With incumbent Rep. Brad Wenstrup retiring from the dark red 2nd District in Ohio, the Republican primary tonight will almost certainly pick the seat's next representative. And with a crowded field of 11 candidates, the winner might even fall short of 30 percent because the vote is so fragmented. With 63 percent of the expected vote reporting, concrete business owner David Taylor leads with 26 percent, while restaurant franchisee Tim O'Hara and hiring agency operator Larry Kidd are running neck-and-neck for second place around 19 percent each. The good news for Taylor is that the places that have reported most of their expected vote are mostly the ones where he's performing worst. Moreover, he holds a big edge in Clermont County, which will probably have around 30 percent of the total primary vote. This race has been a tale of self-funders, as each of the leading three candidates put more than $1 million of their own personal funds into the contest.

—Geoffrey Skelley, 538

Democrats are likely to be pleased with the Moreno win in the GOP primary for Ohio's Senate seat tonight. Because of his ideological extremity and endorsement from Trump, most Democratic strategists and political prognosticators believe him to be a weaker general-election candidate than his competitors would have been. Indeed, Democrats even took out ads in favor of Moreno, trying to boost him to exactly this outcome.

This is not a completely baseless idea. After the 2022 midterms, I found that GOP primary candidates who were endorsed by Trump went on to lag the predictions for general-election Democratic by a vote margin of about 5 percentage points. That large of an effect could tip a close race in Ohio, so the expected vote calculus likely favors Democrats here.

But the political calculus is another matter. Democrats have been criticized in the past for endorsing Trump's chosen candidates as an electoral strategy on the grounds that it increases the likelihood of Washington passing Republican policies and pushing Trump's agenda. Given that the Senate is likely to go Republican in the fall, having Trump-endorsed Moreno in the halls of Congress may provide a higher ROI for Trump than having a Senator Dolan or LaRose. By pushing these ads, Democrats are betting the return on votes will outweigh the potential downside. That bet does not come without risk.

—G. Elliott Morris, 538

With 35 percent of the expected vote counted in the Republican presidential primary in Ohio, Nikki Haley looks to have won at least one county, according to the Associated Press. She leads 58-34 in Holmes County with over 95 percent of the expected vote counted. Notably, Holmes County has the largest Amish population in the country, with 48 percent of county residents identifying as Amish, per the U.S. Census.

—Mary Radcliffe, 538

With 32 percent of the expected vote in, the Chicago referendum that would raise some transfer taxes on property over $1 million to pay for homelessness initiatives is losing 44 to 56 percent, according to the Associated Press. The referendum is supported by progressives like Mayor Brandon Johnson, who say that the measure is needed to reduce the rising cost of housing in the city. But it's opposed by those who are worried that the property market is still too fragile after the COVID-19 pandemic. The referendum would increase transfer taxes on properties over $1 million, while decreasing those same taxes on properties worth less than that. The increased revenue would be used to fund homelessness services in a city that has struggled to house all of its residents in recent years.

—Cooper Burton, 538

Democrats (and allied independents) currently hold a bare majority in the U.S. Senate, with 51 seats to Republicans’ 49. But control of the chamber is at stake in November, and the Senate race in Ohio is one of a few competitive contests that could decide control of the chamber.

Three Republican contenders are facing off today for a chance to challenge incumbent Democrat Sherrod Brown in that contest: Matt Dolan, a state legislator running with the endorsement of former Ohio Sen. Rob Portman; Frank LaRose, the current Ohio Secretary of State running on a campaign of conservatism and electability; and Bernie Moreno, a businessman with endorsements from Trump, a dozen members of Congress including Ohio Sen. J.D. Vance and the Club for Growth PAC, one of the oldest conservative PACs in the country.

Moreno, who appeared alongside Trump in several campaign events this past weekend, has gained significant ground in the polls since the former president endorsed him in mid-December. Then, he was polling at 16 percent in 538’s polling average — and now he’s hovering in the mid- to-high-20s. Democrats view Moreno as the weakest candidate for the general election and last week began airing a television ad intended to boost his standing by “attacking” his conservative record and support for Trump ahead of Tuesday's primary.

But the polls show a tied race between Dolan and Moreno, who each lead LaRose by 10 percentage points. That’s too close for polls to provide a reliable signal of who is decisively leading: Per our database of historical polls, surveys of Senate primaries miss the margin between the winner and runner-up by 6.5 points on average.

Looking ahead to the general election, the winner of today’s Republican primary matters not just in deciding who might be Ohio’s next senator, but in deciding control of the Senate come 2025. Since West Virginia Democratic Sen. Joe Manchin decided to retire, prognosticators largely expect the Republicans to pick up at least one seat this November. That means Democrats and Republicans start their fight for the majority from a 50-50 tie, and Democrats need to at least hold on to the rest of their endangered seats — and for Biden to win — to maintain control.

Ohio is a red state, but Brown has managed to run ahead of expectations in previous cycles. So has fellow endangered Democrat, Montana Sen. Jon Tester. But neither of them have run in a presidential cycle since 2012, when President Barack Obama pulled off a surprising reelection and Democrats gained two seats in the Senate. Brown will face not just the strength of his opponent in November, but the partisanship of his constituents. The Cook Political Report rates the Ohio Senate race a toss-up.

—G. Elliott Morris, 538