we wait for the first results to trickle in, let's take a look at the issues voters are thinking about in the state. Among likely primary voters in Ohio, Republicans are much more concerned about immigration than Democrats, according to a poll released last week by Emerson College/The Hill/Nexstar. Specifically, given a list of options, 27 percent of voters who said they were very likely to vote in the Republican primary selected "immigration" as the most important issue facing Ohio, while only 2 percent of very likely Democratic primary voters said the same.

Republican primary voters were also more likely than Democratic primary voters to name "the economy (jobs, inflation, taxes)" as the most important issue facing the state, 39 percent to 27 percent. On the flip side, likely Democratic primary voters were more likely than Republicans to select "abortion access," 15 percent to 3 percent, and "threats to democracy," 18 percent to 7 percent.

—Mary Radcliffe, 538

Polls have now closed across Ohio. The Buckeye State usually counts its early and mail votes first, so expect to see some large vote dumps right off the bat. A word of caution, though: Early and absentee votes are not necessarily representative of the electorate as a whole. We'll want to wait to get more Election Day votes in before drawing any concrete conclusions.

—Cooper Burton, 538

Democrats are likely to be pleased with the Moreno win in the GOP primary for Ohio's Senate seat tonight. Because of his ideological extremity and endorsement from Trump, most Democratic strategists and political prognosticators believe him to be a weaker general-election candidate than his competitors would have been. Indeed, Democrats even took out ads in favor of Moreno, trying to boost him to exactly this outcome.

This is not a completely baseless idea. After the 2022 midterms, I found that GOP primary candidates who were endorsed by Trump went on to lag the predictions for general-election Democratic by a vote margin of about 5 percentage points. That large of an effect could tip a close race in Ohio, so the expected vote calculus likely favors Democrats here.

But the political calculus is another matter. Democrats have been criticized in the past for endorsing Trump's chosen candidates as an electoral strategy on the grounds that it increases the likelihood of Washington passing Republican policies and pushing Trump's agenda. Given that the Senate is likely to go Republican in the fall, having Trump-endorsed Moreno in the halls of Congress may provide a higher ROI for Trump than having a Senator Dolan or LaRose. By pushing these ads, Democrats are betting the return on votes will outweigh the potential downside. That bet does not come without risk.

—G. Elliott Morris, 538