You didn’t think we’d forget, did you, dear reader? In Florida, Illinois and Ohio, ABC News is projecting that Trump and Biden have won their primaries.

—Mary Radcliffe, 538

Pretty much nothing that happens tonight will alter the view that the GOP is unmistakably Trump's party. Even if a Trump endorsee were to lose, the party is clearly behind Trump and most Republican candidates have aligned themselves with him. That's the recipe to generally appeal to GOP voters. It's true that Dolan could conceivably win the Republican Senate primary in Ohio, but if he does, it'll likely be with a small plurality around 40 percent. The majority of the party will be with the Trump-endorsed candidate (Moreno) or the one who has more closely aligned himself with Trump (LaRose) in what looks to have been a failed effort to win the primary.

—Geoffrey Skelley, 538

I've been keeping a close eye on Trump's Truth Social account, and one thing I noticed this time around is that his endorsement of Merrin in Ohio's 9th came fairly late in the game. He endorsed Moreno on December 19, but he didn't issue an endorsement in the 9th until yesterday afternoon!

Now, there may be reasons Trump waited to make an endorsement in the race. A key Trump ally in the state, Rep. Jim Jordan, had already endorsed Riedel, so maybe Trump was trying not to get on his bad side. But the fact that he waited so long will almost certainly diminish the impact of the endorsement with voters.

When it comes to the Senate race, Tia, the fact that it's as close as it appears to be even given Trump's endorsement may already tell us something about his impact in these sorts of races. The non-MAGA establishment obviously still holds significant sway among voters, at least in Ohio.

All that is a long-winded way of saying that I'm not sure Trump is showing much strength with his Ohio endorsements. The races are very close, so whatever he's doing hasn't seemed to impact the electorate as much as he would probably hope to.

—Mary Radcliffe, 538

The result in Ohio's Senate primary is probably the most germane to Trump's influence in the party (or at least among the primary electorate) because Dolan alone has sometimes distanced himself from Trump. Now, he's decidedly less Trump-skeptical this time around than he was in 2022, but he's still the closest thing to a more pre-Trump traditional politician in any of these races. Moreno, meanwhile, was an also-ran until Trump picked him as his champion. (He flunked out of the 2022 race despite self-funding.) If Trump can push him to a win like he did J.D. Vance two years ago, that's a sign of strength. In the other contests, I'm not sure there's much to be gleaned. Mike Bost and Darren Bailey are both running very Trump-heavy campaigns. Bailey wasn't endorsed by Trump, but still features him in his ads! Not sure it says much if that's a winning message. And in Ohio's 9th, Merrin may have the endorsement, but Riedel has been working overtime to show his loyalty after those embarrassing clips leaked. Plus, Merrin's only had the endorsement for a few days, and it hasn't featured in any TV ads in the race.

—Jacob Rubashkin, Inside Elections

Democrats (and allied independents) currently hold a bare majority in the U.S. Senate, with 51 seats to Republicans’ 49. But control of the chamber is at stake in November, and the Senate race in Ohio is one of a few competitive contests that could decide control of the chamber.

Three Republican contenders are facing off today for a chance to challenge incumbent Democrat Sherrod Brown in that contest: Matt Dolan, a state legislator running with the endorsement of former Ohio Sen. Rob Portman; Frank LaRose, the current Ohio Secretary of State running on a campaign of conservatism and electability; and Bernie Moreno, a businessman with endorsements from Trump, a dozen members of Congress including Ohio Sen. J.D. Vance and the Club for Growth PAC, one of the oldest conservative PACs in the country.

Moreno, who appeared alongside Trump in several campaign events this past weekend, has gained significant ground in the polls since the former president endorsed him in mid-December. Then, he was polling at 16 percent in 538’s polling average — and now he’s hovering in the mid- to-high-20s. Democrats view Moreno as the weakest candidate for the general election and last week began airing a television ad intended to boost his standing by “attacking” his conservative record and support for Trump ahead of Tuesday's primary.

But the polls show a tied race between Dolan and Moreno, who each lead LaRose by 10 percentage points. That’s too close for polls to provide a reliable signal of who is decisively leading: Per our database of historical polls, surveys of Senate primaries miss the margin between the winner and runner-up by 6.5 points on average.

Looking ahead to the general election, the winner of today’s Republican primary matters not just in deciding who might be Ohio’s next senator, but in deciding control of the Senate come 2025. Since West Virginia Democratic Sen. Joe Manchin decided to retire, prognosticators largely expect the Republicans to pick up at least one seat this November. That means Democrats and Republicans start their fight for the majority from a 50-50 tie, and Democrats need to at least hold on to the rest of their endangered seats — and for Biden to win — to maintain control.

Ohio is a red state, but Brown has managed to run ahead of expectations in previous cycles. So has fellow endangered Democrat, Montana Sen. Jon Tester. But neither of them have run in a presidential cycle since 2012, when President Barack Obama pulled off a surprising reelection and Democrats gained two seats in the Senate. Brown will face not just the strength of his opponent in November, but the partisanship of his constituents. The Cook Political Report rates the Ohio Senate race a toss-up.

—G. Elliott Morris, 538