With incumbent Rep. Brad Wenstrup retiring from the dark red 2nd District in Ohio, the Republican primary tonight will almost certainly pick the seat's next representative. And with a crowded field of 11 candidates, the winner might even fall short of 30 percent because the vote is so fragmented. With 63 percent of the expected vote reporting, concrete business owner David Taylor leads with 26 percent, while restaurant franchisee Tim O'Hara and hiring agency operator Larry Kidd are running neck-and-neck for second place around 19 percent each. The good news for Taylor is that the places that have reported most of their expected vote are mostly the ones where he's performing worst. Moreover, he holds a big edge in Clermont County, which will probably have around 30 percent of the total primary vote. This race has been a tale of self-funders, as each of the leading three candidates put more than $1 million of their own personal funds into the contest.

—Geoffrey Skelley, 538

Democrats are likely to be pleased with the Moreno win in the GOP primary for Ohio's Senate seat tonight. Because of his ideological extremity and endorsement from Trump, most Democratic strategists and political prognosticators believe him to be a weaker general-election candidate than his competitors would have been. Indeed, Democrats even took out ads in favor of Moreno, trying to boost him to exactly this outcome.

This is not a completely baseless idea. After the 2022 midterms, I found that GOP primary candidates who were endorsed by Trump went on to lag the predictions for general-election Democratic by a vote margin of about 5 percentage points. That large of an effect could tip a close race in Ohio, so the expected vote calculus likely favors Democrats here.

But the political calculus is another matter. Democrats have been criticized in the past for endorsing Trump's chosen candidates as an electoral strategy on the grounds that it increases the likelihood of Washington passing Republican policies and pushing Trump's agenda. Given that the Senate is likely to go Republican in the fall, having Trump-endorsed Moreno in the halls of Congress may provide a higher ROI for Trump than having a Senator Dolan or LaRose. By pushing these ads, Democrats are betting the return on votes will outweigh the potential downside. That bet does not come without risk.

—G. Elliott Morris, 538

With 35 percent of the expected vote counted in the Republican presidential primary in Ohio, Nikki Haley looks to have won at least one county, according to the Associated Press. She leads 58-34 in Holmes County with over 95 percent of the expected vote counted. Notably, Holmes County has the largest Amish population in the country, with 48 percent of county residents identifying as Amish, per the U.S. Census.

—Mary Radcliffe, 538

With 32 percent of the expected vote in, the Chicago referendum that would raise some transfer taxes on property over $1 million to pay for homelessness initiatives is losing 44 to 56 percent, according to the Associated Press. The referendum is supported by progressives like Mayor Brandon Johnson, who say that the measure is needed to reduce the rising cost of housing in the city. But it's opposed by those who are worried that the property market is still too fragile after the COVID-19 pandemic. The referendum would increase transfer taxes on properties over $1 million, while decreasing those same taxes on properties worth less than that. The increased revenue would be used to fund homelessness services in a city that has struggled to house all of its residents in recent years.

—Cooper Burton, 538

One of today's most consequential primaries for the general election is taking place in Ohio's 9th District. According to Daily Kos Elections, Trump would have carried the district 51 percent to 48 percent in 2020. But in 2022, incumbent Democratic Rep. Marcy Kaptur defeated Republican Air Force veteran J.R. Majewski 57 percent to 43 percent here thanks to Majewski's weaknesses as a candidate: He exaggerated his military service, attended the Jan. 6 rally (though he says he didn't enter the Capitol) and once subscribed to the QAnon conspiracy theory.

Majewski quickly announced he would run again in 2024, agitating Republican operatives who feared he would once again throw away a winnable House seat. But to their relief, he withdrew from the race a few weeks ago, leaving the primary to state Rep. Derek Merrin and former state Rep. Craig Riedel. Riedel was originally the top alternative to Majewski, but a couple of his pro-Trump supporters withdrew their endorsement of him after audio leaked of him calling Trump "arrogant." That sent GOP elders scrambling to find a new alternative to Majewski, and Merrin — who was in line to be the speaker of the Ohio state House last year until a faction of renegade Republicans joined Democrats to elect a different Republican — jumped into the race just before the filing deadline.

The primary is far from settled, though. While Trump endorsed Merrin just yesterday, and Speaker Mike Johnson endorsed Merrin in January, many establishment Republicans, such as House Majority Leader Steve Scalise and Majority Whip Tom Emmer, are still with Riedel. And Merrin's late entry into the race means he trails Riedel badly in fundraising, $175,000 to $1.2 million. And while he's no Majewski, a Riedel win could still give Republicans headaches: He's aligned with the tea party movement and has previously expressed interest in joining the hardline House Freedom Caucus.

—Nathaniel Rakich, 538