With 34 percent of the expected vote in, incumbent Davis is well in the lead with 53 percent of the vote so far. His two top challengers, Conyears-Ervin and Collins, are nearly even for second place with 21 percent and 18 percent of the vote, respectively. Four Democrats ran in the primary against Davis in this deep blue district that includes parts of Chicago's west side; Davis has held the seat for 28 years. Collins has run to his left twice before and has been endorsed by progressive groups.

—Monica Potts, 538

In the Ohio Senate race, Moreno leads Dolan 40 percent to 37 percent with 21 percent of the expected vote reporting, but I'd make him a stronger favorite than that close margin suggests. Much of the vote tallied so far is from early and absentee votes, which are probably more favorable to Dolan. We've seen in previous elections that votes cast on Election Day tend to be better for more Trump-aligned candidates, which should benefit Moreno as Ohio starts to count more of those votes. For instance, around this hour of the evening in Ohio's 2022 Senate primary, Vance led with a tad less than 28 percent with a similar share of the vote reporting, but he wound up winning with 32 percent. That was a more crowded race, but you'd rather be Moreno at this point than Dolan.

—Geoffrey Skelley, 538

With just a shade under 20 percent of the expected vote counted in Ohio's 6th District, state Sen. Michael Rulli leads state Rep. Reggie Stoltzfus by 7 percentage points in the regularly scheduled primary and 6 points in the special election. Rulli's massive lead in his home base, Mahoning County, is giving him the early advantage.

—Jacob Rubashkin, Inside Elections

In the only contested Ohio Supreme Court primary today, Democratic 8th District Court of Appeals judge Lisa Forbes is up 64 percent to 36 percent over former public defender Terri Jamison with 26 percent of the expected vote in, according to the Associated Press. The winner will face Republican judge Dan Hawkins, who ran unopposed today, in November to fill the now-open seat of Republican Justice Joe Deters.

The current state Supreme Court is made up of three Democrats and four Republicans. Two of those Democratic justices are up for reelection, alongside Deters's seat. Deters is still running in November, but against his colleague, Democratic Justice Melody Stewart, for different seat on the court. If either Forbes or Jamison can flip Deters's old seat and Democrats can hold on to their other two incumbents, they would gain control of the state's highest court. That seems unlikely though, given Ohio's Republican lean and the results of recent Supreme Court elections in the state.

—Cooper Burton, 538

Democrats (and allied independents) currently hold a bare majority in the U.S. Senate, with 51 seats to Republicans’ 49. But control of the chamber is at stake in November, and the Senate race in Ohio is one of a few competitive contests that could decide control of the chamber.

Three Republican contenders are facing off today for a chance to challenge incumbent Democrat Sherrod Brown in that contest: Matt Dolan, a state legislator running with the endorsement of former Ohio Sen. Rob Portman; Frank LaRose, the current Ohio Secretary of State running on a campaign of conservatism and electability; and Bernie Moreno, a businessman with endorsements from Trump, a dozen members of Congress including Ohio Sen. J.D. Vance and the Club for Growth PAC, one of the oldest conservative PACs in the country.

Moreno, who appeared alongside Trump in several campaign events this past weekend, has gained significant ground in the polls since the former president endorsed him in mid-December. Then, he was polling at 16 percent in 538’s polling average — and now he’s hovering in the mid- to-high-20s. Democrats view Moreno as the weakest candidate for the general election and last week began airing a television ad intended to boost his standing by “attacking” his conservative record and support for Trump ahead of Tuesday's primary.

But the polls show a tied race between Dolan and Moreno, who each lead LaRose by 10 percentage points. That’s too close for polls to provide a reliable signal of who is decisively leading: Per our database of historical polls, surveys of Senate primaries miss the margin between the winner and runner-up by 6.5 points on average.

Looking ahead to the general election, the winner of today’s Republican primary matters not just in deciding who might be Ohio’s next senator, but in deciding control of the Senate come 2025. Since West Virginia Democratic Sen. Joe Manchin decided to retire, prognosticators largely expect the Republicans to pick up at least one seat this November. That means Democrats and Republicans start their fight for the majority from a 50-50 tie, and Democrats need to at least hold on to the rest of their endangered seats — and for Biden to win — to maintain control.

Ohio is a red state, but Brown has managed to run ahead of expectations in previous cycles. So has fellow endangered Democrat, Montana Sen. Jon Tester. But neither of them have run in a presidential cycle since 2012, when President Barack Obama pulled off a surprising reelection and Democrats gained two seats in the Senate. Brown will face not just the strength of his opponent in November, but the partisanship of his constituents. The Cook Political Report rates the Ohio Senate race a toss-up.

—G. Elliott Morris, 538